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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: dead heat  (Read 1434 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 24, 2017, 12:08:21 pm »
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44/44.
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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2017, 12:17:30 pm »
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I don't believe that will be close in the end, something like +5-+10 for Northam.
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2017, 12:31:03 pm »
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It's time to start tying him to Trump.
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2017, 12:48:57 pm »
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Among those who are undecided or support the third party candidate, 22% approve and 60% disapprove of Trump.

Does not look good for Gillespie.
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2017, 01:04:21 pm »
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Moderate suburbanites and black voters will decide the Va. gubernatorial election.

However, it is July 2017, and people will start to pay attention by mid-October 2017.
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2017, 01:07:45 pm »
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Among those who are undecided or support the third party candidate, 22% approve and 60% disapprove of Trump.

Does not look good for Gillespie.

Exactly, every negative add should have Trump in it and run them like crazy in NoVA.
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2017, 01:17:08 pm »
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It's time to start tying him to Trump.

59% of people say Trump is not a factor in how they'll vote for governor, plus 14% saying a minor factor. This is not as good a strategy as it may seem despite Trump having a 57% disapproval rating.

I think the problem is Northam is still too anonymous with 46% having no opinion, but it is only July, and people don't start paying attention until September-October.

I also don't want to unskew, but this poll has a 47-36 Republican primary voting history advantage. That doesn't seem right considering the way the primary went this year.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 01:18:49 pm by heatcharger »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2017, 01:30:54 pm »
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I think the problem is Northam is still too anonymous with 46% having no opinion, but it is only July, and people don't start paying attention until September-October.

I also don't want to unskew, but this poll has a 47-36 Republican primary voting history advantage. That doesn't seem right considering the way the primary went this year.

Good points!

59% of people say Trump is not a factor in how they'll vote for governor, plus 14% saying a minor factor. This is not as good a strategy as it may seem despite Trump having a 57% disapproval rating.

Tying Gillespie to Trump in NOVA only might be worthwhile. Even if people say it isn't a factor, it still might be subconsciously. I seriously doubt for many people their candidate choice is actually isolated from their feelings on Trump, although given just how low Trump's approvals are in Virginia, it might be the case that a negative Trump effect will already be built into the race in terms of enthusiasm and other factors whether or not Northam chooses to carry out an anti-Trump campaign.
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2017, 01:38:51 pm »
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Tied? For sure. Next.
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2017, 02:28:44 pm »
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Tying Gillespie to Trump in NOVA only might be worthwhile. Even if people say it isn't a factor, it still might be subconsciously. I seriously doubt for many people their candidate choice is actually isolated from their feelings on Trump, although given just how low Trump's approvals are in Virginia, it might be the case that a negative Trump effect will already be built into the race in terms of enthusiasm and other factors whether or not Northam chooses to carry out an anti-Trump campaign.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think people, especially in NOVA, dislike Trump because of his fundamentally rotten character and corrupt dealings, not necessarily his policies that he's advocated (although those are also extremely bad and unpopular). I think this may drive turnout among angry Democrats who may have skipped off-year elections in the past, but it's harder to convince nonpartisans that Trump is a good enough reason to vote against Gillespie.

Another problem is Virginia never got the Medicaid expansion, so Northam can't even rail against the healthcare bill as a statewide issue as effectively as it would in New Jersey, for example. I think Northam needs to just run the standard VA Dem playbook of going heavy on jobs, schools, and transportation.
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2017, 02:39:56 pm »
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Gillespie seems to have a bizarre appeal to moderates in Virginia I don't really understand but it is time for Democrats to start taking him seriously unless they want to throw a race they should be winning 100% of the time. Northam needs to improve his anonymous numbers and needs to get out a positive message with every ad he releases. I've not heard anything about Northams' agenda outside of 'I'm a generic moderate Democrat' which is kind of like the anti-Gillespie tbh.

