AZ-SEN Class 3: Senator McCain

[Tintrlvr]

I don't think most Arizona Republicans like McSally, they think that she is a RINO.

And you think they don't think McCain isn't??

Regardless of the comment on McSally, McCain probably would not have won a primary in the modern era without already being an entrenched incumbent.

[Cactus Jack]

It's prohibitively unlikely that he'll even be alive a year from now, let alone in 2022. He has one of the worst forms of cancer there is, and he's almost twice the age Beau Biden was when he died of the exact same disease. He's even older than Kennedy was when GBM took him, and he only lived about a year and a half after diagnosis despite likely being in better health than McCain.

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up. Of every member of the Arizona House delegation, she's by far the most similar to McCain.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up.

A special Election for her seat would be Lean to Likely D, so it would be a scenario that pleases all - republicans get a new senator who can probably hold down the seat for quite a while as McSally is a moderate, and Dems gain a house seat.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up.

A special Election for her seat would be Lean to Likely D, so it would be a scenario that pleases all - republicans get a new senator who can probably hold down the seat for quite a while as McSally is a moderate, and Dems gain a house seat.

Indeed. McSally is fairly young and inoffensive to Arizona voters and could easily continue comfortably holding McCain's seat, even as Arizona swings left. Any other Republican in the delegation - especially Franks and Schweikert, notorious kooky dukes that they are - would probably be even likelier to lose reelection than Flake.

[Kamala]

Ducey might just do the traditional thing of appointing McCain's widow to serve out until the special election, like Carnahan and Burdick.

That, I think, would be the most respectful and least political move he could make .

[Cactus Jack]

Ducey might just do the traditional thing of appointing McCain's widow to serve out until the special election, like Carnahan and Burdick.

That, I think, would be the most respectful and least political move he could make .

Likely true on that last point, but I highly doubt if Cindy McCain would be able to hold the seat for long. She's not tremendously young herself and wouldn't have her husband's resilience against far-right primary challenges.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It looks pretty unlikely that he will be still alive in 2022.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up.

A special Election for her seat would be Lean to Likely D, so it would be a scenario that pleases all - republicans get a new senator who can probably hold down the seat for quite a while as McSally is a moderate, and Dems gain a house seat.

Indeed. McSally is fairly young and inoffensive to Arizona voters and could easily continue comfortably holding McCain's seat, even as Arizona swings left. Any other Republican in the delegation - especially Franks and Schweikert, notorious kooky dukes that they are - would probably be even likelier to lose reelection than Flake.

She did shoot herself in the foot spectacularly during the AHCA debate.

As can be said of virtually every vulnerable Republican to come out in support of the thing. Schweikert and Franks would still be vastly worse as candidates; both of them have reputations for being patently insane.

This would still be a vulnerable seat, but McSally would be the Republicans' best shot at holding it in the long term.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up.

A special Election for her seat would be Lean to Likely D, so it would be a scenario that pleases all - republicans get a new senator who can probably hold down the seat for quite a while as McSally is a moderate, and Dems gain a house seat.

Indeed. McSally is fairly young and inoffensive to Arizona voters and could easily continue comfortably holding McCain's seat, even as Arizona swings left. Any other Republican in the delegation - especially Franks and Schweikert, notorious kooky dukes that they are - would probably be even likelier to lose reelection than Flake.

She did shoot herself in the foot spectacularly during the AHCA debate.

As can be said of virtually every vulnerable Republican to come out in support of the thing. Schweikert and Franks would still be vastly worse as candidates; both of them have reputations for being patently insane.

This would still be a vulnerable seat, but McSally would be the Republicans' best shot at holding it in the long term.

Of the Arizona delegation, sure she's the most electable Republican. But I have my doubts that she would easily hold it down in 2018 as you suggested. Her behavior during the debate (not just her vote) was what I was referring to.

Fair enough. I certainly won't suggest that she would be a shoo-in every time, but she has the greatest likelihood of being that sort of incumbent.

[Coraxion]

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up.

A special Election for her seat would be Lean to Likely D, so it would be a scenario that pleases all - republicans get a new senator who can probably hold down the seat for quite a while as McSally is a moderate, and Dems gain a house seat.

...Assuming she gets past the primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Best wishes to Senator McCain and his family, but...

Obviously not. I doubt that he'll make it to the end of this year, let alone the end of his term.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If McCain does indeed retire, Arizona will probably become one of, if not thee most active state of 2018. A whole slate of state offices and 2 Senate seats at the same time makes for massive investments.

Anyway, hopefully McCain can beat this. Brain cancer - or any cancer at all, is no way to go

The governor nominates a candidate to serve the remainder of the term. If/when Ducey nominates someone, there won't be a special election in 2018.

That's not what this says:

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate.aspx

Arizona is in the list of states where the appointee only serves until the next regularly scheduled statewide election. That would be the 2018 midterms.

What would be the case if the vacancy occurs after the primaries? Same deal?

Arizona primaries are held in August of the election year, so if it happened after the primaries, it would likely be too late  for a november election due to having to have a whole new primary campaign, and federal law regarding overseas military ballots. It would presumably push the special election to 2020, unless the parties were willing to forgo a "special primary" and nominate by convention within the first half or so of September.

[Greedo punched first]

If McCain does indeed retire, Arizona will probably become one of, if not thee most active state of 2018. A whole slate of state offices and 2 Senate seats at the same time makes for massive investments.

