List Dem Senators the GOP is making a real effort to knock off in 2018

[The Mikado]

So far I have:

IN
MO
OH?
MT???

It seems like Manchin and Heitkamp at walking, which seems crazy. Are Donnelly and McCatskill the only Dem Senators who need to be sweating?

[Donerail]

Scott is running against Nelson in FL

[Donerail]

Scott is running against Nelson in FL

Why does everyone think this is a given? He gave himself until next year to decide likely because he knows the environment will be rough, and it would give him some time to reach a definitive conclusion.

He gave himself until next year to announce, not to decide. He is fairly obviously running already.

[Kingpoleon]

Scott is running against Nelson in FL

Why does everyone think this is a given? He gave himself until next year to decide likely because he knows the environment will be rough, and it would give him some time to reach a definitive conclusion.

He gave himself until next year to announce, not to decide. He is fairly obviously running already.

Maybe his campaign appearances and ads and gathering of forces is just to show everyone in Florida a last goodbye.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

[_]

MT
MO
IN
WI
OH
WV
FL
Maybe ND if they don't run Cramer.

[Holmes]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

[Kingpoleon]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

If the winner somehow is Brooks, Ballard, or Daniels, then I doubt Donnelly can win. Otherwise, I would rate it Lean D.

[BuckeyeNut]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

If the winner somehow is Brooks, Ballard, or Daniels, then I doubt Donnelly can win. Otherwise, I would rate it Lean D.

It's not going to be any of those guys. Brooks has passed, Daniels is retired from politics and enjoying his time at Purdue, and Ballard ... might also be retired. He was too scared to run for re-election in 2016, and was pretty anti-Trump during the election. He also hated the RFRA and likely has a less than good relationship with Pence, which might weigh on his future decisions.

[Kamala]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

Yep - and the primary period allows Donnelly to define himself rather than his opponents defining him. If he can be sort of a toned-down Sherrod Brown, I think he's got a good chance of reelection.

Regarding the primary, Rokita and Messer are both relatively similar ideologically, but Rokita is seen as more of a "gaffe machine" despite not having that many gaffes, and Messer more "presentable." Despite this, I think Donnelly should prefer Messer to be his opponent, since he'll be lambasted as a boring Establishment pick.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

If the winner somehow is Brooks, Ballard, or Daniels, then I doubt Donnelly can win. Otherwise, I would rate it Lean D.

It's not going to be any of those guys. Brooks has passed, Daniels is retired from politics and enjoying his time at Purdue, and Ballard ... might also be retired. He was too scared to run for re-election in 2016, and was pretty anti-Trump during the election. He also hated the RFRA and likely has a less than good relationship with Pence, which might weigh on his future decisions.

To add to this, Greg Ballard would never survive a statewide primary in Indiana.

[Coraxion]

*crickets chirping*

[Hoosier_Nick]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

If the winner somehow is Brooks, Ballard, or Daniels, then I doubt Donnelly can win. Otherwise, I would rate it Lean D.

It's not going to be any of those guys. Brooks has passed, Daniels is retired from politics and enjoying his time at Purdue, and Ballard ... might also be retired. He was too scared to run for re-election in 2016, and was pretty anti-Trump during the election. He also hated the RFRA and likely has a less than good relationship with Pence, which might weigh on his future decisions.

To add to this, Greg Ballard would never survive a statewide primary in Indiana.

I could see Ballard winning with the Indianapolis voters and Northern suburbs. Messer and Rokita represent more of the Trump wing of the Party, and Ballard is still very popular and could get a lot of those anti-Trump voters. I'm not sure if there would be a runoff if no one gets 50%, but it's realistic that Ballard could win with like 40% if the Trump vote is split.

[Pericles]

Heitkamp and Manchin could be vulnerable but are in a good position. I'm not sure about Donnelly but he should be vulnerable. McCaskill and Brown are getting lucky with the GOP field but if the elections for their seats were held now they'd lose and they are vulnerable. Michigan with Kid Rock may be worrying but Stabenow is strong and rationally she should easily defeat any GOP candidate. Brown and McCaskill are the top targets for the GOP I think.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I could see Ballard winning with the Indianapolis voters and Northern suburbs. Messer and Rokita represent more of the Trump wing of the Party, and Ballard is still very popular and could get a lot of those anti-Trump voters. I'm not sure if there would be a runoff if no one gets 50%, but it's realistic that Ballard could win with like 40% if the Trump vote is split.

You're right. I had meant that Ballard would never crack 50% but he could certainly win in a plurality.

I just don't think that Indianapolis and Hamilton County Republicans can dominate the state party any more the way they did in the Daniels years.

[Figueira]

Isn't Jenkins still running in WV? He seems like a decent recruit.

[Kingpoleon]

Donnelly doesn't really look that much in trouble either so far MO is the only matchup that is making dems sweat

Republicans will tear each other apart in the IN-Sen primary and the winner will emerge wounded. That will benefit Donnelly.

If the winner somehow is Brooks, Ballard, or Daniels, then I doubt Donnelly can win. Otherwise, I would rate it Lean D.

It's not going to be any of those guys. Brooks has passed, Daniels is retired from politics and enjoying his time at Purdue, and Ballard ... might also be retired. He was too scared to run for re-election in 2016, and was pretty anti-Trump during the election. He also hated the RFRA and likely has a less than good relationship with Pence, which might weigh on his future decisions.

I said and I quote, "somehow".