AZ-SEN Class 3: Senator McCain

[Chief Justice Keef]

McSally is the overwhelming favorite to replace him when the appointment comes up.

A special Election for her seat would be Lean to Likely D, so it would be a scenario that pleases all - republicans get a new senator who can probably hold down the seat for quite a while as McSally is a moderate, and Dems gain a house seat.

Indeed. McSally is fairly young and inoffensive to Arizona voters and could easily continue comfortably holding McCain's seat, even as Arizona swings left. Any other Republican in the delegation - especially Franks and Schweikert, notorious kooky dukes that they are - would probably be even likelier to lose reelection than Flake.

Based on how Ducey has governed Arizona, it's more likely he appoints someone like Franks or Schweikert than McSally.

[Brittain33]

I merged two threads into a single thread for discussion of the political impact of the recent news around Sen. McCain. This is a controversial subject, but given that we all wish McCain the best in his fight with cancer, we can have room for a respectful speculative discussion. --Mod.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I didn't expect McCain to run for another term even before he was diagnosed with brain cancer. If he survives, he might resign before 2018.

[ShamDam]

I hope Senator McCain recovers and beats the odds -- I don't care about the political impact. He's a good man who deserves better.

That being said, and I take no joy in this -- it's worth noting that a special election in Arizona would put the Senate into play, where it wasn't before. It might seem callous to point out but it's true. And that's a big political development that will likely come to prominence sooner or later. I hope, if it comes to that, that McCain's legacy presides over a respectful campaign. But it could just as likely be tarnished by a fight that looks more like the rest of today's politics.

[windjammer]

Isn't Ducey this kind of rogue politicians who will sell this seat to the one willing to pay the most?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Isn't Ducey this kind of rogue politicians who will sell this seat to the one willing to pay the most?

Ducey's up for reelection too, so if he's smart he won't pull a Blagojevich.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Ducey appoint Gosar over McSally?

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

If there is a special election in 2018, then I predict that it (and Flake's reelection) will be Lean to Likely R, depending on McCain's successor.

First, there will probably be some voters who will vote R out of sympathy.

More importantly, though, having two seemingly-competitive Senate seats, in a year where Dems need to win all they can get, will bring LOTS of attention to Arizona. This will create a massive Ossoff Effect where millions are poured into a super-nationalized race. And the truth is, there would simply be more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona in 2018, and the nationalization of the race will wipe out any enthusiasm advantage Democrats have.

[I’m not Stu]

If there is a special election in 2018, then I predict that it (and Flake's reelection) will be Lean to Likely R, depending on McCain's successor.

First, there will probably be some voters who will vote R out of sympathy.

More importantly, though, having two seemingly-competitive Senate seats, in a year where Dems need to win all they can get, will bring LOTS of attention to Arizona. This will create a massive Ossoff Effect where millions are poured into a super-nationalized race. And the truth is, there would simply be more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona in 2018, and the nationalization of the race will wipe out any enthusiasm advantage Democrats have.

Would Paul Gosar, Trent Franks, or David Schweikert would beat any Democrat? Would Republican Martha McSally lose to a Tea Party challenger?

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

If there is a special election in 2018, then I predict that it (and Flake's reelection) will be Lean to Likely R, depending on McCain's successor.

First, there will probably be some voters who will vote R out of sympathy.

More importantly, though, having two seemingly-competitive Senate seats, in a year where Dems need to win all they can get, will bring LOTS of attention to Arizona. This will create a massive Ossoff Effect where millions are poured into a super-nationalized race. And the truth is, there would simply be more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona in 2018, and the nationalization of the race will wipe out any enthusiasm advantage Democrats have.

Would Paul Gosar, Trent Franks, or David Schweikert would beat any Democrat?

This is the GOP we're talking about. Plenty of GOPers will vote for crazy people if they have an R next to their name.

And this is especially so when Arizona Republicans know that their vote will determine whether the Senate has a GOP majority or not.

[The Mikado]

Will this seat opening up suck any talented Democratic pol out of the race against Flake? I can't help but be concerned that Flake will basically get a pass if this seat opens up because it'd be such an easier seat to go for.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Will this seat opening up suck any talented Democratic pol out of the race against Flake? I can't help but be concerned that Flake will basically get a pass if this seat opens up because it'd be such an easier seat to go for.

I think McCain lasts past the 2018 elections, not till 2022, but past 2018.

