Let's say Trump gets primaried...
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  Let's say Trump gets primaried...
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Poll
Question: Which of these candidates would win the 2020 Republican Primary?
#1
President Donald Trump
 
#2
Vice President Mike Pence
 
#3
Ohio Governor John Kasich
 
#4
Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Let's say Trump gets primaried...  (Read 1046 times)
Grumpier Than Thou
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« on: July 14, 2017, 09:48:03 AM »

Going with the three most likely challengers (according to Wikipedia, but whatever) which of these fellows reigns supreme?

I think a case could be made for Pence, but it would be a lot more difficult for a challenger to pull off a successful primary against Trump now that the party has pretty much united behind him.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2017, 10:37:30 AM »

The GOP base will never abandon their God-Emperor.
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Flameoguy
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2017, 11:01:30 AM »

The GOP base will never abandon their God-Emperor.
The pro-Trump hysteria among Republicans is too real.
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Santander
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2017, 11:02:47 AM »

The GOP base will never abandon their God-Emperor.
Deplorable and proud. Smiley
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2017, 11:14:32 AM »

Trump is obviously heavily favored to win re-nomination against any plausible challenger.  Nonetheless, there's a reasonably high chance that he'll face a challenger who can get something like Buchanan '92 numbers against him, which is not something that ever seemed likely for either Bush in '04 or Obama in '12.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2017, 11:42:01 AM »

The GOP base will never abandon their God-Emperor.
Deplorable and proud. Smiley

Proudly supporting a traitor? Alright then.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2017, 12:19:29 PM »

I also remain curious as to how many Republican elites will endorse Trump in the primaries next time.  (Again, assuming that he gets a primary challenger who is at least prominent enough to be included in polls.)  Hardly any Congressional Republicans endorsed Trump in the primaries last time.  Next time I would imagine quite a few of them will, though my guess is that there would be quite a few who would remain officially neutral until the nomination is decided.

Here's a question:

What's the over/under on the number of sitting Republican members of Congress who will not only endorse Trump, but do at least one campaign appearance with him during the primary campaign, *before* he has mathematically clinched the nomination?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2017, 05:33:19 PM »

If it gets so bad Pence is primarying him, he retires or has a 20% approval rating.
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dw93
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2017, 05:57:44 PM »

If Trump runs again, he's re nominated, whether there's a primary challenge or not. At no point in the last century has a sitting President been deprived the nomination even with the most serious of primary challenges (see Taft in 1912, Truman in 1948, Ford in 1976, even Carter in 1980). If Trump doesn't run again however, and Pence runs to succeed him, I could see Pence being deprived of the nomination.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2017, 03:46:41 PM »

President Trump will be re-nominated if he runs.  He seems to already be laying the groundwork for a 2020 re-election bid, so I think the odds of him running again are pretty good.  If there is one thing everyone should have learned from the entirety of 2016 is never underestimate President Trump.  Everyone thought his campaign was DOA in the primaries, and guess what?  He cruised to the nomination.  Everyone thought Hillary would crush him in the only poll that matters on Election Day (Electoral College?  Everyone was embarrassingly wrong.  As soon as he can get Russia behind him and can focus on running the country, he can start gaining some traction.  Also, as long as the Democrats stay in complete obstruction mode and not coalesce around a unifying message for the voters, this does nothing but help his re-election chances.  Democrats needs to face the music, as long as there is a Republican House, he will not be impeached and as long there is a Republican Senate, he will not be removed from office.  They need to get used to the idea that he will be in the White House for the duration of his term and start rallying around a message.

Sorry for the long post, just got long-winded a bit!
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Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2017, 04:09:59 PM »

Republicans rally around their person, always. Think about it: they were able to rally around someone as objectively horrible as Trump. Could Dems say the same about HRC? Sad! indeed.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2017, 04:19:29 PM »

If Sasse is running, something big has happened and he's the best-equipped to capitalize on it.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2017, 04:28:48 PM »

His approval ratings would have to be at Bush 43 in the summer of 2008 levels which is not happening without economic collapse. His supporters will turn a blind eye to his other stuff. And I can't imagine a war taking place soon enough that would cause war fatigue among the electorate.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2017, 05:59:45 PM »

Pence wouldn't challenge Trump.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2017, 07:13:43 PM »


Excellent point.  I get the tweets from not only the President, but the Vice President, sent to my Twitter Account and text messaging every time they type 140 characters and the Vice President seems to rave about how pleased and proud he is to serve under this President.  He seems to be happy in his job and happy with his boss, so I don't see him challenging him in the next election.  The only time Pence would run for the GOP nomination would be for the 2024 cycle if and only if his boss won re-election.  If his boss loses re-election, I can see the Vice President retiring from politics.
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