early look at gerrymanders in 2020

[Virginiá]

The only state were we can really predict the 2020 maps in Virginia - and that is after the November elections. Then, we will see who controls the Governor and the General Assembly, and what the trendline in the HoD is and can it flip/remain R in time for 2020.

Not necessarily. This time it is a little bit tricky for Democrats in Virginia. There are a few options here:

1. Democrats have to win Gov race both this year and in 2021, ensuring veto power over maps no matter when Republicans do it. Republicans will surely punt the redraw to 2022 if Gillespie loses this year.

or

2. Democrats win a state Senate majority in 2019 and prevent any defections or retirement enticements from the GOP. This allows a veto of a Congressional gerrymander and legislative maps, although a bipartisan gerrymander is a fair bet for the legislative maps.

3. The rarest option - Democrats somehow win a trifecta by 2021 by holding the gov this year and handing heavy losses to the HoD Republicans, winning the state Senate in 2019 and building on HoD gains, and then in 2021 finally win a bare majority while holding the Govs office. Again, this still seems unlikely, even if they get a new HoD map due to the racial gerrymandering lawsuit currently pending.

Either way, the VA Democrats' redistricting situation will not be solved by the 2017 elections alone.

[Virginiá]

Could the VA GOP really punt the redraw past 2021?   I thought there were laws requiring maps be submitted before the end of 2021.

If nothing else the chances of the VA GOP having a trifecta again for 2020 is almost nil,  with both this year's gov race and the 2019 Senate races...with Trump in the White House to top it off.

They delayed in the last round and passed the Congressional map in 2012. In 2013, when Republicans had a 20-20 majority with Bolling, they even tried to go back on the Senate map Democrats drew in 2011, but that attempt was eventually killed. The state constitution pretty clearly says maps are to be redrawn in odd years following the census (so 2011, 2021, etc), and there was even a lawsuit, but the state supreme court refused to hear it and a lower court judge said the maps had to be finished in 2011 but "did not forbid" them from being finished the next year, either. I don't really get why a deadline would be instituted if the deadline didn't actually matter. Since that was a lower court, there could be another lawsuit if that happens, although I dunno if anything different occur.

[Virginiá]

That is incredibly terrible reasoning. Rural districts are just as populated as urban districts. Since Ohio went for Trump by eight points, it would be easy for the GOP to eliminate Tim Ryan's district if the GOP gerrymander stays. But that gerrymander probably won't stay due to the likely victory of an independent redistricting commission extension initiative in 2018.

Last I read about reform efforts in Ohio was that they intended to emulate the legislative commission reform passed in 2015, which was pretty weak but still ok when you consider it was a legislative referral to the ballot. Basically they could implement a 4 year gerrymander if they didn't get votes from the minority party, and then 4 years later they do it again, except this time they can even update the gerrymander to account for any trends that have developed since the last map was passed. In that sense, it is even worse. The idea was that at least the minority has a chance in future elections to win more influence on the commission (eg, win the Auditor's race, the Gov race, a legislative chamber, etc). They can also sue if the maps are hyper-partisan but that requires Republican judges to actually rule against their party, which is far from a given if you go by other states.

Point is, if that is indeed the kind of reform that gets implemented, Democrats shouldn't expect it to save them. They would be better off doing away with the 4 year provision and making it truly independent.

[Virginiá]

I believe the Pennyslvania Democrats control the State Supreme Court, which means that Democrats will probably have the upper hand even with split redistricting.

Legislative only, but if Wolf hangs on he can also block Congressional gerrymanders. Of course, this assumes PA Republicans do not attempt to change the system by putting a constitutional amendment on the ballot before 2021. Last I recall, there were rumblings of reform now that conservatives are on the other side of redistricting.