Most overrated and underrated state trend?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Which state trend do you see as being the most overrated and which one underrated?

For overrated I mean a trend that is generally hyped up among the media and in political circles but either it's importance or magnitude is over hyped.  (As an example Montana in 2008 could fit in this category.)

For underrated I mean a trend that is generally ignored by the media or political circles with it's importance or magnitude is underrated.  (As an example Virginia in 2005 could fit in this category.)

For overrated I would say Minnesota. Minnesota's margin has actually remained fairly steady in recent years despite other  Midwestern states trending Republican. Republicans also have also struggled winning statewide races here since 2006 unlike many neighboring states where they have done very well recently. Minnesota is also likely to trend left with a Democrat who is more economically left wing.

For Underrated perhaps Delaware or Connecticut, mainly do to the GOP improving in the Northeast over the next few elections. Though I doubt either are really close to flipping.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Overrated: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia

Underrated: Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Utah

[hopper]

Underrated: Texas, Kansas, Rhode Island, maybe Hawaii (to Trump)

Overrated: North Carolina, Nevada (to Trump), New Mexico (to Trump), maybe Arizona

Basically, I think a lot of Johnson voters in the Southwest had Clinton as their 2nd choice.

Hawaii may have trended to Trump because Obama overperformed there because he(Obama) has ties to Hawaii.

[GGSETTER]

Overrated: The Midwest, but not because it isn't trending Republican (it appears as though it is) but come on now, Bush came very close in many Midwestern states in both 2000 and 2004. This region was never a "firewall" to begin with. He won Ohio twice and won Iowa in 2004. He came within less than a single point of flipping Wisconsin twice, etc. In 2000, Bush came within 2.5 points of flipping Minnesota, 4 in Pennsylvania, 5 in Michigan etc. You get the deal.

Underrated: Texas. Here's the 2016 CNN exit polls:



AFAIK there isn't quite the same large surge of old retirees moving Texas in the same numbers as Florida or Arizona. Plus this is a state where a lot of young people are headed towards which is likely counteracting that trend. The white and evangelical vote appears to be maxed out (whites voted 69-26% for Trump over Clinton) while the increasing share of Hispanics voted 61-34% for Clinton.

Texas is the electoral breadbasket for the GOP. They can afford to lose Georgia or Arizona but losing Texas (or more accurately, seeing it become a swing state that they have to spend a bunch of resources in defending) is something that is going to bite them in the ass in future elections.

There really isn't much of a case to be made that Texas is actually trending Blue. I'm
Going to copy and paste this from another post below:

If you actually look at the 2016 election in Texas outside of the President election the Republicans did as well as they always do. That means that Trump is a bad fit for the state so a lot of people voted down ballet Republican while leaving the President Box Blank or voted for Hillary.

Texas has a huge population. It's not like Nevada, Oregon or Colorado where the population is so small that migrants from California can flip the state. It would have taken millions and millions of people moving into the state from 2012 to 2016 to see the huge swing in the Election results we seen.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Overrated: Ohio, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Iowa, Maine

I hear Democrats freaking out about how Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maine could become swing states. I'm convinced that while Trump did overperform in those states, I don't think they'll swing much further towards Republicans, if they do at all.

Underrated: Kansas, Utah, North Carolina, Virginia

I don't expect Kansas and Utah to vote for Democrats in a presidential election anytime soon, but Trump could be causing long-lasting damage to the GOP in those states. Both are pretty well-educated states, and Trump did poorly among Mormon voters compared to other GOP nominees.

Also, I've heard a lot about how people say North Carolina isn't really a swing state, but this is one of the few states where I think the "demographics is destiny" argument is somewhat true. Combining the "rising electorate" in the state's metro areas and just enough WWC voters could eventually make NC go the way of VA.

[maga2020]

Overrated:

Arizona and Texas - low margins were driven by 3rd party defections, democrats barely increased their voting share.

North Carolina - it's been supposed to go the way of Virginia but it barely moves the sticks. GOP only loses it if it loses the popular vote by at least 6, even Roy Cooper, who led the entire race, won by a hair and only did it because McCrory proposed toll lanes at I-77 and lost suburban Charlotte voters that vote GOP because of an extremely localized issue, not because of HB2, swing voters don't care about trans bathrooms and broke for McCrory, an accomplished governor, he only lost because of those GOP suburbs quitting him, liberals in the triangle can't win it alone when blacks will go back to their pre-Obama turnout levels and the only thing that prevents whites from going 3:1 republican are white liberals from the triangle themselves. North Carolina is a pseudo swing state as much as Virginia, so they are increasingly separating themselves.

Underrated:

Maine and Rhode Island - ground zero of New England WWC, Trump turned Maine into a swing state (something the democrats couldn't do with Arizona and Georgia) and RI swung hard to him, thanks to democratic mismanagement the state keeps losing population and will soon become another WWC trumpland (only reason CT doesn't go along for the ride are the cities and indocrination centers aka universities).

Midwestern trends - the only state the democrats can keep in the future, if Ohio keeps voting GOP by margins like it did in 2016 or even larger is PA, Trump got a monster vote surge from PA but Ohio, which usually votes 5 points to the right of PA, voted nearly 7. There is a strong correlation between the results in Ohio and those in Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and even Minnesota, so if Ohio leaves the swing state status, the dems lose all these states, Minnesota voted to the right of the nation for the first time in ages, so, if Ohio goes the way of Missouri in the 00s, even a 4-5-point popular vote win will barely keep Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota blue, if it reaches Missouri 2016 margins these states are gone for good for the democrats, at best they get Missouri 2008 in Michigan and Indiana 2008 in Minnesota.

