The ultimate "what-if's" on the Kennedy's

[MillennialModerate]

To me these are some of the most interesting and fascinating questions as far as "What-If's on American politics. The Kennedy's are Americas Royal family who seen so much political success but their personal tragedies have led to so many what if questions and I'm curious what the consensus is on these and the difference in the answers from Dems, Independents, GOP and otherwise

And yes I know some of these have already been
discussed on here but I just thought putting them all together
would be interesting

1. Would JFK have won in '64? (and would
Goldwater have been his opponent?)

2. If he won in '64 would his 2nd term have
been a good one or would he be ruined by Vietnam like LBJ?

3. If JFK wins in '64, which brother would
have been next to run and in which year?

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4. If RFK had survived 6/4/68
or if it didn't happen, would he
have won the nomination?

5. Had he not won the nomination,
would he have been Humphrey's VP pick?

6. Had he won the nomination, does he win the Presidency?

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7. If Chappaquiddick does NOT happen does that change anything about Teddy and the Presidency? (Does he run in '72, does he run in '76 or does he beat Carter in '80? If he does beat Carter does he beat Reagan?

8. Assuming everything happens as it did ('63, '68, Chappaquiddick) - Does Teddy win if he runs in '76? (mistrust of Republicans, not clear Dem favorite)

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9. If JFK Jr lives, does he ever
run for political office?

10. If he does, what office? (House, Senate
from NY, Senate from MA, NY Governor?)

11. If he runs for political office and
wins does he ever run for President?

12. If he runs for President, would he have won?

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

1. Yes, Kennedy would have won big but it still would have been a smaller victory than RL 1964.

2. A little bit mixed, he'd become less popular but the war in Vietnam wouldn't be so... "Hyped" due to the lack of American prescense there. Maybe in his later years he would send troops to Vietnam, so people wouldn't have gotten "Vietnam fever" when they did.

3. Probably Bobby in '72 after some Republican won in '68.

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4. If he survived and it did happen, he certainly would have.

5. No way

6. I could see him beating Nixon.

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7. Most likely 1976.

8. If he runs on a populist platform.

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9. Yes

10. U.S. senate from NY

11. Most likely

12. Yep

[Oppo]

1: Most likely, he would have won. If Romney is the nominee, I'd see it as a properly close race.

2: Vietnam still happens like IOTL.

3: If LBJ stays on in 1964 (which I think is unlikely), RFK may run against him in 1968 (the two despised each other). Otherwise, I'd say 1972, or 1976 if there's a Democratic incumbent in 1972.

4: HHH had a large lead in delegates, the support of the establishment, and he was the symbol of the Democratic Party from the 1940s to the 1970s.

5: RFK isn't the type of guy to take the VP spot, I'd say no.

6: No. Any Democrat in 1968 needs to win Texas, and LBJ would not have his political machine support RFK (some even say that he would even help Nixon).

7: EMK only ran in 1980 to stop Carter, he didn't want to be POTUS. If he wins against Carter, he would lose to Reagan (polls showed them doing around as well as each other against Reagan). He may do better in the PV, but worse in the South, giving him fewer EVs.

8: I'd say so, Chappaquiddick wasn't as big news in 1976, and Carter still won with his Playboy scandal.

9: EMK was encouraging him to, and there were reports he'd run in 2000/2002.

10: NY Senate in 2000 was probably his best chance, and would cause HRC to go to another state or delay a run for office. There were reports before his death that he'd run for NY Gov in 2002, but Pataki was too popular at the time. In 2000, he'd win, but I think he'd lose in 2002.

11: I'd say so.

12: It depends on the year. In 2008, as long as Bush is the incumbent, I think he could beat HRC and the others (BarryO may not run if that's the case). 2016 could also be a possibility, but it depends if he can stay in the limelight.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Robert Kennedy survives Sirhan's attack, he probably would've won the nomination on a groundswell of sympathy and probably the presidency.

If Sirhan stays home, RFK almost certainly doesn't win the nomination. He probably runs in 72 (if Nixon isn't popular), 76 or 80..

[MillennialModerate]

 

1. Yes, easily in fact.

2. I strongly believe Vietnam plays out differently and he takes the pragmatic approach and it doesn't become the firestorm that did. However Civil Rights unrest dominates and the civil rights bill doesn't ultimately get past till his last year in office.

3. Bobby in 76.

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4. If he survives he SURELY wins it. If it doesn't happen it's a tossup but remember no one secured nearly enough delegates to win and back then if no one had enough to clinch it then back room arm pulling was big.

5. I say Humphrey offers it but Bobby doesn't take it.

6. Yes, not in a rout but still comfortably.

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7. I think Teddy isn't apprehensive about running in 76, thus he runs and wins. I don't think he would have had a successful administration like his brother John and like his brother Bobby would've. Not saying Teddy would be awful but likely average

8. Just answered the question: Yes.

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9. Yes

10. Torn here, many close to him said he had eyes on being Governor in '03. But the Senate seat was his if he wanted it

11. Once he enters politics, it would be very anticlimactic for him to not seek the big prize, so yes.

12. Yes and it would be the closest thing to a landslide youd see in modern Presidential politics

[Rookie Yinzer]

1. Yes to both. It would not have been the landslide it was though. LBJ clearly received sympathy votes.

2. Ruined by Vietnam. He doesn't do as much domestically as LBJ did. The Civil Rights Act/Voting Rights Act happens after MLK assassination.

3. Bobby '76

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4. Humphrey was going to be the nominee no matter what.

5. No. There is no way he would have been the VP of someone from the LBJ administration.

6. He loses the presidency. The chaos of '68 scared voters to the Republican party. He loses states like Texas, though he may win one or two states in the Midwest that Humphrey lost but not enough to win the Electoral College. He also suffers because racial minorities are still not quite active politically and his support among youth is harmed by the 21 voting age requirement.
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7. Runs in 76 and wins due to name recognition and Watergate.

8. Yes.
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9. Yes

10. Senator NY 2000 or Governor NY 2002

11. Yes

12. Yes. 2008 with Obama as his running mate.  Landslide.