What would be the results in each state, based off this map?
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  What would be the results in each state, based off this map?
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The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
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« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2017, 09:26:02 AM »

Also, what's up with Mecklenburg?

That's a mistake. I glossed over NC and Virginia
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The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
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« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2017, 09:29:47 AM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #27 on: August 01, 2017, 12:51:32 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2017, 01:13:30 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #29 on: August 02, 2017, 10:09:01 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #30 on: August 02, 2017, 10:12:48 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #31 on: August 02, 2017, 10:25:27 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #32 on: August 02, 2017, 10:37:02 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states




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Kamala
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« Reply #33 on: August 02, 2017, 10:40:29 PM »

In this map, Reps are winning Hughes County, South Dakota. It hasn't voted Democrat since 1936 - so I'd say Dems have definitely won South Dakota.

They're also winning Minnehana County, home of Sioux Falls, and the largest county in the state. Obama did this, and he was reasonably close to winning - and in this map, Dems are winning by much more.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #34 on: August 02, 2017, 10:43:48 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #35 on: August 02, 2017, 10:58:03 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #36 on: August 02, 2017, 11:03:54 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.
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« Reply #37 on: August 02, 2017, 11:09:28 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #38 on: August 02, 2017, 11:57:01 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.

Does this map of the congressional districts seem decent: https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/f/f2/Map_of_Congressional_Districts%2C_2064.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803045441

Also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:Map_of_Congressional_Districts,_2064.png

Any districts that you think might need to be changed?
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« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2017, 11:51:10 AM »

Somehow, I'm skeptical that those districts could stay for 50 years. Wink
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« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2017, 11:52:03 AM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.

Does this map of the congressional districts seem decent: https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/f/f2/Map_of_Congressional_Districts%2C_2064.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803045441

Also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:Map_of_Congressional_Districts,_2064.png

Any districts that you think might need to be changed?

Nah that seems good to me except for Illinois. I don't think those few northern Illinois county's won by the republican are enough to flip the district in the North and also the one in California. But besides that, it looks good. There is some large county's in that district in California that the democrats one compared to the relatively sparsely population ones won by the Republican. I think if the District was further north then yes it would go republican but since it doesn't go that north i would say that it goes Democratic 1-5%.
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« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2017, 12:53:53 PM »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.

Does this map of the congressional districts seem decent: https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/f/f2/Map_of_Congressional_Districts%2C_2064.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803045441

Also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:Map_of_Congressional_Districts,_2064.png

Any districts that you think might need to be changed?

Nah that seems good to me except for Illinois. I don't think those few northern Illinois county's won by the republican are enough to flip the district in the North and also the one in California. But besides that, it looks good. There is some large county's in that district in California that the democrats one compared to the relatively sparsely population ones won by the Republican. I think if the District was further north then yes it would go republican but since it doesn't go that north i would say that it goes Democratic 1-5%.

Alright then. I will change those two districts to Democratic.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2017, 01:05:22 PM »

Somehow, I'm skeptical that those districts could stay for 50 years. Wink

I understand that. I just didn't feel like trying to redraw the districts.
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« Reply #43 on: August 03, 2017, 02:26:37 PM »

Somehow, I'm skeptical that those districts could stay for 50 years. Wink

I understand that. I just didn't feel like trying to redraw the districts.
I could give it a spin, provided you have numbers for each state.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #44 on: August 03, 2017, 09:45:32 PM »

Somehow, I'm skeptical that those districts could stay for 50 years. Wink

I understand that. I just didn't feel like trying to redraw the districts.
I could give it a spin, provided you have numbers for each state.

Is it percentages that you need? Or what other figures?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #45 on: August 09, 2017, 09:49:09 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2017, 09:50:55 PM by Calthrina950 »


Is this map using the same scenario that we have been discussing, but with different county-level results. Would Democrats win a majority of counties? Or Republicans?


Yes. This is what i think a 66% Democratic landslide would look like. Some of the county's you showed (mostly rural ones) are too republican to go Democratic even in that case like for example Kings county in Texas which went to trump by over 90% over with other county's in the great plains which went 80-90% Republican in 2016. I based this partially off of how Republican they were in the last few elections. If they were under 66% Republican then i either give it to the democratic s or make the county close. If its over i give it to the republican. And then there are others i just guessed on or just what i think would happen. As for who wins the majority of county's. I say its close though its a Narrow Republican victory. Even in a 66% landslide today, the country is much more polarized then it was in 1964 (when the last democrat won the majority of county's) and there is a lot more county's that would vote republican no matter what.

