Population Growth in CSAs and Metropolitan Areas, 1900-2016

[jimrtex]

Thanks for the explanation.  I could have sworn there used to be a separate Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown metro area in recent years. I was actually surprised to see Dutchess and Orange as part of the New York Metro Area again.

The 2013 review, based on the 2010 Census, along with the commuting statistics from the 2008-2012 ACS eliminated the PNM MSA, which had been recognized under the 2000 standards. The 2010 and 2000 standards are essentially the same, so adding PNM to NYC was using the the same standards with updated data. Almost all areas have a significant workforce to serve local residents (grocery stores, barbers, doctors, teachers, policemen) that don't require commuting, so it is conceivable that PNM could escape the NYC MSA, because the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh Urbanized Area and (separate) Middletown Urbanized areas are protected.

The PNM MSA was part of the NYC CSA (the commuting link required for inclusion in a CSA is weaker than for inclusion in a CBSA). The 2013 update added the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, East Stroudsburg, and Kingston CBSA to the CSA. Trenton and the three Connecticut CBSA were already in the CSA.

The Census Bureau delineates Metropolitan Divisions within larger CBSA (single UA or 2.5M+). Metropolitan Divisions are based on Main Counties, which have a large share of resident workers working in the county, and a high ratio of workers (i.e. jobs) to resident workers (i.e. employees).

Other counties in the MSA are then attached to the Main County based on predominant commuting.

Before the 2013 update, there was an Edison, NJ Metropolitan Division (Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Somerset, all in NJ). It was dissolved, with Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean switched to the NYC division, and Somerset to the Newark MD.

Orange was added to the NYC MD, but a new Metropolitan Division of Dutchess-Putnam was added. Dutchess could not have been a Main County before because it was not in the NYC MSA, but because Orange dragged it into the county, it was now eligible, and considered independently from Orange.

85% of workers resident in Dutchess, work in Dutches (i.e. it is not a commuter suburb).

[cinyc]

The Minneapolis-St. Paul CSA grew at about a 100,00 persons per decade clip pre-WWII. Post-war, that usually ramped up to 300K-400K, except in the 1970s, when growth slowed to around 200K:




The core Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington Metro has never lost population in any decade since 1900. Nor has St. Cloud. The 3 outlying micropoltian areas have lost population at times:



The 1900-2016 decadal county population change map shows core Hennepin (Minneapolis) and Ramsey (St. Paul) Counties losing population in the 1970s. Ramsey also lost pop in the 2000s:



The 1980-2016 yearly county percentage population change map map shows suburban/exurban counties growing at a faster percentage pace than core Hennepin & Ramsey most years, except roughly 2010-13:



The 2000-16 town map shows the twin cities of Minneapolis & St. Paul losing population from roughly 2001-2006. Generally, only the suburban/exurban county towns bordering the core 2 counties seem to have continued to grow during the great recession. Some exurbs seem to have lost population during that time:



The 1980-2016 static county percentage change map shows the collar counties growing fastest during that period:



The 2000-16 static county map shows somewhat of a continuation of this pattern in some counties, particularly Scott:



The 2010-16 static town map shows some Hennepin County and border towns growing faster than the rest:

[cinyc]

The Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA hasn't grown much since the 1960s. It had one slight up decade in the 1990s, but has declined since:



Much of this loss is due to the decline of the core Cleveland-Elyria metro. The Akron & Canton-Massilion metros were also down some of those decades:



Cleveland's Cuyahoga County has declined every decade since the 1960s. It usually had the fastest decline of any CSA county, too:



The 1980-2016 yearly county estimate percentage population change map shows Cuyahoga County declining every year except a few in the early 1990s and, due to a better 2000 census result than 1999 estimated, 1999-2000:


The 2000-16 town maps show the cities of Cleveland, Akron & Canton losing population every year. Some suburbs outside Cuyahoga still grow, though, especially in Medina County:



The 1980-2016 static county percentage population growth map shows that Medina County was the fastest-growing over that period.  Other Cuyahoga-bordering suburban counties also grew:



The 2000-16 county map shows that the Medina County trend has continued recently:



The 2010-16 static town map shows that very few Cuyahoga County suburbs have grown this decade. The Medina County gains are pretty much county-wide.  Other suburban counties tended to have growth concentrated right next to the Cuyahoga County border.

