Current 2018 Senate Predictions?

[Xing]

Can we all chill a bit? Honestly, it doesn't matter whether we predict R+10 or D+3. These are just very early predictions, and some races that look competitive now might not end up even being close, and some seemingly safe races could be much closer than expected.

[Rjjr77]

I really don't understand why so many people think Tester is this heavily favored popular titan while Heitkamp is DOA.

I don't think Heitkamp is DOA or Tester is a heavily favored popular Titan, but I do think he wins, and she loses. I think he has to fight to win, and she loses a battle.

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

I think Air Claire is absolutely done.

[Rjjr77]

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

You can go circle jerk with Krazen if you honestly still think R+7 or whatever retarded projection you had is still likely. Not happnening with Trump's approval rating and this GCB.

R +7 is more likely than D +3.

[Rjjr77]

IN and MO are both much more likely to flip than WV and ND, and "R+2" is not the Republican ceiling. Geez.

You can go circle jerk with Krazen if you honestly still think R+7 or whatever retarded projection you had is still likely. Not happnening with Trump's approval rating and this GCB.

R +7 is more likely than D +3.

Where the hell did I say D+3?

its not specific to you, but there are people who think D +4 exist on here, and to call out an R + 7 as "retarded" (probably shouldn't still use that, but I'm not going to be the PC Police) when there are a large chunk of people up here who think D +4 (let alone D+3) exist.

As for your initial analysis, the question is not if trump is unpopular it is where and with whom is he unpopular, there are a lot of moderate republicans and right leaning unaffiliated who aren't particularly approving of trump, these people will still vote republican. As for where, I think approval numbers for trump are higher in several states than people think they are, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, Michigan, and North Dakota being a handful of them. At this point I don't trust the approval numbers, because just like 1vs1 national horse races national approval ratings aren't going to be deciding the senate seats (they'd do better in the house races)

[Rjjr77]

Seeing as I have only been here since December of 2016, I'm not sure what the hell you're talking about. Or if you've even seen my avatar. NEWS FLASH: predicting a good D year != being a Democrat.

There are several people who have a green avatar and are still more partisan than the most hackish red or blue avatars. My impression is that you definitely seem to despise the Republican base, even more so than the party itself.

I don't even care about your predictions, I just find it laughable that there seems to be a consensus on this site that the GOP can't pick up more than 2 seats. It wouldn't be as insufferable if people didn't keep repeating it it in every thread on this board. Like it or not, not every race in the country will be decided by the president's approval ratings, or else people like Heitkamp, Manchin, JBE, Scott, etc. all wouldn't be serving today. Even in 2014, the GOP struggled to win in Democratic leaning-states and in Republican states like KS and GA.

The worst part of all of this is that after the Democrats win in VA and NJ in 2017 and make gains in the legislatures, everyone will see this as proof that  2018 will be a Democratic landslide.

Did they really struggle in Georgia? Perdue won an open seat against a legendary name by over 7 points.

[Rjjr77]

Did they really struggle in Georgia? Perdue won an open seat against a legendary name by over 7 points.

They had to pour millions into GA and KS, which was pretty pathetic IMO. Most people thought the race was going to go to a runoff.

I know the state is trending Democratic, but Nunn was an incredibly overrated candidate and didn't really excite the Democratic base.

Also, the map was incredibly bad for Democrats in 2014. Had the Class 3 Senators been up for reelection in 2014, the Dems likely would have picked up a seat despite it being an Obama midterm (NH and IL, but a loss in NV). Maybe Toomey would have lost as well, given Corbett's implosion.

I don't think the state is trending democratic, its less republican but until the democrats actually win something (anything) statewide how can we continue to say that? 2016 and 2012 the vote margins for democrats weren't much different, many more went with the libertarian.

[heatcharger]

I don't even care about your predictions, I just find it laughable that there seems to be a consensus on this site that the GOP can't pick up more than 2 seats.

The wide consensus on here is that Republicans are gonna have a filibuster-proof majority. This guy represents most people on Atlas:

70 Republicans, 30 Democrats.

[GlobeSoc]

Additionally - the Senate GOP defended 19 seats going into 2010. The DNC defended 13, or roughly thereabouts. The GOP flipped blue states like IL, WI (at the time), among other states. Why would TN (which was 51-48% R in 2006) not be out of reach? Why would it be impossible for a 50-50 Senate?

