Alittle too confident?

[Keystone Phil]

Corzine might be the frontrunner in the '05 Gubernatorial race in NJ but isn't it alittle much for the DSCC to put NJ as an "open Dem" seat in 2006?

[Erc]

Really, the only way Corzine loses in '05 is if he gets hit with some large scandal--in which case he might as well not bother running for re-election in '06...

I suppose.

[nini2287]

Really, the only way Corzine loses in '05 is if he gets hit with some large scandal--in which case he might as well not bother running for re-election in '06...

I suppose.

I agree.  If Corzine loses for whatever reason, his Senate seat will not be safe even if he runs again for it.  I'd say the Senate seat is "slight open Dem" at this time because

1) NJ's natural tilt towards the Dems

2) Corzine (assuming he wins Gov election) will essentially appoint the Democratic nominee and they will have a year of incumbency at the time of election.

However, with that being said Kean Jr. is a pretty strong candidate for the GOP which prevents this race from being lean, or even safe Democrat.

[Virginian87]

It would seem that this race is Corzine's to lose.  He's probably the most well-liked politician in New Jersey, and a whole lot less corrupt than most North Jersey Dems.  But Democrats should not get too confident, as New Jersey is a moderate state, with Republicans in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties in the West, and Salem, Gloucester, and Burlington Counties in the South.  Of sourse the Dems control North Jersey's urban areas and the counties that contain them as well as Camden.  Monmouth County has a substantial number of both Republicans and Democrats -it voted Bush in 2000 but Kerry in 2004.  But barring any mishaps from Sen. Corzine, I believe the New Jersey Governor's Mansion will stay in Democratic hands come November.

Now the Senate race next year, that'll be interesting...

[Keystone Phil]

Everyone is missing the point. The DSCC shouldn't be calling it an open seat because it won't be unless Corzine loses this year and retires. If elected, he will appoint someone to hold the seat and that person will probably run in 2006. Therefore, the seat is not open. So to say that it is open at this time or will be in the future (unless a seat holder is appointed who declares that he or she will not run next year) is false.

Also, Corzine will likely appoint Bob Menendez who will be the seat holder but doesn't have any real advantages, especially facing Kean. The only thing I am worried about is a Corzine-Andrews deal in which Andrews gets appointed because he didn't run for Governor this year. If this happens, the seat is slight lean Dem. At this time, I think the seat is slight lean GOP.

[Virginian87]

Everyone is missing the point. The DSCC shouldn't be calling it an open seat because it won't be unless Corzine loses this year and retires. If elected, he will appoint someone to hold the seat and that person will probably run in 2006. Therefore, the seat is not open. So to say that it is open at this time or will be in the future (unless a seat holder is appointed who declares that he or she will not run next year) is false.

Also, Corzine will likely appoint Bob Menendez who will be the seat holder but doesn't have any real advantages, especially facing Kean. The only thing I am worried about is a Corzine-Andrews deal in which Andrews gets appointed because he didn't run for Governor this year. If this happens, the seat is slight lean Dem. At this time, I think the seat is slight lean GOP.

Hopefully, Corzine will see that Menendez is just another corrupt North Jersey Democrat and appoint Andrews instead.  Robert Andrews is one of the better politicians in New Jersey and he certainly has potential. 

[Keystone Phil]

Hopefully, Corzine will see that Menendez is just another corrupt North Jersey Democrat and appoint Andrews instead.  Robert Andrews is one of the better politicians in New Jersey and he certainly has potential. 

Corzine and Menendez are North Jersey pals. If Menendez gets appointed, Kean has the edge in the General election. Menendez is so vulnerable that Andrews and others might run against him in the primary.

[TheresNoMoney]

Congressman Frank Pallone announced back in December that he is running for the U.S. Senate seat (no matter who Corzine appoints). So there will at least be a Democratic primary.

I read that Corzine could appoint acting governor Richard Codey and that he is extremely popular.

[Keystone Phil]

Congressman Frank Pallone announced back in December that he is running for the U.S. Senate seat (no matter who Corzine appoints). So there will at least be a Democratic primary.

