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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Robespierre, The Musical, Apocrypha)
| | |-+  Election Night 2004: Bush vs. Clinton
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Author Topic: Election Night 2004: Bush vs. Clinton  (Read 678 times)
lwp2004
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« on: July 12, 2017, 01:05:57 pm »
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NBC Election night theme: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQIAzjDaZWI

'Welcome to NBC News's coverage of the 2004 US Presidential Election, I'm Brian Williams. The election between President George W. Bush and New York Senator Hillary Clinton is a closely contested race, so let's take a look at the polls and media predictions coming into tonight:

Polls:


"Light blue signifies 'Lean Republican' states, light red signifies 'Lean Democratic' states. The Medium colors represent 'Likely Republican' and 'Likely Democratic' states. The darkest colors are 'Safe Republican' and 'Safe Democratic' states. In the polls, Senator Clinton leads President Bush with 281 Electoral Votes to 257 Electoral Votes."

"Here are some media predictions, starting with our own prediction:"

Clinton: 317
Bush: 221

"Here is CBS New's predictions"

Clinton: 378
Bush: 160

"And Fox New's"

Bush: 277
Clinton: 261

UP NEXT: 7:00 PM POLL CLOSINGS (ALL BASED OFF OF 270TOWIN.COM CLOSING TIMES)
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2017, 01:08:00 pm »
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Interesting. What is the political context in which Clinton is leading in Montana, Louisiana, etc.?
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lwp2004
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2017, 01:14:22 pm »
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Interesting. What is the political context in which Clinton is leading in Montana, Louisiana, etc.?

Bill Clinton helped her a lot in the states he won in '92 and '96 which helped her gain followers in not just Louisiana and Montana but also Missouri and Tennessee.
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
lwp2004
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2017, 01:35:50 pm »
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"Ok, here we go. At 7 PM, we can make our first projections of the night:

NBC News can now project that President Bush will win the states of Indiana worth 11 Electoral Votes, Kentucky worth 8 Electoral Votes and South Carolina, also worth 8 Electoral Votes. We can call the state of Vermont for Senator Clinton, worth 3 Electoral Votes. The states of Georgia and Virginia are too close to call.

Current Map:


Bush: 27
Clinton: 3
Too Close to Call: 28

"Now at 7:30 we now have polls in from North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. We can call West Virginia for President Bush. North Carolina and Ohio are too close to call. We can now also call Georgia for President Bush. Virginia is still too close to call"

Current Map:


Bush: 47
Clinton: 3
Too Close to Call: 48

UP NEXT: 8:00 and 8:30 poll closings
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
lwp2004
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2017, 05:44:14 pm »
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"It's now 8:00 and we have results from many states. Because there is so many, we are introducing green for Too Early To Call, and keeping yellow as too close to call."

"Here we go.

We can call the states of Alabama worth 9 Electoral Votes, Mississippi worth 6 Electoral Votes, and Oklahoma worth 7 Electoral Votes for President Bush.

We can call the states of Connecticut worth 7 Electoral Votes, Delaware worth 3, Illinois worth 21, Maine and it's 1st Congressional district worth a total of 3 Electoral Votes, Maryland worth 10, Massachusetts worth 12, New Jersey worth 15, Rhode Island worth 4 and Washington D.C. worth 3 for Senator Clinton.

The states of Florida and New Hampshire are too close to call, the states of Missouri, Maine's 2nd Congressional and Pennsylvania are too early to call.

We can also call the state of Virginia for President Bush."

Current Map:


8:30 PM

"We have one poll closing from the state of Arkansas, which we will classify as too close to call. We can also now classify Missouri and Pennsylvania as too close to call, no longer too early. We can also call Maine's 2nd for Senator Clinton."

Current Map:

Clinton: 82
Bush: 82
Too Close To Call: 104

8:47

"We can now call the state of Arkansas for Senator Clinton, carrying that state in which she was once the First Lady"

Updated Map:

Clinton: 88
Bush: 82
Too Close To Call: 98
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
lwp2004
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2017, 05:53:30 pm »
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"We would like to welcome in Senator Clinton's running mate, Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa here tonight in New York City. Tom, how have your expectations panned out so far."

"Well Brian, we did not expect to win Arkansas, so that's a big plus for our campaign"

"At the 9:00 poll closings, how do you expect to do?"

"Great."

"Well thank you Tom, and good luck tonight"

"Thanks for having me Brian"


Senator Clinton and Senator Harkin on the Campaign Trail
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
lwp2004
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2017, 11:18:53 am »
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"It's 9:00 and we have a lot of poll closings coming up.

We can call the states of Kansas, all of Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming for President Bush.

We can call the state New York for Senator Clinton.

The states of Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin are too close to call.

The state of Arizona is too early to call."

Current Map:

Bush: 136
Clinton: 119
Too Close to Call: 158
Too Early to Call: 10

"It's 9:10 and we can call Arizona for President Bush"

9:30

'It's 9:30 and we have some more returns.

