early look at gerrymanders in 2020 (user search)
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  early look at gerrymanders in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: early look at gerrymanders in 2020  (Read 8190 times)
nclib
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« on: July 16, 2017, 06:53:50 PM »

This appears to be the partisan control map as of 2017. Red = Dem control, Blue = Repub control, Green = Mixed control, Gray = non-partisan or at-large. Probably there will be some shift to the Dems especially among Governors races.



Potential gerrymanders

Repub:

UT - keep same map, splitting Salt Lake
NE - add rural areas to NE-2?
KS - add rural areas to KS-3?
MO - could divide K.C. but that could easily backfire
WI - could weaken WI-3
MI - prob. keep same map
IN - could weaken IN-1
OH - keep same map, but if lose a seat, would come from Repubs
OK - could shore map OK-5, but not likely to be necessary
TX - prob. new seats would be split or Democratic plus perhaps a white Austin seat
AR - keep same map
MS - keep same map
AL - keep same map
GA - may even have to concede Dem or swing Atlanta suburbs seat
SC - keep same map, or maybe shore up SC-1 and/or SC-7
NC - keep same map, but if gain new seat, it would be Democratic
FL - prob. keep same map, I'm not too familiar with Fla. politics
TN - could divide Nashville though Cooper has represented rural Tennessee before
KY - could divide Louisville
WV - keep same map
NH - prob. would be similar map regardless of whose in control

Dem:

OR - keep same map, but if gain CD would at best be a swing CD
MD - keep same map
NY - could threaten Syracuse seat; Long Island Repubs would be hard to dislodge
MA - keep same map
RI - prob. will end up at-large but if not, would likely keep same map

What are your thoughts?

Also, does anyone have a guess at which states are likely to gain/lose seats?
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nclib
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Posts: 10,304
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2017, 03:17:53 PM »

I'm not familiar with the PA Supreme Court, but it appears that if Wolf is re-elected (likely), PA will have a fair map. PA-5 and PA-9 will go back to Repub Central PA, and PA-6, PA-7, and others will become more Democratic.
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nclib
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Posts: 10,304
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2017, 08:48:01 PM »

Since KY and NE Repub gerrymanders will be limited by not being able to split more counties than necessary, I played around with DRA which of course has 2008 and 2010 numbers, but will probably not be that inaccurate.

Kentucky: Jefferson County only has 17K more people than KY-3. Also, the most Democratic areas are not near the border meaning some Repub precincts have to be excised, and this only moves KY-3 0.1% to the right.

Nebraska: adding Douglas County to whole rural counties only puts McCain at most 50.2%.
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