LouisvilleThunder - 290 49.65%Donald Trump - 248 48.53%Ohio would be the closest state decided by less then .5% though it would be the tipping point. Maybe that duty would belong to either some western state or one of Michigan, Minnesota, or Michigan. Basically better in the Rust Belt, Better in Appalachia and keep trump under 60% in Kentucky and Tennesee, Better in most southern states though there could be some return of rich suburbanites to trump in Florida which could make it trend republican, worse in the west with Trump winning Nevada. The Popular vote is closer then 2016 due to the fact that trump does better in the Mountain west and Texas.