We can call the state of Utah for President Bush.

The states of Montana, Iowa and Nevada are too close to call. We also have returns now from Tennessee, which is also too close to call"

9:40

"The states of North Carolina and New Mexico have been called for President Bush"

Current map:

Bush: 171
Clinton: 119
Too Close to Call: 164
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2017, 05:45:03 pm »
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Loving it!
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2017, 06:38:21 pm »
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This is looking very interesting...
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SlippingJimmy
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2017, 08:51:17 pm »
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I am skeptical of Bush's chances to pull this one out. If he wins the rest of the interior West (MT, ID, NV, CO) along with AK, NH, OH, LA, TN, and FL, he will still only be at 266 EV, meaning that he will either have to win one of WI/MI/PA or break Clinton's MIMAL chain (presumably by winning MO or IA). Both are hard to accomplish, and this assumes that he wins all the previously mentioned states. I predict a Clinton victory.
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lwp2004
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2017, 12:02:04 pm »
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10:24

"We have some states to call.

The state of Tennessee will go to President Bush, as will the states of Nevada and New Hampshire. The state of Minnesota will go to Senator Clinton."

Current Map:


Bush: 191
Clinton: 129
Too Close to Call: 134

11:00

"It's now 11:00 and we have poll closings:

We can call the states of California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington for Senator Clinton. We can call the state of Idaho for President Bush. We can also call Montana for President Bush."

11:24

"We have a major projection: the state of Louisiana will go to Senator Clinton."

Current Map:


Clinton: 215
Bush: 198
Too Close to Call: 122
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
lwp2004
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2017, 10:31:25 am »
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12:09

"We have a projection to make: the state of Colorado will go to President Bush. Also, the state of Michigan will go to Senator Clinton."

Current Map:

Clinton: 232
Bush: 207

Rachel Maddow: "I really see no way of Bush winning tonight. Unless he can carry almost every state left, including the rest of Clinton's MIMAL chain-"

Williams: "Excuse me Rachel but we have a major projection to make: The state of Missouri will go to President Bush, as he breaks Clinton's MIMAL chain."

Maddow: Wow.


Clinton: 232
Bush: 218

1 AM

"We can call the state of Alaska for President Bush.

We also have a major projection: the state of Pennsylvania will go to Senator Clinton, as will the state of Iowa. We can also say that President Bush is the ''apparent winner'' in the state of Wisconsin."


Clinton: 260
Bush: 231
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2017, 12:32:52 pm »
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How did Clinton win LA? Good TL!!!
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2017, 12:37:19 pm »
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Enjoying this TL. Wondering if Clinton loss in WI but victory in LA is a sign of a new type of political alignment
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lwp2004
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2017, 03:22:21 pm »
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How did Clinton win LA? Good TL!!!

With help from good 'ol Bill
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2017, 03:52:57 pm »
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I expect Bush to win Florida
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lwp2004
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2017, 09:15:20 am »
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2:09 AM

"We can now project that President Bush will win the state of Florida, meaning that this election will go down to the state of Ohio."


Clinton: 260
Bush: 258

"We now take a live look at Bush's campaign headquarters in Dallas, Texas. The supporters have just gotten the news that Florida has been called for Bush, meaning that the state of Ohio, won by bush in 2000, is all that's left."



"With 98% in, Ohio is led by President Bush by about 607 votes. This is looking like this may turn into 2000 in Florida all over again."
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
lwp2004
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« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2017, 08:24:44 am »
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4:09 AM

"WE HAVE A MAJOR PROJECTION TO MAKE: THE STATE OF OHIO IS CALLED FOR SENATOR CLINTON, MEANING THAT SHE WILL BECOME THE 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!"

Senator Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA), 280 Electoral Votes
President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY), 258 Electoral Votes

November 21, 2004
Bush campaign declares recount in Ohio

"We have new information that shows that I have a lead in Ohio."

Ohio Election Results:
Clinton: 2,858,672
Bush: 2,858,607

New Information:
Bush: 2,858,692
Clinton: 2,858,672

"The FEC has decided to look into the election, and has stripped Senator Clinton's status as President-elect until recounts have happened."

NEXT: Real Results
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2017 Governor Endorsements:
NJ- Kim Guadagno (R)
VA- Ed Gillespie (R)

2018 Governor:
CA- Gavin Newsom (D)
CT- Mark D. Boughton (R)
NY- Peter King (R) (not declared)
FL- Mike Huckabee (R) (not declared)

2018 Senate:
CT- Tony Hwang (R) (not declared)
FL- Rick Scott (R) (not declared)
IN- Joe Donnelly (D)
ME- Angus King (I)
MA- Curt Schilling (R) (not declared)
MT- Jon Tester (D)
NV- Jackie Rosen (D) (as a protest to Heller)
ND- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
OH- Josh Mandel (R)
WV- Joe M
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