WI-GOV 2018: Could Scott Walker lose reelection in 2018?

[Suburbia]

Could Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a once Republican favorite to be the next president of the United States, lose reelection in 2018 in a Trump/Pence midterm election? How does he lose reelection? Is it due to his poor 2016 presidential campaign in which he dropped out, or would it be to racial divisions in the state?

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/26/wisconsin-democrats-have-chance-gov-scott-walker-but-no-candidate/99587850/

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/scott-walker-to-tell-wisconsin-republicans-he-s-ready-for/article_f3dc22e0-5752-5aa4-84a3-7bb94efeb919.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYLYgmPKJbM

[TheSaint250]

Could he lose? Yes. Will he? I doubt it.

[_]

90% chance he wins
50% chance he wins and he pulls whoever runs against Baldwin over the line with him.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

Could he yes...
Will he no...

[Holmes]

I think Democrats might end up with some B-tier candidate and they will look really stupid when Walker comes really close to losing but barely squeaks by.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

[Dr. Arch]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

Vinehout is the best choice, frankly, and there have been signs for her popping up already for months now.

[TheSaint250]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

Vinehout is the best choice, frankly, and there have been signs for her popping up already for months now.

How is she a good candidate (seriously wondering)?

[Kamala]

Vinehout could've beaten Walker in 2014, I think.

[Mr. Smith]

I think Walker and Baldwin will both face a much tougher challenge than most people expect, but the WOW counties should save Walker in the end.

Now watch me be totally wrong and Walker winning in a landslide.

And if Walker gets routed by Vinehout and Baldwin wins bigly instead?

No, I don't think either will happen. Baldwin will pull a squeaker, and I expect Walker will take it by 5 or so.

[Skye]

I think Walker and Baldwin will both face a much tougher challenge than most people expect, but the WOW counties should save Walker in the end.

Now watch me be totally wrong and Walker winning in a landslide.

His 6-point margin in 2014 was pretty much a landslide for a WI Republican. Also considering how close the polling was.

[Dr. Arch]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

Vinehout is the best choice, frankly, and there have been signs for her popping up already for months now.

How is she a good candidate (seriously wondering)?

She's a pragmatic Democrat from a non-Madison/MKE area who shares a background with most voters from critical areas (read: Western WI).

[Gass3268]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

Vinehout is the best choice, frankly, and there have been signs for her popping up already for months now.

How is she a good candidate (seriously wondering)?

She's a pragmatic Democrat from a non-Madison/MKE area who shares a background with most voters from critical areas (read: Western WI).

Also excites the left in the state more than any candidate this century.

[windjammer]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

Vinehout is the best choice, frankly, and there have been signs for her popping up already for months now.

How is she a good candidate (seriously wondering)?

She's a pragmatic Democrat from a non-Madison/MKE area who shares a background with most voters from critical areas (read: Western WI).

Also excites the left in the state more than any candidate this century.

She's going to run?

[Gass3268]

Could he? Of course.

Chances as of now? Leaning R. The WI Dem bench has been nearly decimated. That being said, Walker isn't exactly popular, and Wisconsinites are probably tired of him by now. The only three-term governor Wisconsin has ever had was Tommy Thomson, who wasn't nearly as conservative as Walker is. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout seems like a pretty good candidate for Wisconsin. She's from the Eau Claire area around the Minnesota border that Trump won, and has a family farm.

Vinehout is the best choice, frankly, and there have been signs for her popping up already for months now.

How is she a good candidate (seriously wondering)?

She's a pragmatic Democrat from a non-Madison/MKE area who shares a background with most voters from critical areas (read: Western WI).

Also excites the left in the state more than any candidate this century.

She's going to run?

If I had to guess, I'd say yes and she'd probably be the favorite to win the nomination.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Depends a lot on the candidate he still is a very polarized Governor in a very polarized state. Someone like Tony Evers probably makes it a tossup with a margin no more then 3 points either way; whereas a lower profile state legislator probably looses by 5-7 points. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

WI will become a WA/OR for the Republicans in the 2020s.

[mvd10]

Honestly, he should lose. He isn't really charismatic, he isn't terribly popular and 2018 should be a Democratic wave. But Scott Walker is an immortal and invincible vampire, so political logic (luckily) doesn't apply to him.

[Dr. Arch]

WI will become a WA/OR for the Republicans in the 2020s.

Hah, no, doubt it.

[Dr. Arch]

To WI posters: How serious is Paul Soglin about entering the race? And, perhaps more importantly, how would he fare in a primary versus someone like Vinehout?

I don't know how serious he is, and I've done nothing but vote against Soglin every time. He sucks. Easy Vinehout victory imo.

[I’m not Stu]

He will likely win, but he could lose.

[Xing]

Of course he could lose. It's not like he won by double digits or is extremely popular. A lot depends on whether or not Democrats can get their act together, which could happen, but isn't too likely.

[MasterJedi]

Should be close, he's not popular now, base is mad at him for proposing more funding for schools, he's basically killed any budget deal, bankrupted the state and is wanting to bond the wazoo for more road funding. He'll probably win, but it could be close.

[Young Conservative]

Should be close, he's not popular now, base is mad at him for proposing more funding for schools, he's basically killed any budget deal, bankrupted the state and is wanting to bond the wazoo for more road funding. He'll probably win, but it could be close.

Wisconsin ranks 29th in fiscal according to the Mercatus Institute. They are not in dire straights like you wrote.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-s-budget-picture-gets-million-brighter/article_b6d7eccd-d15d-5aa3-bfad-7c7f6c0476a2.html

Also, this.

[MasterJedi]

Should be close, he's not popular now, base is mad at him for proposing more funding for schools, he's basically killed any budget deal, bankrupted the state and is wanting to bond the wazoo for more road funding. He'll probably win, but it could be close.

Wisconsin ranks 29th in fiscal according to the Mercatus Institute. They are not in dire straights like you wrote.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-s-budget-picture-gets-million-brighter/article_b6d7eccd-d15d-5aa3-bfad-7c7f6c0476a2.html

Also, this.

Well there's really no money (Walker still claiming a surplus though), we can't pay for the roads for sure. Republicans are wanting to still keep cutting everything else since it can't be funded. They found more than what they thought, but still not enough.