I read that Corzine could appoint acting governor Richard Codey and that he is extremely popular.

We're counting Pallone as a serious candidate now?

Codey may be appointed but I doubt it. He isn't extremely popular but he is popular enough for the Dems to stay in good shape next year. If Codey was appointed, it would probably be to fill the seat for awhile. I doubt he'd run for it.

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't really know anything about Pallone except that he was one of the biggest opponents of CAFTA.

What do you know about him?

[Cashcow]

I hope Kean crushes Menendez, I really do.

[Moooooo]

I hope Kean crushes Menendez, I really do.

I hope you rot in hell.


j/k

Seriously, Kean wouldnt be all that bad.  Ive heard is very liberal.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really know anything about Pallone except that he was one of the biggest opponents of CAFTA.

What do you know about him?

Most important thing to know about him in regards to this race - He is the weakest of the candidates. I honestly have no idea what his purpose for running is. He declared way too early and will probably be stuck in the middle of a nasty primary. I guess he's just trying to be the "Progressive" voice in the race.

[TheresNoMoney]

Corzine should let Memendez run in 2008 and appoint Codey or Andrews instead.

Phil, thanks for the info on Pallone.

[Keystone Phil]

I hope Kean crushes Menendez, I really do.

I hope you rot in hell.


j/k

Seriously, Kean wouldnt be all that bad.  Ive heard is very liberal.

He is viewed as a moderate Republican and more conservative than his father. How you can suggest he is very liberal or even liberal boggles my mind.

[Keystone Phil]

Corzine should let Memendez run in 2008 and appoint Codey or Andrews instead.
.

Lautenberg might actually run again in 2008. He is doing some serious fundraising.

Appointing Codey wouldn't be smart. The Dems best bet is Andrews.

[Moooooo]

He is viewed as a moderate Republican and more conservative than his father. How you can suggest he is very liberal or even liberal boggles my mind.

Freepers are still wondering who will be the Republican candidate for Senate in 2006.

[TheresNoMoney]

What makes Andrews such an attractive candidate (I don't know anything about the NJ congressmen)?

[Keystone Phil]

He is viewed as a moderate Republican and more conservative than his father. How you can suggest he is very liberal or even liberal boggles my mind.

Freepers are still wondering who will be the Republican candidate for Senate in 2006.

So Freepers see Kean as a liberal and that makes him a liberal? Those guys are so Schundler obsessed and bitter. At the Schundler event on primary night, someone yelled, "Bret for Senate!" and I have no doubt that is who the Freepers are expecting to run but just because they are in love with the Bret Schundlers of the world doesn't mean Kean is a liberal.

[Cashcow]

What makes Andrews such an attractive candidate (I don't know anything about the NJ congressmen)?

He isn't overwhelmingly liberal, he's done a great deal of valuable work in Congress, and, most importantly, he's just about the only state Democrat who has completely avoided political bosses. Easy win.

I'm proud to have him represent me.

[Keystone Phil]

What makes Andrews such an attractive candidate (I don't know anything about the NJ congressmen)?

He's a young, more moderate Democrat close from part of south Jersey. Enough said.

[TheresNoMoney]

Do you mean Andrews is socially moderate or economically moderate?

Is Andrews good on economic issues (oppose free trade agreements, minimum wage increase, outsourcing, corporate welfare, etc.)?

[Cashcow]

Do you mean Andrews is socially moderate or economically moderate?

Is Andrews good on economic issues (oppose free trade agreements, minimum wage increase, outsourcing, corporate welfare, etc.)?

http://www.ontheissues.org/NJ/Rob_Andrews.htm

[A18]

So how is he moderate at all?

[Virginian87]

So how is he moderate at all?

He's center-left, supporting the death penalty and school vouchers while being pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-affirmative action.  But on the whole, I agree that he is more liberal than moderate.  Then again, this is New Jersey so he's probably considered more of a moderate here in relation to some New Jersey Democrats.