States that will flip in 2020

[Senator-elect Spark]

R: New Hampshire
D: Michigan

[Del Tachi]

MN, MI and PA

[Coraxion]

Being generous to Trump:

MI
PA
WI
FL
NE-02
AZ
NC
GA

[Bidenworth2020]

MI, 100% sure, but not sure bout others

[Mr. Smith]

'04 2.0:

MI, NH, ME, NV, CO

'80 2.0:

NC, GA, AZ, FL, PA, WI, NE-02, MI

[Neoliberal Shill]

MN, MI and PA

Wait...you think MN will flip to the GOP, and MI and PA will go blue. I don't see both happening.

Personally, I think PA, MI, WI, and probably FL will flip. AZ is a tossup.

[Tancred]

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.

[Xing]

A lot can happen in three years. I think Michigan is definitely the most likely to flip, while other plausible R to D flips are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, NE-02, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, and maybe ME-02, Georgia, and Iowa. Plausible D to R flips are New Hampshire, Minnesota, and maybe Maine at large, Virginia, and possibly Nevada.

[Bidenworth2020]

fl will flip b/c of climate change to safe D by 2032

[Rookie Yinzer]

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida

[Bojack Horseman]

Easiest and safest flips are MI, PA, and WI. If the nominee is someone like Cory Booker, I say FL and maybe even NC flip. If it's a particularly big landslide, OH and IA go back to voting for the winner again.

[TDAS04]

MI, PA, WI

[Technocracy Timmy]

If Pence wins, the most I can see flipping would be Maine at large, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada. If a Democrat wins it could be a realignment so a lot of states have the potential to flip.

[NewYorkExpress]

Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Florida and ME 01 likely all will flip.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Just thinking about this makes it hard to see how Trump wins reelection, but I won't underestimate him.

In order of likelihood, the most plausible Dem pickups are MI, PA, WI, and FL. The most likely Trump pickups are NH and NV though those three are shaky. To everyone saying MN will flip, I doubt it, since the twin cities metro saved Hillary Clinton there, and I don't think she hit the ceiling.

[TheSaint250]

If it's Trump: who knows where we'll be then?
If it's Pence:

-WI
-PA
-MI
-don't know about the others

[Progressive]

MI, WI, PA, FL

[Technocracy Timmy]

If it's Trump: who knows where we'll be then?
If it's Pence:

-WI
-PA
-MI
-don't know about the others

Yeah, Pence is not obviously stronger than Trump.  He would probably lose a lot of Obama-Trump voters in the rural North and flip back a bunch of wasted 3rd party and Clinton votes in Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Orange County.  Pence would need to win the PV by 2 to get Trump's map.

The Midwest has been a swing region in the country for some time now. George W. Bush campaigned on a very different platform than Trump but came very very close to flipping a lot of Midwestern states in 2000 and 2004. The continued de-unionization of the region since then has no doubt fueled the Republican trends in many of these states.


Wisconsin is a state I think Pence will carry for a few reasons:

1. It strongly favored a more Cruz style candidate to Trump in the primaries.

2. It came within a single percentage point of victory for Bush II in both 2000 and 2004.

3. Scott Walker and the Tea Party wave played very strongly here and have been rewarded electorally for their efforts.

4. Trump received less total raw votes than Romney did in the state so Pence defintely has room to grow with Romney voters that Trump left on the table here.

[Technocracy Timmy]

If it's Trump: who knows where we'll be then?
If it's Pence:

-WI
-PA
-MI
-don't know about the others

Yeah, Pence is not obviously stronger than Trump.  He would probably lose a lot of Obama-Trump voters in the rural North and flip back a bunch of wasted 3rd party and Clinton votes in Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Orange County.  Pence would need to win the PV by 2 to get Trump's map.

The Midwest has been a swing region in the country for some time now. George W. Bush campaigned on a very different platform than Trump but came very very close to flipping a lot of Midwestern states in 2000 and 2004. The continued de-unionization of the region since then has no doubt fueled the Republican trends in many of these states.


Wisconsin is a state I think Pence will carry for a few reasons:

1. It strongly favored a more Cruz style candidate to Trump in the primaries.

2. It came within a single percentage point of victory for Bush II in both 2000 and 2004.

3. Scott Walker and the Tea Party wave played very strongly here and have been rewarded electorally for their efforts.

4. Trump received less total raw votes than Romney did in the state so Pence defintely has room to grow with Romney voters that Trump left on the table here.

