ME-02: Jonathan Fulford (D) in

[MAINEiac4434]

http://bangordailynews.com/2017/07/06/politics/bar-harbor-restaurateur-to-run-for-2nd-district-seat/

He ran for a State House seat in Bar Harbor in 2012 and lost to Elsie Flemings, the incumbent Democrat, in the primary.

Emily Cain (the two-time loser to Poliquin) hasn't declared her intentions yet, but she faced no challengers in 2016. Considering she lost twice, I think her career is basically over unless she has another solid tenure in the State House or State Senate.

Poliquin is not popular after his votes for the AHCA and his refusal to hold town hall meetings, and is vulnerable in what was the traditionally Democratic district in the state.

[MAINEiac4434]

Related:

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/07/12/maine-rep-poliquin-targeted-in-videos-over-health-care-legislation/

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Lean R

[Young Conservative]

Do you have a poll showing that he isn't popular? I think it isn't fair to make such a comment without evidence.

Also, likely R (assuming Poliquin runs)

[Xing]

Glad Democrats might not be stuck with Cain again. I think people have been too quick to assume that ME-02 is the new West Virginia and is now a lost cause for Democrats. Poliquin is definitely vulnerable.

[MAINEiac4434]

Do you have a poll showing that he isn't popular? I think it isn't fair to make such a comment without evidence.

Also, likely R (assuming Poliquin runs)

No polling yet, but the ACHA (which Poliquin has voted for twice) is completely unpopular and Poliquin refuses to answer to it. This race will be about healthcare, and if Poliquin cannot come up with a good answer for voting for the AHCA, he's in trouble. If he keeps avoiding constituents, he'll be in trouble (in a small state like Maine, constituent services are everything, it's how Collins and Snowe stuck around for so long despite being to the right of the state).

Poliquin was never extremely popular to begin with (Trump and LePage cruised to victories in the second district while Poliquin limped to single-digit wins over an out-of touch ultra lib feminist in GOP-positive years), and is much more wealthy than the average second districter. He's viewed by many as an aloof, out-of-touch rich guy who was the lesser of two evils (Cain is a Hillary clone, and Hillary was not a good fit for the second district at all). Now he has a voting record contrary to his constituents wants, no LePage or gun rights referendum question to coattail, and an unpopular Republican president. I still think he's favored (lot of Trump acolytes in the second district, and playing to them isn't the worst strategy), but he's not a shoe-in.

[Kingpoleon]

I would like to see Baldacci(Joe, but John would be nice, too) run.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R.

[Ebsy]

ME-02 is one of those seats that is almost certain to fall in a wave.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

My hypothetical endorsement is still with Troy Jackson for either ME-2 or ME Gov.

Like, even if you don't like him, he's the best fit for this district bar none.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I highly doubt ME-02 is the new WV-03. ME has among the most unpredictable election outcomes, and is probably the most elastic state in the nation, at least downballot. That being said, while Trump won it by 10%, Poliquin isn't exactly a strong incumbent.

[MAINEiac4434]

My hypothetical endorsement is still with Troy Jackson for either ME-2 or ME Gov.

Like, even if you don't like him, he's the best fit for this district bar none.

Agreed. Still can't believe Cain beat him in the 2014 primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Also rooting for Troy Jackson to get in.

[Miles]

My hypothetical endorsement is still with Troy Jackson for either ME-2 or ME Gov.

Like, even if you don't like him, he's the best fit for this district bar none.

[Horsemask]

My hypothetical endorsement is still with Troy Jackson for either ME-2 or ME Gov.

Like, even if you don't like him, he's the best fit for this district bar none.

This, a million times over. Hoping Jackson runs. I was hoping he would run for Governor.

[MAINEiac4434]

Another former State Senate candidate, Jonathan Fulford, has announced he's challenging Poliquin:

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/07/19/fulford-to-challenge-poliquin-in-race-for-maines-2nd-congressional-district/

He very narrowly lost to Republican senate president Mike Thibodeau in 2016. He is focusing on single payer as a major plank to his campaign.

I think having small businessmen like Rich and Fulford who espouse clearly progressive ideals is great, much better than having a career politician and Hillary clone Emily Cain run again.

[Cactus Jack]

I think having small businessmen like Rich and Fulford who espouse clearly progressive ideals is great, much better than having a career politician and Hillary clone Emily Cain run again.

Agreed. The Democratic Party's obsession with career politicians, retreads, and Generic D candidates is largely what's been killing them on the federal and statewide level. They need to build a new bench from the ground up and bring fresh faces into the House.

