2020 Pence vs Kasich Republican primary
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 11:26:09 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Alternative Elections (Moderator: Dereich)
  2020 Pence vs Kasich Republican primary
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2020 Pence vs Kasich Republican primary  (Read 1278 times)
Medal506
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,814
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:09:18 AM »

Map your maps. This is if Trump doesn't run again
Logged
P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,085
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2017, 11:51:34 AM »


Vice President Mike Pence
Former Governor John Kasich

Colors here are not margins. Darker=earlier in the primary calendar, and lighter=later
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,772


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2017, 12:33:28 PM »

if Trump doesnt run again , Pence is doomed



Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2017, 01:11:57 PM »


Vice President Mike Pence
Former Governor John Kasich

Colors here are not margins. Darker=earlier in the primary calendar, and lighter=later

I think California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Utah, Nevada, and North Carolina would go to Kasich, giving him the nomination.
Logged
P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,085
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2017, 02:56:36 PM »

I think California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Utah, Nevada, and North Carolina would go to Kasich, giving him the nomination.
I could see Kasich winning CA, NM, PA, NV, and NC, but Utah is too conservative for his politics imo and Indiana probably won't vote against their own former governor
Logged
Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,561
Bermuda


Political Matrix
E: 0.32, S: 4.78

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2017, 03:35:13 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2017, 09:50:04 AM by clash »

Kasich would have a hard ceiling of 25% in every state primary outside of Ohio. In a head-to-head matchup against Pence.
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,016
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2017, 08:23:57 AM »

As a Moderate Dem, Id love to see Kasich. If he got the nomination I'd likely be voting GOP.
Logged
Medal506
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,814
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2017, 08:33:42 PM »

As a Moderate Dem, Id love to see Kasich. If he got the nomination I'd likely be voting GOP.


As a conservative Republican I would not cast my vote for Kasich or Pence or Trump. I don't settle for politicans who don't get anything done
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2017, 02:58:34 PM »

As a Moderate Dem, Id love to see Kasich. If he got the nomination I'd likely be voting GOP.


As a conservative Republican I would not cast my vote for Kasich or Pence or Trump. I don't settle for politicans who don't get anything done

... Say what you will about Kasich, but he's done a great deal as a politician.

As a Moderate Dem, Id love to see Kasich. If he got the nomination I'd likely be voting GOP.
I like kasich a lot but his position on abortion is gross to me
Sure, but you can't be a one issue voter.
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,016
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2017, 05:38:37 PM »

As a Moderate Dem, Id love to see Kasich. If he got the nomination I'd likely be voting GOP.
I like kasich a lot but his position on abortion is gross to me

Wow, until this post I didn't know he was so right on choice. Kinda makes me rethink a lot. Being pro life is one thing but being extreme about it is another. I don't mind ban on abortions past 20 weeks, that's 5 months - by that point your mind should be made up - once it can survive outside the mother, I become less comfortable with abortion and I consider myself to be very pro choice.
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,510


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2017, 03:56:54 AM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich
Logged
FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,302
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2017, 07:24:39 AM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich

... Did you just give Kasich all the state's Trump failed to get a majority in?
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,510


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2017, 01:02:15 PM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich

... Did you just give Kasich all the state's Trump failed to get a majority in?
for some states yes the logic works if Kasich gets endorsed by Cruz and Rubio but I admit its not exact and the west coast could be different as they had their primaries after Kasich and Cruz dropped out I also gave trump all of the ben carson supporters
Logged
Medal506
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,814
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2017, 10:51:24 AM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich

Both Cruz and Rubio endorsed Trump last year though
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,510


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2017, 11:06:59 AM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich

Both Cruz and Rubio endorsed Trump last year though
Cruz and Rubio do not like trump
Trump called cruz's wife ugly and trump berated Marco its without a doubt they would back Kasich against his succesor
Logged
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2017, 07:54:05 PM »



VP & Fmr. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

I don't think that it's all that sound to base Pence's results off of Trump's 2016 primary results, because although Pence is tied to Trump, they are very different brands of Republicanism.

Kasich succeeds in the more moderate and less religious Northeast and West Coast (along with a couple Midwestern states Trump won last year), while Pence (as expected) excels among more religious and more culturally conservative constituencies. CO, NM, AZ, NV, and PA are the closest states (so the Southwest in general is a hotly contested region), although several states in the Mountain West and Great Plains are relatively small victories for Pence (NE, MT, KS, and potentially WY and the Dakotas would be far from blowouts).
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2017, 09:41:27 PM »



VP & Fmr. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

I don't think that it's all that sound to base Pence's results off of Trump's 2016 primary results, because although Pence is tied to Trump, they are very different brands of Republicanism.