Anyway, hopefully McCain can beat this. Brain cancer - or any cancer at all, is no way to go

The governor nominates a candidate to serve the remainder of the term. If/when Ducey nominates someone, there won't be a special election in 2018.

No, there will be a special election. All states with gubernatiorial appointment have a special election the next even number year even if the term doesn't expire then. Carte Goodwin was appointed in WV in 2010. Robert Byrd's term was up after 2012. Goodwin decided not to run in the 2010 special election. When Bob Dole resigned in 1996, Sheila Frahm was appointed (Dole's term was going to expire after the 1998 election. Frahm lost to primary challenger Congressman Sam Brownback, who won the special election in 1996.  Appointed Senators are up for election in November of the next even number year (some states hold them earlier). The appointed Senator in AZ will be up for election in 2018.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If McCain does indeed retire, Arizona will probably become one of, if not thee most active state of 2018. A whole slate of state offices and 2 Senate seats at the same time makes for massive investments.

Anyway, hopefully McCain can beat this. Brain cancer - or any cancer at all, is no way to go

The governor nominates a candidate to serve the remainder of the term. If/when Ducey nominates someone, there won't be a special election in 2018.

No, there will be a special election. All states with gubernatiorial appointment have a special election the next even number year even if the term doesn't expire then. John Seymour was appointed in California in 1991. Pete Wilson's term in the Senate was going to expire after the 1994 election. Seymour lost in the 1992 special election. When Bob Dole resigned in 1996, Sheila Frahm was appointed (Dole's term was going to expire after the 1998 election. Frahm lost to primary challenger Congressman Sam Brownback, who won the special election in 1996.  Appointed Senators are up for election in November of the next even number year (some states hold them earlier). The appointed Senator in AZ will be up for election in 2018.

Well, if McCain makes it another year or so, there won't be a 2018 election for his senate seat. If the vacancy is too close to the election, they can't add it to the ballot.

[Greedo punched first]

If McCain does indeed retire, Arizona will probably become one of, if not thee most active state of 2018. A whole slate of state offices and 2 Senate seats at the same time makes for massive investments.

Anyway, hopefully McCain can beat this. Brain cancer - or any cancer at all, is no way to go

The governor nominates a candidate to serve the remainder of the term. If/when Ducey nominates someone, there won't be a special election in 2018.

No, there will be a special election. All states with gubernatiorial appointment have a special election the next even number year even if the term doesn't expire then. John Seymour was appointed in California in 1991. Pete Wilson's term in the Senate was going to expire after the 1994 election. Seymour lost in the 1992 special election. When Bob Dole resigned in 1996, Sheila Frahm was appointed (Dole's term was going to expire after the 1998 election. Frahm lost to primary challenger Congressman Sam Brownback, who won the special election in 1996.  Appointed Senators are up for election in November of the next even number year (some states hold them earlier). The appointed Senator in AZ will be up for election in 2018.

Well, if McCain makes it another year or so, there won't be a 2018 election for his senate seat. If the vacancy is too close to the election, they can't add it to the ballot.

Unlikely. McCain might resign due to health issues. There will likely be a special election in 2018.

[Greedo punched first]

Doug Ducey will appoint a Sentor to replace McCain. Even if McCain is still alive then, he might resign. Who will he appoint? Martha McSally? Jan Brewer? Who might run in 2018: McSally, Brewer, Kyrsten Sinema, Ruben Gallego, Paul Gosar?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh dude way too soon

[Cactus Jack]

Oh dude way too soon

Sadly, I have to disagree. McCain's diagnosis is as awful as they come, but the terrible reality is that he's extremely unlikely to live to see another year, let alone another election. There's also a greater than zero chance that he resigns to focus on fighting the GBM.

If McCain does in fact either resign or pass away before the midterm, McSally is the odds-on favorite for the appointment simply on account of being the Republicans' best chance of holding the seat in the face of Arizona's fairly rapid leftward swing.

This is the seat for which I'd be willing to give up Kyrsten Sinema as my Representative. McSally is vastly better than Flake on the campaign trail, but she has no incumbency and comes with appreciably more baggage (namely the AHCA disaster). More to the point, she might just flat-out lose the primary to a madman like Schweikert, which would turn things significantly in Sinema's favor if she ran.

[Greedo punched first]

How would Sinema do against Brewer?

[Cactus Jack]

How would Sinema do against Brewer?

I'd say Tossup, tilt Sinema. Brewer isn't a popular woman any more in this neck of the woods, not that she ever really was to begin with; all the disgusting, discriminatory anti-Mexican crap she passed is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how utterly incompetent Brewer was as governor. Arizona still leans just R enough to give her an opening advantage, but Brewer's baggage, combined with how absurdly easy it would be to tie her to Trump in a state that hates him, would probably sink her in the end.

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win in a race between Sinema and Ducey (if he runs for Senate)?

[Cactus Jack]

Who would win in a race between Sinema and Ducey (if he runs for Senate)?

Unlikely that he does, but Ducey would stand a better chance than Brewer. He's not exactly popular, either, but he's still better-liked than Brewer ever was. He's also much more charismatic, not that that's tough when the competition is Jan Brewer. I'd say Lean Ducey, but fairly close to Tilt.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh dude way too soon

[Hifly]

What the hell is wrong with you people?

[Lachi]

I don't think he will live to see the next midterm election, let alone the end of his term.