In 2020, Will Texas vote to the left or right of 2016?

[icemanj]

Texas is usually talked about as trending Dem in the coming decades. The state voted 7.01% more Dem in the 2-party vote in 2016 compared to 2012. I know a lot of this is because of third party candidates, but do you think this trend will continue into the next election or will it swing back? By how much?

I think it will swing back somewhere around 2008 levels, even if a Dem wins the Presidency.

[Technocracy Timmy]

More GOP (I think Pence will be the nominee though).

[Sumner 1868]

Texas ain't flipping.

[TheSaint250]

More GOP (I think Pence will be the nominee though).

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Why is this even a question? It's trending democratic, and democrats will probably do better in 2020 than 2016 overall.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Why is this even a question? It's trending democratic, and democrats will probably do better in 2020 than 2016 overall.

We're talking about how it'll swing not necessarily trend. Trump was a really poor fit for the state so if one assumes that he isn't the nominee then you can see why it would swing to the GOP. Remember that Texas precincts showed a lot suburban white voters who usually vote republican either go third party, leave the top ticket blank, or vote for Clinton as a protest vote.

[Different Republican]

More GOP (I think Pence will be the nominee though).

[Person Man]

I am expecting a situation where Trump barely wins the popular vote by improving by about 3 but only improving in Texas by about 1 or 2 tops... or losing by the high s.d. nationally but Texas being TCTC at midnight. I'm expecting Texas to go from R+6 to R+4 ish.

I guess a war or a false flag operation that cracks down either directly or on the credibility of the opposition could change this.

[TDAS04]

I could see Texas continue to trend left, but it won't flip just yet.

[cvparty]

interesting replies

[RINO Tom]

If Trump is very unpopular/going to lose re-election: the same as 2016, possibly SLIGHTLY to the left
If Trump wins re-election: to the right
If Pence or another Republican is the nominee: significantly to the right

[Beet]

Assuming Trump is the nominee, I can see Beto O'Rourke winning next year and Texas going Democratic in 2020. You could see Trump holding onto all the Midwestern states and picking up Minnesota and Maine, but the Democrats picking up Florida and Texas.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Trump's approval ratings stay where they currently are, and they're no major scandals between now and 2020: He wins Texas by 7-8%

If Trump's approval ratings slip to ~35% by 2020: He wins Texas by 3-5%

If Trump makes a huge turn-around and ends up being near even in terms of approval ratings: he wins Texas by 10-12%

If Pence or someone else is the GOP nominee they probably win Texas by 10-15%, depending on how well they do with Hispanics.

In order for Trump to lose Texas, he'd basically have to have approval ratings in the low 30's, and several major scandals before Election Day 2020. Julian Castro as the D nominee doesn't hurt either.

[icemanj]

Texas ain't flipping.

to be fair... not what I asked

Surprised how many said Dem actually.

[Person Man]

I am expecting a situation where Trump barely wins the popular vote by improving by about 3 but only improving in Texas by about 1 or 2 tops... or losing by the high s.d. nationally but Texas being TCTC at midnight. I'm expecting Texas to go from R+6 to R+4 ish.

Basically this.  Right now, I expect Trump to win the PV by 0.5-2.5% in 2020 and he will probably win Texas by about 10% while doing that, so it would swing right but trend left again. 

For him to get a 2% PV margin would require the biggest pro-incumbent swing since 1984. I see him doing like W, Bill (and end up winning by 1)  or Obama did. (and lose by 5 or 6).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Roll up that map of Texas, it will not be needed in ten years.

[Xing]

I'm guessing it will trend slightly Republican, which might still mean that it votes slightly to the left of 2016, depending on the national PV margin.

[MillennialModerate]

If Trump continues on the path he is on and ANY Red state votes more GOP than '16 than that means partisanship has hopelessly strangled us. If ever an incumbent deserved not to win re-election it would be Trump, unless things drastically change or the Dems come up with a HORRENDOUS candidate.

[Person Man]

If Trump continues on the path he is on and ANY Red state votes more GOP than '16 than that means partisanship has hopelessly strangled us. If ever an incumbent deserved not to win re-election it would be Trump, unless things drastically change or the Dems come up with a HORRENDOUS candidate.

Mhm. Then it might be time to totally start over in offering a non-right alternative.

[mvd10]

It probably will vote to the left of 2016, but not by much. I initially thought the 2020 coalitions were going to look more like the 2012 coalitions because of disappointed Trump supporters in the Rust Belt and a lot of "well he wasn't that bad" white suburbanites in Texas and Georgia but I'm not so sure about that anymore.

Anyway, I agree that college-educated whites won't vote Democratic in the near future (except maybe 2020 if Trump is a COLOSSAL failure). After Trump the GOP will nominate types like Pence and Haley again (Trumpism is as much as a personality cult as an ideology and I don't see someone who can repeat what Trump did) and the GOP will go back to winning college-educated whites by double digits (though not by as much as pre-Trump).

[I’m not Stu]

More Democratic. Especially if Trump runs for a second term.

[Young Conservative]

More GOP. I don't think Trump will be our nominee again.

[GGSETTER]

Why is this even a question? It's trending democratic, and democrats will probably do better in 2020 than 2016 overall.

But it's not though. The truth is Trump was a bad fit for the state. One election doesn't mean a trend also the Democrats only picked up like one legislative seat in Texas and it was on the State Level. This was in despite the Republican Presidential Nominee Margins collapsing in the state. Do you know what that means? The People of Texas voted as Republican as they alaways do but a lot of them left the President Box blank.

[Nyvin]

I'd expect the big urban areas to continue to trend left, and that might be enough to swing the whole state left possibly, but the Dems still have a lot of ground to lose in the rural areas, especially in the South.

The population trend undoubtedly favors the Democrats, Clinton gained 550k votes compared to Trump's gain of 100k over Romney.  It will be quite a while before that's enough to make the state competitive though,  possibly not until 2028.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Why is this even a question? It's trending democratic, and democrats will probably do better in 2020 than 2016 overall.

 I disagree. The gap closing compared to 2012 was almost entirely because of third party candidates. Hillary only over performed Obama by a couple of points. Never Trumpers took a lot of normal GOP votes away. Even if Trump isn't super popular, a lot of those reluctant GOP voters will come back home barring a major scandal or meltdown. A more establishment GOP candidate or Ted Cruz would have won Texas by a similar margin to Mitt Romney.