early look at gerrymanders in 2020

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually drawing another Democratic district in Oregon is pretty easy. Oregon voted for Hillary by almost 11 points. OR-2 is a huge R vote sink. OR-4 is a very margin seat that Hillary won by like 0.1% (I think it might be the closest seat in the country) but has a strong incumbent and the Democrats could just boost it a bit by adding places like Ashland and Bend from OR-2 and shedding the Republican territory, and you have a seat that would be very hard to win for the Republicans even if DeFazio retires but would be about D+4 or so. That means in the remainder of Oregon Hillary would've won it by about 16-17 points, and thus could easily be chopped up so all the districts are at least in the teens margin of victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thank you. I'm kinda new to this and i really dont understand the state by state laws of how the VRA has to be applied exactly

The Trumpification of the courts is going to have a big impact. Wouldn't be surprising to see Neil Gorsuch toss this silly Voting Rights Act into history's dustbin.

Should be simple. Equal protection under the law means everyone should be treated the same. No special treatment for certain groups. we should have 435 American districts, not a set number of white, black, asian, hispanic seats. Just American

That's not even remotely close to how the VRA works, This ignorance is astounding.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's the 5-1 Oregon map I drew on AAD. It's not perfect of course since it uses the last Census numbers but it's a good rough outline:




Trump probably didn't break 40% in any of the districts in the Portland area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Linn and Benton county district voted 57-41 Obama/McCain. That's not a Lean R seat. As said I doubt Trump even broke 40%. The yellow district was 61-37 Obama/McCain and Trump cratered in parts of it and probably did even worse. Not a toss up.