early look at gerrymanders in 2020

[I’m not Stu]

FL: Likely gains at least two districts. Likely gains at least one Democratic district due to urbanization.
TX: Gains two or three districts. At least one likely Democratic because of urbanization.
OH: likely loses a GOP leaning district because rural districts are less populated.
WV: Likely loses a district. Safe R for both districts.
AZ: Likely gains one district.
RI: Likely Loses a district. Safe D at-large district.
NH: Very little change.
MI: Likely loses a district.
NE: Very little change or loses a district. Likely two R districts if NE loses a district.
MT: No change or gains a district.
NV: Very little change.
AL: Likely loses a GOP district.
CO: Likely gains a district.
PA: Likely loses a district.
IL: Likely loses a district.
NC: Likely gains one D district.

[I’m not Stu]

OH: likely loses a GOP leaning district because rural districts are less populated.

That is incredibly terrible reasoning. Rural districts are just as populated as urban districts. Since Ohio went for Trump by eight points, it would be easy for the GOP to eliminate Tim Ryan's district if the GOP gerrymander stays. But that gerrymander probably won't stay due to the likely victory of an independent redistricting commission extension initiative in 2018.

RealClear Politics says it would be difficult to eliminate GOP seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan; maybe because rural populations are declining more quickly. Tim Ryan's seat includes urban areas like Akron and Youngstown.

[I’m not Stu]

Which district in West Virginia likely gets eliminated: Mooney's, Jenkins', or McKinley's?

[I’m not Stu]

I believe the Pennyslvania Democrats control the State Supreme Court, which means that Democrats will probably have the upper hand even with split redistricting.

Democrats do, in fact, control the PA Supreme Court. 2 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

[I’m not Stu]

It is more difficult to eliminate a populated urban district than a rural district that is losing population. Some Obama-Trump voters live in urban districts that voted for Hillary Clinton and Tim Ryan. Who knows how they voted in House races?

[I’m not Stu]

Ohio might get a redistricting commission passed in 2018.