[maga2020]

Last cycle the democrats have any shot at it, if they lose, ME-2 is solid GOP.

[Young Conservative]

Likely R. Also, you keep saying he "isn't popular" but you do not have any polling to support that.

[This is Eharding, guys]

Tossup, maybe Tilt D. The Obamacare fight has definitely hurt the GOP in Maine.

This is definitely one of the dozen or so seats that will determine control of the House.

[MAINEiac4434]

Likely R. Also, you keep saying he "isn't popular" but you do not have any polling to support that.

Because he isn't popular, and polling in Maine is rare.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R for now. Tilt R if Polinquin keeps this crap up for much longer. He is like the GOP Ralph Northam now. Starting off with a clear advantage, but not taking full advantage of his advantage, and thus might lose his advantage, and maybe even be a victim of an upset on election day in 2018.

[MAINEiac4434]

Surprised MAINEIAC (great name by the way) hasn't been on this guy's bandwagon yet:

https://bangordailynews.com/2017/07/24/politics/this-marine-veteran-from-lewiston-may-challenge-poliquin/

You couldn't ask for a better profile if you tried. From the core part of the district where most the population is aside from Penobscot County, and a lifelong Mainer and Marine with some elected experience. The kind of person who could make this a tossup.

Honestly, I hadn't heard of him. I live in the first district and I'm focusing on the Governor race right now. But he seems perfect. He represents Lewiston, which has a lot in common with Rust Belt towns...very Democratic in the 60s (often, Androscoggin County was the only county to go Democratic when the rest of the state went for Republicans) through the 90s, but has swung hard right since then.

Honestly, Rich and Fulford have a chance, but if Golden gets in he's probably the strongest challenger to Poliquin. It'd become pure tossup.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Surprised MAINEIAC (great name by the way) hasn't been on this guy's bandwagon yet:

https://bangordailynews.com/2017/07/24/politics/this-marine-veteran-from-lewiston-may-challenge-poliquin/

You couldn't ask for a better profile if you tried. From the core part of the district where most the population is aside from Penobscot County, and a lifelong Mainer and Marine with some elected experience. The kind of person who could make this a tossup.

Honestly, I hadn't heard of him. I live in the first district and I'm focusing on the Governor race right now. But he seems perfect. He represents Lewiston, which has a lot in common with Rust Belt towns...very Democratic in the 60s (often, Androscoggin County was the only county to go Democratic when the rest of the state went for Republicans) through the 90s, but has swung hard right since then.

Honestly, Rich and Fulford have a chance, but if Golden gets in he's probably the strongest challenger to Poliquin. It'd become pure tossup.

Doesnt Lewiston have a high Somalian refugee population for some reason? And If i remember correctly, Androscoggin was the closest Trump county in the state last year. (I think Clinton won Waldo by like 20 votes or something). Id give Poliquin the advantage to start off though. District is trending republican and he's got the French name in a very French area

[MAINEiac4434]

Surprised MAINEIAC (great name by the way) hasn't been on this guy's bandwagon yet:

https://bangordailynews.com/2017/07/24/politics/this-marine-veteran-from-lewiston-may-challenge-poliquin/

You couldn't ask for a better profile if you tried. From the core part of the district where most the population is aside from Penobscot County, and a lifelong Mainer and Marine with some elected experience. The kind of person who could make this a tossup.

Honestly, I hadn't heard of him. I live in the first district and I'm focusing on the Governor race right now. But he seems perfect. He represents Lewiston, which has a lot in common with Rust Belt towns...very Democratic in the 60s (often, Androscoggin County was the only county to go Democratic when the rest of the state went for Republicans) through the 90s, but has swung hard right since then.

Honestly, Rich and Fulford have a chance, but if Golden gets in he's probably the strongest challenger to Poliquin. It'd become pure tossup.

Doesnt Lewiston have a high Somalian refugee population for some reason? And If i remember correctly, Androscoggin was the closest Trump county in the state last year. (I think Clinton won Waldo by like 20 votes or something). Id give Poliquin the advantage to start off though. District is trending republican and he's got the French name in a very French area

Yes. Somali refugees were drawn to Maine because of its low crime rate, and Lewiston in particular because of cheap housing (not the case anymore, but the first wave came over 15 years ago). Franklin and Kennebec Counties were closer Trump wins, 48-42 and 47-44.

Poliquin definitely has the advantage. He's an incumbent, the district is trending red, but he's by no means a shoe-in, especially if LePage decides not to challenge King (a lot of people in the second district are LePage fans, but not necessarily Poliquin fans, and won't come out to vote for just Poliquin.)