Oryxslayer
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Posts: 10,796
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« on: July 16, 2017, 07:35:48 PM » |
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I have thought about this hypothetical for quite some time - the end result is that we don't know what the maps will even look like. In 2008, the Democrats controlled quite a number of state houses - almost as much as the Republicans do right now. It was all swept away in the 2010 wave. The midterms will give us a better picture in regards to the partisan makeup of chambers and gubernatorial offices.
But then we got issues pushed by certain members. You mention Kansas, however the split between the suburban and rural GOP there created the current lines despite the partisan makeup being a R trifecta in 2010. Perhaps if there is a D in KS-03 in 2020, the district will be spit.
The only state were we can really predict the 2020 maps in Virginia - and that is after the November elections. Then, we will see who controls the Governor and the General Assembly, and what the trendline in the HoD is and can it flip/remain R in time for 2020.
So, no - wait until November 7th 2018 to begin drawing maps. For seat gains/losses, check the locked population estimates thread at the top of this topic forum.
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