So in this scenario, would the only Republican states still be just Idaho and Wyoming?

Plus West Virginia and Utah and Oklahoma, North Dakota and maybe Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky, Alabama.

So it seems as if it would be Idaho, Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama. That seems reasonable. I would think Nebraska-ALL and the 3rd district would be Republican, but the 1st and 2nd districts would be Democratic. I suspect Tennessee and South Dakota probably would be Democratic, and North Dakota might be, since it seems that Cass County, the most populous in the state, goes Democratic. Kentucky, I am not sure about.

For Tennessee and North Dakota i dont know. Those rural county's in both plus the suburban county's
in both would probably push the republicans over the edge. In North Dakota i based it off of 2008 and although the democrat won most of the Eastern County's and Native American Reservation ones like they did in 2008, McCain still won 53-44%. The map for North Dakota in the this gives the Democrats slightly more county's and also doesn't give the Democrats the Capital City; Bismarck which has a large population. For Tennessee i based it off of 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Gore won about the same number of county's or perhaps more but still lost 51-47%. In this map i gave some Central Tennessee county's though in exchange i gave it more urban ones. The Republicans still win however the heavily population Nashville Suburban county's and most Appalachian county's so i don't know though it would be close. For South Dakota; that is probably the most likely of those you listed to have gone Democratic. The Democrats win the Populated County's, Native county's, and Capital city though the Rural margins could make it close or maybe a tight republican win. For Kentucky that Probably still goes Republican. The map shown would just be a 1992 Kentucky election map translated to today with the Republicans winning more rural maps and the democrats winning in the Urban County's. So that means Dem dominance in East Kentucky more fractured though stronger in Louisville. Though i do think those Central and Western Republican county's plus
some Suburban county's surrounding Jefferson county and other urban county's would give the Republicans a 1-5% victory depending on Margins.

Republican states then would be Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The Democrats would win 41 states to the Republicans nine.

Yep plus Nebraska's Third and maybe second congressional District. The Closet States could either be Tennessee, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, or Kansas. Alabama may also be included

I see. As for my other scenario, although it would be implausible in some respects, I did make some revisions to the map, adding a few of the counties which you had in your version:

https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/6/6c/2064_Election_Map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170803032150

Now, I am trying to devise a map of the election results in my scenario by congressional district, based upon these county results. What would be your suggestions?

Id Say the Democrats definitely win most Congressional Districts. Maybe 300-450 out of 535 of all congressional districts. Dems sweep all districts in Washington, Oregon, Maybe Nevada, California slim, Maybe Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, All states in the Northeast and Midwest except maybe Wisconsin depending on how big the Reps win the Suburbs by near Milwaukee and also Indiana, Maybe Missouri, The Dakotas, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe 1 or two more states


In Wisconsin, I have Waukesha County going Democratic, along with Racine and Kenosha Counties. Jefferson, Rock, and Walworth counties in the south, along with Waushara and Wapaca Counties in the north, are the only Republican counties in Wisconsin. The Dakotas, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii would obviously see a clean Democratic sweep, and I think Arkansas would as well, though I have Benton and Caroll Counties in the northwest going Republican. What about the districts in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Florida, based upon the counties on my map?

Link also here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:2064_Election_Map.png

In Wisconsin i'm talking about those 5 clumped together southern county's. They fit right into the congressional district there so there is a chance the congressional district could of been won. For Arkansas Benton and Caroll would make it closer of course but there is also equally in population to Benton Washington County which goes Democratic along with Crawford and those other Democratic eastern county's in the District though as i said it would be close with Benton going Republican. For Alabama the Dems win the Black belt District of plus all of the deep southern Alabaman districts perhaps besides the one in the Southeast and a small chance of the one containing Mobile not to flip due to Baldwin county. Republicans win rest of the Districts though. For Mississippi the Black one of course plus maybe the one in the Center. For South Carolina Dems win all besides 1-2 northern districts and for the North Reps only win the Appalachian Districts, 1 central district and 1 along the coast maybe. For Virginia Dems win all except for Appalachian ones, 1 along the Chesapeake bay, and 1-2 Central rural districts. For Florida Dems win all Southern Floridian district minus one near Napels i believe and some deep red North Florida ones.

