Biden vs. Warren vs. Harris vs. Cuomo vs. Booker

[TheSaint250]

The people that I think are most likely to run and do well in the primaries. How would this play out? Discuss with maps.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (DE)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)

[Lord Admirale]

Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (DE)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)

I'd give Biden Iowa, Ohio, and West Virginia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (DE)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)

I'd give Biden Iowa, Ohio, and West Virginia.

[Mr. Morden]

Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (DE)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)

No way does it end up that evenly divided.  We haven't had more than three candidates winning outside their home states in either party's presidential primaries since 1988 (at least if you define "winning" by popular vote in the state rather than delegate allocation).  And post-1972, we've never had more than three candidates winning more than three states.  But you've got four candidates each winning at least seven states.

The more likely path for a splintered field is something like the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Republican contests: The winning candidate wins at least half the states, with the rest of the states split up among no more than two other challengers, with possibly a fourth candidate managing a token victory in his/her home state.

OTOH, your map makes more sense if you consider the prediction as an exercise in guessing the plurality probability winner in each state viewed in isolation, ignoring the fact that whichever candidates get some early victories are going to become more likely to keep winning.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I'd give Biden Iowa, Ohio, and West Virginia.

I would expect Warren to appeal to the working class folks in those states the way Bernie did. Iowa could very well go for Biden, but that's just me being a Warren hack.

OTOH, your map makes more sense if you consider the prediction as an exercise in guessing the plurality probability winner in each state viewed in isolation, ignoring the fact that whichever candidates get some early victories are going to become more likely to keep winning.

This was what I had in mind. It was more of a "if every state held their primary on the same day early in the campaign, who would win and where?"

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Fmr. VP Joseph Biden (D-DE)
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) (grey on map)

Biden wins less-educated whites and moderates in most states, allowing him to carry most of the Midwest, Mountain West, and Great Plains. He loses a vast majority of urban areas, but does better in them than Sanders did, meaning he pulls off victories in states like Illinois and Michigan despite them having large urban areas making up much of their Democratic base. Warren wins highly educated whites, especially in her home region of New England, as well as the most progressive members of the party. Harris excels among highly educated minorities, notably in the MD/VA/NC area, in the Southwest, and along the West Coast - she's popular among those not quite liberal enough to love Warren but slightly more liberal than Booker and Biden. Warren and Harris dominate the counties with large universities overall. Booker does well with less-educated minorities and with voters in his home state, but has extremely poor numbers among whites nationally. Cuomo manages to narrowly win his home state of New York but fails to expand upon that.