In 2020, Will Texas vote to the left or right of 2016?

[Person Man]

I am expecting a situation where Trump barely wins the popular vote by improving by about 3 but only improving in Texas by about 1 or 2 tops... or losing by the high s.d. nationally but Texas being TCTC at midnight. I'm expecting Texas to go from R+6 to R+4 ish.

I guess a war or a false flag operation that cracks down either directly or on the credibility of the opposition could change this.

[Person Man]

I am expecting a situation where Trump barely wins the popular vote by improving by about 3 but only improving in Texas by about 1 or 2 tops... or losing by the high s.d. nationally but Texas being TCTC at midnight. I'm expecting Texas to go from R+6 to R+4 ish.

Basically this.  Right now, I expect Trump to win the PV by 0.5-2.5% in 2020 and he will probably win Texas by about 10% while doing that, so it would swing right but trend left again. 

For him to get a 2% PV margin would require the biggest pro-incumbent swing since 1984. I see him doing like W, Bill (and end up winning by 1)  or Obama did. (and lose by 5 or 6).

[Person Man]

If Trump continues on the path he is on and ANY Red state votes more GOP than '16 than that means partisanship has hopelessly strangled us. If ever an incumbent deserved not to win re-election it would be Trump, unless things drastically change or the Dems come up with a HORRENDOUS candidate.

Mhm. Then it might be time to totally start over in offering a non-right alternative.