Anyway the lack of any sort of acknowledgement from the red avatars in this thread is stunning, it's like people are in complete denial YET AGAIN

Republicans have a Trump problem but the Democratic Party isn't much more popular (if any), though it may be in Virginia. Democrats have time to define a message but they've not really done so yet.

This is still Lean D but it is moving towards tilt category if Dems continue to sleep on it.
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2017, 03:14:11 pm »
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^ Democrats aren't really sleeping on anything. There is a still a rather blatant enthusiasm gap between the two parties right now, which is compounded by the partisan leanings of VA. Further, Northam had to expend a lot of resources to put down Perriello, so it's not surprising that he doesn't have enough gas in the tank right now to substantially increase his exposure. If this is still the case come mid-late September, then yeah, might be a problem, but otherwise, Gillespie is still the one with a hill to climb.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think people, especially in NOVA, dislike Trump because of his fundamentally rotten character and corrupt dealings, not necessarily his policies that he's advocated (although those are also extremely bad and unpopular).

Oh, that is another good point. That reminds me of something by Gallup (iirc) that showed that Trump's negatives are driven in large part by differences of character, whereas Bush and Obama was mainly based on policy. I hadn't considered the potential implications of that in elections happening under Trump's tenure.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 03:15:43 pm by Virginia »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2017, 04:16:40 pm »
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I go to Fairfax County every week, and Trump is toxic there. Gillespie however, appears to have more appeal. Still, the pessimistic way he describes Virginia's economy seems to be directed soley at Trump voters, and this message won't resonate, if not repel, voters in the urban crescent.
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2017, 04:39:07 pm »
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Is there a poll for Lieutenant Governor?

A tie for Northam probably implicates a loss for Fairfax.
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2017, 07:27:15 pm »
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Go Gillespie!
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2017, 08:00:04 pm »
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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.
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FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2017, 08:14:54 pm »
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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote

While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation.

"A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 08:16:32 pm by Dwarven Dragon »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2017, 08:18:58 pm »
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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote

While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation.

"A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?
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MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker
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NV-Sen:  Dean Heller
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« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2017, 08:23:05 pm »
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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote

While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation.

"A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

Quote
  Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate. 
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« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2017, 08:26:39 pm »
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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote

While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation.

"A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

Quote
  Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate. 

So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright.

Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters.
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2017:
German Federal Election:  AFD
VA-Gov:  Ed Gillespie

2018:
IL-Gov:  Bruce Rauner
MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker
MO-Sen:  Josh Hawley
NV-Sen:  Dean Heller
CA-Gov:  Gavin Newsom <3
KY-6:  Amy McGrath
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« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2017, 08:48:58 pm »
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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote

While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation.

"A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

Quote
  Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate. 

So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright.

Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters.

If Dems were remotely competent, Trump's approval rating in the state/district should be a ceiling on the GOP share of the vote in any election held for the next 4 years unless the Dem candidate has a yuge scandal.  That's how it worked in the Obama years.

Er, not really. Obama's approval in Louisiana in 2014 was around 35%, but Mary Landrieu received 44% of the vote.
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« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2017, 09:24:33 pm »
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Trump is going to be a bigger factor in federal races than local races. Northam should run on health care, education, jobs and his profile (veteran/doctor). In fact the whole campaign should be more positive, I am not a fan of the scorched earth ad strategy we saw from McAuliffe & Clinton, Mook ran both of those campaigns btw.
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« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2017, 11:29:54 pm »
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Jesus Christ.... Democrats... It should not be this close.
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« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2017, 10:54:32 am »
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Jesus Christ.... Democrats... It should not be this close.

Recent polls on RCP include Tie, Northam +8, and Northam +11. If the race actually stands at something like Northam +5, then yes, it should be this close in some polls (as well as not so close in other polls). That's how polling works.
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« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2017, 11:04:54 am »

New Poll: Virginia Governor by Monmouth University on 2017-07-23

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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