[Cactus Jack]

Will this seat opening up suck any talented Democratic pol out of the race against Flake? I can't help but be concerned that Flake will basically get a pass if this seat opens up because it'd be such an easier seat to go for.

I'd wager that Stanton stays in the race against Flake and Sinema goes for McCain's seat instead. They're our two absolute best candidates.

[I’m not Stu]

If McSally's appointed, does she win the GOP primary?

[Heisenberg]

If McSally's appointed, does she win the GOP primary?

I'd say she has a very tough time winning, considering her similarity to McCain, who barely struggled to cross 50% last year, and the fact that the more conservative and Trumpist "base" probably doesn't like her. This time, she'd lack McCain's advantage of long term incumbency. Her being from southern Arizona also potentially leaves an opening for someone from Maricopa Coutny. I'd imagine in that case, Graham and DeWit work out a deal where one goes for each seat. Schweikert, Franks, and/or Gosar, may also be interested in a promotion to the upper chamber.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Arizona open or closed primary?

[Figueira]

Even if McCain makes a miraculous recovery, he still probably retires in 2022. Democrats probably have a shot at picking it up (but let's not dance on McCain's grave).

[I’m not Stu]

Even if McCain makes a miraculous recovery, he still probably retires in 2022. Democrats probably have a shot at picking it up (but let's not dance on McCain's grave).

Even if he somehow recovers, I can see him resigning to focus on fighting the cancer. Tom Coburn, who is still alive, resigned in 2014.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh dude way too soon

Clown Kelli Ward doesn't seem to think so:

her

[I’m not Stu]

Would Kelli Ward win the GOP primary against Flake (for Class 1) or McSally (for Class 3)? Would Ward win the general election against a fairly strong Democrat?

[NewYorkExpress]

I think there's a non-zero chance Ward is appointed. Ducey knows she'd lose the primary, and it saves Flake from his primary opposition. I think it would be a cunning move.

[Heisenberg]

Would Kelli Ward win the GOP primary against Flake (for Class 1) or McSally (for Class 3)? Would Ward win the general election against a fairly strong Democrat?

McSally would definitely be the better opponent for Ward, by far. Much more of a "contrast" between the two, especially on foreign policy, but also on economics, two issues where she's way more like Flake than like McSally.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

If there is a special election in 2018, then I predict that it (and Flake's reelection) will be Lean to Likely R, depending on McCain's successor.

First, there will probably be some voters who will vote R out of sympathy.

More importantly, though, having two seemingly-competitive Senate seats, in a year where Dems need to win all they can get, will bring LOTS of attention to Arizona. This will create a massive Ossoff Effect where millions are poured into a super-nationalized race. And the truth is, there would simply be more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona in 2018, and the nationalization of the race will wipe out any enthusiasm advantage Democrats have.

Would Paul Gosar, Trent Franks, or David Schweikert would beat any Democrat?

This is the GOP we're talking about. Plenty of GOPers will vote for crazy people if they have an R next to their name.

And this is especially so when Arizona Republicans know that their vote will determine whether the Senate has a GOP majority or not.

Arizona has an even balance in partisan registration. The reason the state leans R is because of R-leaning independents who don't feel as bound to the party as registered Rs.

[I’m not Stu]

If there is a special election in 2018, then I predict that it (and Flake's reelection) will be Lean to Likely R, depending on McCain's successor.

First, there will probably be some voters who will vote R out of sympathy.

More importantly, though, having two seemingly-competitive Senate seats, in a year where Dems need to win all they can get, will bring LOTS of attention to Arizona. This will create a massive Ossoff Effect where millions are poured into a super-nationalized race. And the truth is, there would simply be more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona in 2018, and the nationalization of the race will wipe out any enthusiasm advantage Democrats have.

Would Paul Gosar, Trent Franks, or David Schweikert would beat any Democrat?

This is the GOP we're talking about. Plenty of GOPers will vote for crazy people if they have an R next to their name.

And this is especially so when Arizona Republicans know that their vote will determine whether the Senate has a GOP majority or not.

Arizona has an even balance in partisan registration. The reason the state leans R is because of R-leaning independents who don't feel as bound to the party as registered Rs.

GOP-leaning independents might not vote for a candidate like Ward or Schweikert.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ward is now calling for McCain to step down as soon as possible: http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/21/politics/kfile-kelli-ward-mccain-diagnosis/index.html