Kasich succeeds in the more moderate and less religious Northeast and West Coast (along with a couple Midwestern states Trump won last year), while Pence (as expected) excels among more religious and more culturally conservative constituencies. CO, NM, AZ, NV, and PA are the closest states (so the Southwest in general is a hotly contested region), although several states in the Mountain West and Great Plains are relatively small victories for Pence (NE, MT, KS, and potentially WY and the Dakotas would be far from blowouts).
How on earth does Pence win Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maine, Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, North Carolina? Those were some of Kasich's best states. North Carolina has a huge amount of young people, and if Kasich were getting so much recognition and high poll numbers, they would turn out for him.
Logged
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2017, 10:30:56 PM »



VP & Fmr. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

I don't think that it's all that sound to base Pence's results off of Trump's 2016 primary results, because although Pence is tied to Trump, they are very different brands of Republicanism.

Kasich succeeds in the more moderate and less religious Northeast and West Coast (along with a couple Midwestern states Trump won last year), while Pence (as expected) excels among more religious and more culturally conservative constituencies. CO, NM, AZ, NV, and PA are the closest states (so the Southwest in general is a hotly contested region), although several states in the Mountain West and Great Plains are relatively small victories for Pence (NE, MT, KS, and potentially WY and the Dakotas would be far from blowouts).
How on earth does Pence win Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maine, Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, North Carolina? Those were some of Kasich's best states. North Carolina has a huge amount of young people, and if Kasich were getting so much recognition and high poll numbers, they would turn out for him.

I was assuming that most of Cruz's core consistency supports Pence, because they have similar religious conservatism beliefs. Maine and Alaska were two states Cruz won, so I gave them to Pence. Pennsylvania I could see going either way, which is why I said in my explanation that it would be one of the closest states (maybe looking back I would've changed it to Kasich). NC and VA are quite socially conservative despite being swing and lean-D states respectively, so I used that logic to give them both to Pence, although I'm sure Kasich could put up a good fight there as well. I just see Pence doing better among the Appalachian coal-miner demographic as a whole, which makes up much of the GOP base in VA.
Logged
Medal506
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,814
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2017, 10:47:38 PM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich

Both Cruz and Rubio endorsed Trump last year though
Cruz and Rubio do not like trump
Trump called cruz's wife ugly and trump berated Marco its without a doubt they would back Kasich against his succesor


Trump and Cruz both have the same relationship that Obama and Clinton had pretty much
Logged
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2017, 11:02:41 PM »

John Kasich is one of my favorite leaders. He's an honorable man.  He's a decent man.  He is a tolerant man.  He is a compassionate man.

For all of those reasons, He can't win in my party right now.  He would be toast.

Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,510


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2017, 12:03:42 AM »


President Mike Pence
Governor John Kasich
Kasich would get the endorsements of the anti trump coalition of Rubio and Cruz and Jeb! and unite the nevertrumpers against kasich

Both Cruz and Rubio endorsed Trump last year though
Cruz and Rubio do not like trump
Trump called cruz's wife ugly and trump berated Marco its without a doubt they would back Kasich against his succesor


Trump and Cruz both have the same relationship that Obama and Clinton had pretty much
Did Obama ever call Bill ugly?  Did Obama say Hillary's father assassinated JFK?
Cruz is just kissing up to trump because he's president and their in the same party
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2017, 12:04:49 AM »



VP & Fmr. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

I don't think that it's all that sound to base Pence's results off of Trump's 2016 primary results, because although Pence is tied to Trump, they are very different brands of Republicanism.

Kasich succeeds in the more moderate and less religious Northeast and West Coast (along with a couple Midwestern states Trump won last year), while Pence (as expected) excels among more religious and more culturally conservative constituencies. CO, NM, AZ, NV, and PA are the closest states (so the Southwest in general is a hotly contested region), although several states in the Mountain West and Great Plains are relatively small victories for Pence (NE, MT, KS, and potentially WY and the Dakotas would be far from blowouts).
How on earth does Pence win Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maine, Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, North Carolina? Those were some of Kasich's best states. North Carolina has a huge amount of young people, and if Kasich were getting so much recognition and high poll numbers, they would turn out for him.

I was assuming that most of Cruz's core consistency supports Pence, because they have similar religious conservatism beliefs. Maine and Alaska were two states Cruz won, so I gave them to Pence. Pennsylvania I could see going either way, which is why I said in my explanation that it would be one of the closest states (maybe looking back I would've changed it to Kasich). NC and VA are quite socially conservative despite being swing and lean-D states respectively, so I used that logic to give them both to Pence, although I'm sure Kasich could put up a good fight there as well. I just see Pence doing better among the Appalachian coal-miner demographic as a whole, which makes up much of the GOP base in VA.

Kasich and Rubio did remarkably well in Virginia. Considering Barbara Comstock, Ed Gillespie, and Tom Davis, I would venture to say that it's reasonably moderate.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.079 seconds with 12 queries.