I agree, but just to be a devil's advocate I'd point out that you'd need a serious candidate for a win to be possible, and those may be in short supply in TN

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

[Sir Mohamed]

My prediction is somewhat between no net change or two gains for the GOP. Most vulnerable Democrat in judgement is Joe Donnelly (D-IN). I'd give him 40% reelection chance. McCaskill (D-MO), Heitkamp (D-ND), Brown (D-OH) and Tester (D-MT) are somewhat endangered; I'd give each a 50% chance for reelection. Dean Heller (R-NV) will likely lose if Trump's numbers stay below 40% approval. Flake (R-AZ) will probably hang on. If he loses the primary to a Tea-Party hack, Democrats have a good shot at winning. Cruz (R-TX) will prevail by high single digits. TX is not ready yet. I don't know why so many posters think Manchin (D-WV) will lose. He won all his races in WV, governor and senator, by large numbers. He'll win by at least 10 or 15 points.

Random question: What does DOA mean? Dead on arrival?

Ratings:

[Hoosier_Nick]

My prediction is somewhat between no net change or two gains for the GOP. Most vulnerable Democrat in judgement is Joe Donnelly (D-IN). I'd give him 40% reelection chance. McCaskill (D-MO), Heitkamp (D-ND), Brown (D-OH) and Tester (D-MT) are somewhat endangered; I'd give each a 50% chance for reelection. Dean Heller (R-NV) will likely lose if Trump's numbers stay below 40% approval. Flake (R-AZ) will probably hang on. If he loses the primary to a Tea-Party hack, Democrats have a good shot at winning. Cruz (R-TX) will prevail by high single digits. TX is not ready yet. I don't know why so many posters think Manchin (D-WV) will lose. He won all his races in WV, governor and senator, by large numbers. He'll win by at least 10 or 15 points.

Random question: What does DOA mean? Dead on arrival?

Ratings:

Yes, also question: why is RI likely Dem but MN/NJ are safe?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup

Current Projection is GOP +2 ignoring tossups, with tossups GOP +2 (Ohio and Nevada Dem, ND GOP)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO, NV, and MI flips

[Coraxion]

MO, NV, and MI flips

Eh... Kid Rock is probably a better candidate than some random state legislator, but I don't see Stabenow losing unless a bunch of other Dems lose as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not necessary true, we can have different states voting opposite of what they usually vote.  Like in the presidential election, the Dems can win without OH or Iowa and those are no longer bellweathers.

Sen-elect Kid Rock, GOP pickup MO, Senator elect Ward and Senator elect Rosen

53R's-47D

[Orser67]

With Trump's approval rating likely in the 30s, and with Democrats already fielding solid candidates in every competitive race except Arizona, I expect Democrats to break even.

With that said, I could also see Democrats losing all in five of the red states (not counting Ohio) with Democratic incumbents, even while they win Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCaskill is gone

[Gone to Carolina]

McCaskill is gone

She's certainly not favored imo, but calling her DOA when election day is over a year away is just asking for her to win.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill is gone

She's certainly not favored imo, but calling her DOA when election day is over a year away is just asking for her to win.

My thoughts exactly. It is a race she should not win and it would be the third election that she is not supposed to win.

But still the overconfidence I am feeling from the MO GOP on this race mirrors the overconfidence I felt from MO Democrats on the gubernatorial contest last year.

[Coraxion]

The impossible has happened: I admit that a Democratic incumbent (McCaskill) is not favored to win reelection with what we know right now. Happy?

[MT Treasurer]

The impossible has happened: I admit that a Democratic incumbent (McCaskill) is not favored to win reelection with what we know right now. Happy?

No, they're not happy until you say Safe R. They jerk themselves to sleep every night saying that to themselves. BUT DONT YOU DARE SUGGEST FLAKE IS NOT FAVORED

Sad! But do tell... are you going to be very devastated if she loses?

[_]

Until I see more polls Flake stays Lean R, but he is definitely in trouble atm.
MO is Lean R as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP will likely be in same position they were in, in 2016, in 2020, up 53-47 in Senate and a narrow majority in House around 227

[Don Vito Corleone]

If you're wondering why Casey is safe,
A)His last name is Casey
B)He is running in a Trump Midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is a pure tossup right now.