As for Idaho, I assume that both districts remain Republican; in Nebraska, the 3rd district is Republican, while the 1st and 2nd go Democratic; and in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma city and Tulsa districts go Democratic, with the others remaining Republican. I'm not sure about Louisiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky. West Virginia, I assume, would see all districts going Republican. In Utah, I imagine the 3rd and 4th districts would go Democratic, with the 1st and 2nd remaining Republican. In California, I believe only the district in the northeastern corner of the state would remain Republican.

Seems right.

I have one last map which I created, for a fictional 2020 scenario: https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/9/96/2020_Hypothetical_Election.png/revision/latest?cb=20170810024433

For that map, I gave to the Democrat (this time in traditional, not Atlas, blue), all counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and by Barack Obama in 2008/2012. Counties which John McCain won by less than 60% in 2008, counties Trump won by less than 61% in 2016, and counties carried by Democratic senators and governors in more recent elections, I also gave to the Democrat.

I'm pretty confident that Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Oklahoma would go Republican; possibly also Tennessee, Kentucky, and Nebraska, along with the two Dakotas and maybe even Kansas. But I wanted confirmation of that first. I was inspired to create this map by the Richard Cordray timeline posted elsewhere on this forum.

In this scenario, I was aiming for a 61-38 Democratic landslide, and I feel that, with that band of red through the middle of the country, and the pockets in the South, this would be somewhat reasonable. However, the scenario would be fictional, based around a fictional challenger unseating our current President.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #46 on: August 10, 2017, 10:38:26 PM »

I would the states won by Trump in that Map would be Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, South Dakota and North Dakota, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Most Likely Nebraska or at least 2 out of 3 congressional districts with one district definitively going to the Democratic Nominee.
In less confidentially guesses i would say Tennessee would very Slightly go to the Democrats and so would Kentucky with both being won either way by 2%.
Alabama and Montana are the only other states being close Democratic wins. Mississippi, Indiana, Georgia, Missouri are also close but on a different level with it being between 5-10/15% instead of under 5%.
As for the 2020 map as a whole i would say its unlikely as i believe that 2020 will either be a Close Republican Win or Close Democratic Win with it IMAO being more likely leaning towards either a Trump/Pence/Whatever other Republican nominee is selected by the Republican Primary Electorate or Party itself like Kasich.
With Trump being able to win massive numbers in Rural county's unprecedentedly i think a 61-38 Landslide Democrat Victory would be alot more red than that map shows.
For Example in Utah the only reason Trump won only 50% plus in most of those Utah County's minus the Ski County's and Salt Lake County was due to McMullins third party candidacy.
 In a Normal Election like in 2008 we would see alot of those county's going Republican 60-70%.
I judge normal like 2004/08 Numbers due to 2012 high Utah margin for Romney due to him being Mormon.
So because of this 70%+ normally republican voting county's like Utah County would vote Democrat by much smaller margins.
Same with alot of those Collar County's surround Salt Lake.
 Another Example can be Southeast Illinois. I see hear you based it alot off of 2008/12 Numbers which are inflated towards Democrats due to Obama. Trump in 2016 massively improved in the Southeast and Central County's of the State winning upwards of 70-80% in alot of county's in virtually all of the Southeast.
As such in a 61-38% Landslide Trump would still win county's in Illinois and the Democrats would fail to get a full county sweep.
Democrats would still win much more then 2008 Obama due to massive gains in the North and Around Chicago but it would not be a fully county sweep.
Also those Northern county's you show going to trump on that map would flip far before those Southeastern County's do.
There are others but i think you get my point. As for Richard Cordray then this could very well pass for a Realignment map.
The Democrats would win upwards of 450+ Electoral Votes and possibility more then 500 and much more then the 15% Margin Cordray got in 2024.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #47 on: November 12, 2017, 03:33:28 AM »



This is my map. It's based around the results of the 1996 election.
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