Morning Consult Senate Approvals

[heatcharger]

Link.

Numbers for vulnerable 2018 Senators:

Heitkamp: 60/28
Nelson: 53/25
Donnelly: 53/25
Manchin: 57/31
Brown: 50/29
Casey: 46/31
Tester: 50/39
McCaskill: 46/38
Heller: 41/33
Baldwin: 42/38
Flake: 37/45

Surprised Schumer is still so high, but these have always seemed inflated.

[Skunk]

"In Oklahoma, GOP Sens. James Lankford and Jim Inhofe saw their net approval ratings slide 7 points and 11 points, respectively, since the first quarter."

This makes me happy.

[Holmes]

Their "highest disapproval" list is a little bit weird considering some have a 50%+ approval rating.

[Shadows]

Top 3 -

Bernie Sanders  (D-VT)         75%       21%     +54
Brian Schatz      (D-Hi)          69%      21%     +48
Mazie Hirono      (D-Hi)          67%      23%     +44

Under-water Ratings -

John McCain 43/47/-4
Mitch McConnell 41/48/-7
Jeff Flake 37/45/-8

2020 Contenders -

Merkley +33
Klobuchar +31
Gillibrand +30
Harris +27
Warren +22
Murphy +20
Booker+18

Vulnerable Senators in 2018 -

Heitkamp 60/28/+32
Nelson 53/25/+28
Donnelly 53/25/+28
Manchin 57/31/+26
Brown 50/29/+21
Tester 50/39/+11
Heller 41/33/+8
McCaskill 46/38/+8
Stabenow 45/37/+8
Baldwin 42/38/+4

https://morningconsult.com/july-2017-senator-rankings/

[Dr. Arch]

Wow, Heidi

[Brittain33]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

[Webnicz]

Always surprised at how good approval ratings are for individual senators when the congressional approvals are always so low

[windjammer]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

[jamestroll]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

And people expect McCaskill to lose by a 3 to 1 margin or more.

[DavidB.]

Surprised Schumer is still so high, but these have always seemed inflated.

Why? Many Republicans vote for him every time.

[windjammer]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

And people expect McCaskill to lose by a 3 to 1 margin or more.

Well in my view she's more ebdangered than him because she's too liberal for this state but she's not DOA either.

[Heisenberg]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

Pence being VP will help the Republican challenger. Trust me, he will do everything he can to win it back. Also, he's still a vote for Schumer, relatively anonymous (though he has seemed to improve), and  has tacked to the left on some issues, like Planned Parenthood.

[windjammer]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

Pence being VP will help the Republican challenger. Trust me, he will do everything he can to win it back. Also, he's still a vote for Schumer, relatively anonymous (though he has seemed to improve), and  has tacked to the left on some issues, like Planned Parenthood.

Yes but Donnelly is running for reelection, not for the IN senate republican primaries so that doesn't particularly latter for the general.

[Coraxion]

Bad news for Flake.

[Heisenberg]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

Pence being VP will help the Republican challenger. Trust me, he will do everything he can to win it back. Also, he's still a vote for Schumer, relatively anonymous (though he has seemed to improve), and  has tacked to the left on some issues, like Planned Parenthood.

Yes but Donnelly is running for reelection, not for the IN senate republican primaries so that doesn't particularly latter for the general.

Pence (and his brother Greg) will set up a strong, powerful ground game to get Republicans out in full force. Also, polarization has gotten stronger in the past 5 years.

[Heisenberg]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

Pence being VP will help the Republican challenger. Trust me, he will do everything he can to win it back. Also, he's still a vote for Schumer, relatively anonymous (though he has seemed to improve), and  has tacked to the left on some issues, like Planned Parenthood.

Yes but Donnelly is running for reelection, not for the IN senate republican primaries so that doesn't particularly latter for the general.

Pence (and his brother Greg) will set up a strong, powerful ground game to get Republicans out in full force. Also, polarization has gotten stronger in the past 5 years.

Pence isn't all that popular in Indiana so I doubt this really matters. Remember how Obama was supposed to save Giannoulias in a bluer state in 2010? Also, Castle would've wal tzed into the Delaware seat had the primary electorate not gone full retard. Biden wouldn't have saved Coons

Giannoulias had the Blagojevich corruption problem, Messer (or whoever) won't have anything similar. And Delaware is a small state, so retail politics were important (though polarization has gotten much worse, and Castle was SUPER popular (Delaware Republicans don't have anyone else like that anymore).

[Cactus Jack]

Brown has the same approval rating as Portman

Combined with the awful candidate running against him, that's precisely why I think Brown is the likeliest vulnerable Senator to replicate Portman's performance.

[_]

Baldwin only +4 wew.

[Shadows]

Baldwin has got only a 4% approval which is sad because she is a single payer supporter & needs to be re-elected.

But Baldwin said she was looking forward to the introduction of a "Medicare for All" bill in the Senate and would likely support it. "Well, certainly I'll look at the bill when it comes in, but I anticipate I will," she said. "It's been a long position of mine."

https://www.wpr.org/baldwin-likely-support-single-payer-health-care-bill

[_]

These are always a bit iffy, but Baldwin +4 is Believable with how polarized WI is thanks to Walker.  Also ND validating MT's Claims.

[windjammer]

That is better for Donnelly than I would have expected.

I don't understand why some people believe he's DOA. He fits the state ideologically. It's true toss up not likely rep

Pence being VP will help the Republican challenger. Trust me, he will do everything he can to win it back. Also, he's still a vote for Schumer, relatively anonymous (though he has seemed to improve), and  has tacked to the left on some issues, like Planned Parenthood.

Yes but Donnelly is running for reelection, not for the IN senate republican primaries so that doesn't particularly latter for the general.

Pence (and his brother Greg) will set up a strong, powerful ground game to get Republicans out in full force. Also, polarization has gotten stronger in the past 5 years.

You are talking about the guy who wasn't even sure to be reelected GOV in Indiana because of how much he ed With his gay apartheid bill. He's not some political titans.

[jamestroll]

Honestly we are just going to spend the next 16 months of so arguing and repeating the same lines over and over again.

Basically the argument will be whether midterms favor the GOP or the party out of power.

[_]

Honestly we are just going to spend the next 16 months of so arguing and repeating the same lines over and over again.

Basically the argument will be whether midterms favor the GOP or the party out of power.

And if Trump will ruin everything for the GOP.

Its just an endless cycle of argument that isn't good for any of us, yet we do it anyway because we're all Human and thus all idiots.

[Dr. Arch]

Baldwin only +4 wew.

That's normal in Wisconsin. The state is ultra polarized.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Donnelly 53/25/+28

And I'm crazy for thinking Donnelly isn't as vulnerable as conventional wisdom would suggest.

Michigan folks - is there any chance that Stabenow loses? She's a Michigan institution, but them approval rankings are pretty bad.