I agree with you on Wisconsin, but I can't see Pence winning Michigan in any situation where Trump is forced out of office or retires.  He would also have a harder time in Pennsylvania and Florida (due to the Midwestern/New England retirees who fueled Trump's win there).  He should have an easier time in NC/VA/NV/CO, but VA will be pretty far gone by 2020 and Trump won NC anyway.  I think OH and IA are gone for Democrats going forward regardless of who the nominee is, same with VA for Republicans.  

I agree with most of this. Florida is a state I think Pence could win more easily than Trump though. He won't alienate Hispanics quite as much as Trump did even if there's some drop-off with white voters from now til 2020. Plus Florida has trended Republican in 3/4 elections, 2.8 points Republican from 2000-2016, etc.

So basically the Trump map minus Michigan is what I'd suspect Pence will do. Recent special and local elections have showed that African American turnout is stabilizing to their pre-Obama levels which definitely hurts the Democrats in the Midwest and Florida going into 2020. Plus Pence is smart enough not to not campaign on such a rowdy and racially charged campaign. I think he'll improve on Trump's margins with minority voters; particularly Asians and Hispanics.

[JMT]

If Trump somehow ends up being slightly more popular than when he won in 2016, I think best case scenario for him is keeping his 2016 states and flipping New Hampshire and possibly Minnesota.

In the more likely scenario in which Trump is less popular: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania would be the first and most likely to flip to Dems.  Then Florida, North Carolina and ME-02 would be the next likely set to flip. Ohio and Arizona could still flip to Dems, but less likely. I personally think Iowa is out of reach for Dems next time, but it's still plausible to flip to Dems considering Obama won it twice (but Iowa is the least likely to flip out of the "plausible" flips).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Trump's approval rating is below 40% on election day, I honestly cannot see him winning reelection. I would see AT LEAST Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin flipping.

[JMT]

If Trump's approval rating is below 40% on election day, I honestly cannot see him winning reelection. I would see AT LEAST Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin flipping.

And with these three states gone, the presidency would also be gone for Trump. Even if Trump kept every other state he won in 2016 and just lost these 3, he'd lose 260-278.

[Lachi]

In order
Almost certainly
MI
PA
WI
Likely
FL
Possible
NC
AZ
Unlikely
ME-2
GA

[TheSaint250]

If it's Trump: who knows where we'll be then?
If it's Pence:

-WI
-PA
-MI
-don't know about the others

Yeah, Pence is not obviously stronger than Trump.  He would probably lose a lot of Obama-Trump voters in the rural North and flip back a bunch of wasted 3rd party and Clinton votes in Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Orange County.  Pence would need to win the PV by 2 to get Trump's map.

The Midwest has been a swing region in the country for some time now. George W. Bush campaigned on a very different platform than Trump but came very very close to flipping a lot of Midwestern states in 2000 and 2004. The continued de-unionization of the region since then has no doubt fueled the Republican trends in many of these states.


Wisconsin is a state I think Pence will carry for a few reasons:

1. It strongly favored a more Cruz style candidate to Trump in the primaries.

2. It came within a single percentage point of victory for Bush II in both 2000 and 2004.

3. Scott Walker and the Tea Party wave played very strongly here and have been rewarded electorally for their efforts.

4. Trump received less total raw votes than Romney did in the state so Pence defintely has room to grow with Romney voters that Trump left on the table here.

I agree with you on Wisconsin, but I can't see Pence winning Michigan in any situation where Trump is forced out of office or retires.  He would also have a harder time in Pennsylvania and Florida (due to the Midwestern/New England retirees who fueled Trump's win there).  He should have an easier time in NC/VA/NV/CO, but VA will be pretty far gone by 2020 and Trump won NC anyway.  I think OH and IA are gone for Democrats going forward regardless of who the nominee is, same with VA for Republicans.  

I agree with most of this. Florida is a state I think Pence could win more easily than Trump though. He won't alienate Hispanics quite as much as Trump did even if there's some drop-off with white voters from now til 2020. Plus Florida has trended Republican in 3/4 elections, 2.8 points Republican from 2000-2016, etc.

So basically the Trump map minus Michigan is what I'd suspect Pence will do. Recent special and local elections have showed that African American turnout is stabilizing to their pre-Obama levels which definitely hurts the Democrats in the Midwest and Florida going into 2020. Plus Pence is smart enough not to not campaign on such a rowdy and racially charged campaign. I think he'll improve on Trump's margins with minority voters; particularly Asians and Hispanics.

I'd just be worried that being as conservative as Pence is, he could turn off some voters. I feel like he would probably either move a bit more to he center on social issues or just not talk about them as much.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup just released composites of its January-July polling by states over the time and from polls following the midpoint of that polling as well as what one sees in Gallup polls, it is hard to see how a Republican wins a free and fair election for President in 2020.

 

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher