Trump/Clinton
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Trump/Clinton
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Author Topic: Trump/Clinton  (Read 368 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
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« on: July 12, 2017, 04:52:25 PM »

Long story short:


The year of 1992 would eventually be remembered as the year of upsets. First, incumbent President George H. W. Bush, who not so long ago enjoyed astronomical approvals due to his handling of the Gulf War, found himself losing ground due to poor economic performance and the rebelion of GOP's far-right wing, symbolized by former Nixon speechwriter and pundit Pat Buchanan giving Poppy a serious challenge in New Hampshire and several other early states. The second wild card turned out to be Texas businessman H. Ross Perot, who mounted the strongest independent bid for the Presidency since George Wallace in 1968, although his appeal wasn't contained to one particular region. Although, due to emergence of somebody else, his strength would diminish and he'd end up in mid-single digits, he certainly helped to aggravate the situation.

But the biggest shocker was New York billionaire Donald Trump capturing, against all expectations, the Democratic nomination, besting frontrunners such as Bob Kerrey, Al Gore and Tom Harkin. Seemingly an unlikely candidate to appeal to the disaffected, Trump embraced on an energetic, populist campaign, breaking from a Third Way economic philosophy, while retaining more "moderate" views on issues such as crime. At the Democratic National Convention in his home city of New York, Trump choose a surprising vice presidential pick.

Long story short again. Back in 1986 Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton decided against seeking reelection, entering the Senate race instead, left open by a retirement of Dale Bumpers, his goal being, no doubt, raising his national profile (Bumpers himself left for a longshot presidential bid in 1988). However a tragedy happened days after Clinton won the nomination, as white supremacist named Richard Snell fatally shot the Governor during a rally in rural Arkansas. Snell had been at-large for two years, being a prime suspect in racially-motivated a spree killing.

The Arkansas Democratic Party decided to replace deceased nominee with his wife, First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton. Usually it would be an odd match for Arkansas, with Clinton's reputation as a "radical feminist", but she easily prevailed due to sympathy votes. Taking office in January 1987 she quickly made her mark at the Capitol. Having been considered a shoo-in for reelection in 1992, she dropped out after being offered the second spot by Trump.

Trump/Clinton ticket went on to defeat Bush/Quayle, with Perot lingering as a spoiler. Curiously, Ross actually got one electoral vote from a Maine faithless elector. It's been estimated later Perot's sticking in the race denied Trump/Clinton a majority.



Businessman Donald J. Trump of New York/Senator Hillary R. Clinton of Arkansas (Democratic): 370 electoral votes, 48% of the PV
President George H. W. Bush of Texas/Vice President J. Danforth Quayle of Indiana (Republican): 167 electoral votes, 46%
Businessman H. Ross Perot of Texas/Retired Vice Admiral James B. Stockdale of California (Independent): 1 electoral vote, 5% of the PV
Others: 1% of the PV
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