Lou Barletta Running for PA Senate

[KingSweden]

Does Barletta make this race lean more in the R direction (while still leaning towards Casey overall)?

I think Costello would be stronger, IMO. Casey and Barletta probably are a wash in the NE, so the PAGOP's best bet is still the collar. Fail to see how Barletta helps them there

[KingSweden]

Great news! Barletta is exactly the person who can retain Trump's monster vote surge in PA, an immigration hardiner.

His proven record on immigration as mayor of Hazleton will bring the blue collar Biden democrat from Northeast PA in full force to vote for him against out of touch Casey.

As of now, how would you rate this particular race? Safe R, Likely R, Lean R, Tilt R, Tossup, Tilt D, Lean D, Likely D, Safe D, or something else?

Likely R, Crimedelphia isn't turning out for uninspiring Casey.

The monster vote of Western, Central and especially Northeastern PA is, they want an extra body in the Senate too keep illegals out of the country.

Wow, what nuanced, intelligent analysis! Thank you for your tremendous contributions to election discussions on this forum

[KingSweden]

Barletta is certainly a B candidate, but I don't think there are any A candidates in PA.

Tom Ridge is old.  Schwieker really has no name ID anymore and no ambition.  Meehan/Gerlach couldn't get through a primary.  I don't see any A listers.

Man, Schweiker. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. If we're thinking of the same guy he must be really ancient. Older than Ridge, right?

[KingSweden]

Barletta is certainly a B candidate, but I don't think there are any A candidates in PA.

Tom Ridge is old.  Schwieker really has no name ID anymore and no ambition.  Meehan/Gerlach couldn't get through a primary.  I don't see any A listers.

Man, Schweiker. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. If we're thinking of the same guy he must be really ancient. Older than Ridge, right?

Younger than Ridge (his Lt. Gov who succeeded him after joining the GWB admin). Mark Schwieker is the man. Former Senator Richard Schweikert passed away two years ago. And Tom Ridge would not at all win a primary these days because he is pro-choice, #NeverTrump, etc. I don't think the Trumpist base would like him at all. I'd say Barletta is definitely the best recruit Republicans could land, but still Lean D for now.

Oh THAT Schweiker

[KingSweden]

Bear in mind Casey outperformed Obama '12 and Wolf '14 in Barletta's district, FWIW

[KingSweden]

Bear in mind Casey outperformed Obama '12 and Wolf '14 in Barletta's district, FWIW

I'm aware. Casey is a good fit for that area, but so is Barletta, and he'll the best candidate to try and neutralize it, which is necessary to win. I still have Casey as the favorite, but Barletta definitely has a path, albeit a narrow one with little room for error.

My read too. They both neutralize each other's biggest strength... which still leaves Casey with an advantage.