If Iraq hadn't invaded Kuwait in 1990

[Mr. Morden]

Obviously, if Iraq doesn't invade Kuwait, there's a big ripple effect in the timeline for both the Middle East and American foreign policy into the 2000s and beyond.

But what about domestic American politics in the 1990s?  The bigger names in the Democratic Party like Bradley, Cuomo, Gephardt, and Gore all sat out the 1992 presidential election, in no small part because Bush's popularity made him look like a solid bet for reelection.  But if there's no Gulf War, and thus no surge in popularity for Bush as a consequence of victory in the Gulf War, then do all of them sit out the '92 election?  If Iraq doesn't invade Kuwait, then is Bill Clinton still the 1992 Democratic nominee?

[dw93]

"Vietnam Syndrome" as it was called lingers on a little longer, thus there might be more reluctance to intervene in other places where we intervened in the 90s (Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, etc...). The Democrats probably do better in the 1990 midterms with no run up to the war, as the midterms will be solely focused on the economy and Bush breaking the Tax Pledge. As for 1992, Cuomo could've ran in '88, but didn't, so my guess is the Democratic Primary is a contest of all those who ran in real life (Clinton, Kerrey, Brown, Tsongas, etc...) plus Gephardt, Sam Nunn, Bill Bradly, and possibly Gore (although he still might sit it out, as IRC, his son's accident was a factor in him not running). Who ends up being the nominee is anyone's guess, but I think Bush without the success of Dessert Storm is even more vulnerable in 1992 (although not Carter in 1980 level vulnerable), so the Democrats still win the White House and most likely keep the Presidency for the rest of the decade, just like they did in our timeline.

[Mr. Morden]

As for 1992, Cuomo could've ran in '88, but didn't, so my guess is the Democratic Primary is a contest of all those who ran in real life (Clinton, Kerrey, Brown, Tsongas, etc...) plus Gephardt, Sam Nunn, Bill Bradly, and possibly Gore (although he still might sit it out, as IRC, his son's accident was a factor in him not running).

I think Clinton benefited enormously from having a Southern base all to himself during those 1992 primaries, in a year when the primary calendar made the South especially important.  He connected with Southern whites, and, because there was no Jesse Jackson running that year, he cleaned up among Southern blacks as well.  If another Southern candidate (like Gore) had run that year, it might have turned out very differently.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

As for 1992, Cuomo could've ran in '88, but didn't, so my guess is the Democratic Primary is a contest of all those who ran in real life (Clinton, Kerrey, Brown, Tsongas, etc...) plus Gephardt, Sam Nunn, Bill Bradly, and possibly Gore (although he still might sit it out, as IRC, his son's accident was a factor in him not running).

I think Clinton benefited enormously from having a Southern base all to himself during those 1992 primaries, in a year when the primary calendar made the South especially important.  He connected with Southern whites, and, because there was no Jesse Jackson running that year, he cleaned up among Southern blacks as well.  If another Southern candidate (like Gore) had run that year, it might have turned out very differently.

Interestingly, back in 1988 Gore hoped to be a Southern candidate himself, but he was severely weakened by Jackson.

[Kingpoleon]

I think Tsongas wins the primaries, and his cancer might be butterflied.

[dw93]

I think Tsongas wins the primaries, and his cancer might be butterflied.

I don't think the Former Senator from Massachusetts would get the nomination four years after the debacle that was Dukakis.

[Kingpoleon]

I think Tsongas wins the primaries, and his cancer might be butterflied.

I don't think the Former Senator from Massachusetts would get the nomination four years after the debacle that was Dukakis.

Right....