[jimrtex]

The Philadelphia-Reading-Camden CSA has grown every decade since 1900 - though it only barely grew in the 1970s:

Its component metros weren't as consistent.  The core Philadelphia-Camden-Wimington MSA lost population in the 1970s.  The Ocean City MSA, a.k.a. Cape May, like Cape Cod has been stagnant recently:

An oddity is that there is no Wilmington Urbanized Area, so that the Philadelphia Urbanized Area has grown into New Castle, DE; and even Cecil, MD (including Elkton). This makes those two counties "central counties" of the Philadelphia MSA.

On the other hand there is a Pottstown Urbanized Area (Pottstown is in far western Montgomery). This blocks expansion of the Philadelphia UA, though it has snuck around Trenton and entered Hunterdon (no doubt surprising the Hessians).

[cinyc]

The Denver-Aurora CSA has grown every decade since 1900. However, the growth has been a bit erratic, with fast (gold rush?) growth in the 1900s, followed by slower growth until after WWII, and a ramp up afterwards, except in the 1980s:



All of the Denver CSA's constituent metros have always grown, except Greeley during the 1930s:



At the county level, Denver proper lost population during the 1970s and 1980s. Other counties, largely on the periphery, have lost population in other decades. Broomfield was not a separate county until 2001:



The 1980-2016 county estimate percentage population change map gif confirms that the Denver losses in the 1980s spilled over to the early 1990s. Both Denver and Jefferson County lost a little population in the early 2000s, too:



And the 2000-16 town map confirms that the minor Jefferson County losses were not pinpointed to any one jurisdiction:



The static county maps show explosive growth in some counties, particularly south of Denver. Here is the 1980-2016 county map:



And the 2000-16 static map shows the fast growth in Douglas County has continued in more recent decades:



The 2010-16 static town map shows growth pretty much throughout the CSA:

[cinyc]

The New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA has inconsistently grown, except in the 1980s (oil?) and 2000s (Hurricane Katrina). The largest numerical growth was in the 1960s:



At the metro level, the outlying metro/micro areas still grew in the 2000s, perhaps due to outmigration from the core New Orleans Metro Area post-Katrina:



The decadal parish map shows not all New Orleans Metro parishes grew consistently. For example, Orleans Parish declined from the 60s-Katrina. It has rebounded since:



The 1980-2016 yearly parish percentage population growth map gif pinpoints this decline pattern in Orleans Parish was through about 1999. Orleans Parish grew a little in the 2000s before Katrina, and has grown since:



Unfortunately, the 2000-16 town map gif doesn't add much info. Like much of the south and west, the New Orleans CSA doesn't have many incorporated towns, and Census generally only provides yearly population estimates for incorporated areas:



I didn't make any static maps for the New Orleans CSA. There's too little interest in those maps or this thread to warrant it.

[cinyc]

I'm testing out a non-Atlas Color Scheme on the Pittsburgh CSA Maps. Yes, that might be sacreligious here, but the problem is that it's hard to differentiate dark blue from dark red in the Atlas scheme. Please let me know what you think of the new color scheme:

The Pittsburgh CSA gained population through the 1950s, and has steadily lost pop since:


At the metro/micro level, the Indiana, PA Micro also grew in the 60s and 70s, but all have lost pop since:



The 1900-2016 decadal county gif shows suburban Westmoreland, Butler and Washington Counties still growing some in post 1950s decades, with Butler the most steady grower:



The 1980-2016 yearly population estimate growth map shows Butler growing most years, and core Allegheny growing 2008-13:



The 2000-16 yearly town population estimate growth gif shows the Pittsburgh CSA's growth largely concentrated in West & North Hills. The city of Pittsburgh itself grew in the early 2010s:



Here's a similar town map, using the traditional Atlas Color Scheme. Which is more pleasant for the eyes?