[Xing]

Overrated: Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin

Underrated: Minnesota, Nevada (general D trend, even if it trended Trump), New Hampshire, Oregon, Washington

[cvparty]

Overrated:

Arizona and Texas - low margins were driven by 3rd party defections, democrats barely increased their voting share.

remember both Trump and Clinton were unpopular and vote share loss was a force acting against both of them, so an increase in vote share for either candidate is pretty remarkable.

[Mr. Smith]

Overrated: North Carolina, Utah, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania

1. The current GOP have gerrymandered beyond hope, black turnout is what helped Obama when the popular vote was a 6 point D edge

2. Trump was a bad fit for the state, but Democrats are anathema no matter what they do, and given how decidedly un-Populist he's been and the acceptance those like Chaffetz get now, Trump can only go up at this point because he's R. McMullin probably cratered just because it risked flipping it to Hillary.

3. So Ayotte and Trump barely lost, doesn't change how close it was or the general swingy nature.

4. The state's always been really competitive, like the other Rust Belt states, Bush got really close to taking it and even Romney wasn't that far off from it. It should also be noted that there was a YUGE worker's strike that week which probably effected turnout in Philly...which was lower btw.

Underrated: Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Iowa

1. It wasn't just a 3rd party protest, Joe Arpaio and many other downballot offices got taken out, R stronghold in Maricopa Co. saw a significant swing to D. Hillary probably would've won it if she had deployed Tim Kaine the whole way AND done more than last minute run there...no wasting on Iowa or North Carolina.

2. Wayne County is what put Democrats over the edge, but it's shrinking and the old hold even with that seems to be loosening

3. Just a last minute bump, only slightly worse than North Carolina. Also, though it was $30 million, Jon Ossoff did cause a 20+ swing from just 2016

4. Joni Ernst ran a terrible campaign, hardly any better than Bruce Failey, yet the result was route anyway. Then the primaries favored Cruz over the then more populist Trump...Even if 1980 happened with the same margins, the swing would have to be super- non uniform to make a difference.

[OneJ]

2. Wayne County is what put Democrats over the edge, but it's shrinking and the old hold even with that seems to be loosening

This. I was actually thinking about Michigan yesterday and realized the main reason Democrats win is due to this county. Detroit is still experiencing major population loss (particularly the decline of blacks) and the younger, yet pretty liberal whites that are moving up there aren't going to be enough to carry it short term. Michigan is still obviously able to win back, but it'll be difficult when they can't depend on Wayne.

Maybe the diversifying suburbs could help some, but likely won't be enough.

[Lord Admirale]

Overrated: Utah, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Carolina

Underrated: Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New York

Pennsylvania should be a red flag for the Democrats, typically Republicans don't win high-turnout states, and PA's turnout was higher last year than turnout in 2012.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Overrated: PA, NH, CT, RI, ND
Underrated: MI, GA, TX, AZ, MN

Predictions as to 2020 trends
PA: R+.5
NH: D+2
CT: D+1
RI: D+3
ND: D+5

MI: R+4
GA: D+4
TX: D+3
AZ: D+2
MN: R+3

[TDAS04]

Overrated: UT, NC, PA
Underrated: AZ, OH, AK 

[This is Eharding, guys]

Underrated: CA, PA, WV, ND, VA, MA, to some extent OH, NH, SD, DE, and AZ. OK, KS, NE, and IL for CDs.

Roughly properly rated: IA, CO, WA, ME, OR, NY, NJ, MI, GA, MS, LA

Overrated: TX, WI, MT, NV, RI, UT, ID, CT

Uncertain: MN, FL

[AN63093]

Overrated I'd go with NC.  Over the past 10 years, NC might have been the state with the most attention and people talking about it, at least in terms of trend.. and yet, it never really materialized as the next VA.  That's not to say that it still won't- after all, take, e.g., the Raleigh MSA, which has the second highest growth rate in the country, behind Austin (among MSAs over 1 mil in population).  That's not to necessarily suggest that everyone moving in are Dems; too early to say on that for sure, but at the very least it does suggest that the state will continue to be in flux for some time.  That being said, I think the attention it gets is somewhat disproportionate to its actual expected effect on elections.  This one might not be overrated for much longer though, since I think 2016 has caused a lot of people to change their opinions on it.

Underrated, I'd say RI.  I'm not exactly sure why everyone thinks this one is overrated- is it just because we think it's a fluke?  Well that very well may be, but that's not what the definition of 'overrated' is.  I don't see nearly as much media coverage, attention, and political articles being written about RI's trend, as opposed to say... TX.  Which is understandable given that it's a small state with only 4 EVs.  But even if it is a fluke, since I don't think many people are paying attention to it, nor claiming it has much significance, I would say at the very least it's "properly rated."  For me, although it's certainly possible that RI goes back to how it was, I wonder if there isn't something greater at work here.  I grew up in NY and spent many summers in RI, and am fairly familiar with the demographics there and throughout New England generally.  If RI truly is trending GOP, then we can start drawing some interesting conclusions for other areas.  The type of voter that would typically vote D in RI can be found in other regions besides New England, and is also a very different demographic than someone voting D in say.. the Bay Area.  RI may go back, it's true, but I believe that the fact that two states that were in the top 5 for trending R (RI at #5, ME at #4) were in New England shouldn't simply be dismissed.

One state that I'm not sure is either underrated or overrated (since I'm not sure that it has any particular significance at all yet), but that I nonetheless find fascinating, is KS.  I don't think KS will vote D anytime soon, and the fact that it trended D may not even mean much, but I still think it's one of the most interesting "factoids" of the election.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Overated;FL

Underrated;CA

[twenty42]

One state that I'm not sure is either underrated or overrated (since I'm not sure that it has any particular significance at all yet), but that I nonetheless find fascinating, is KS.  I don't think KS will vote D anytime soon, and the fact that it trended D may not even mean much, but I still think it's one of the most interesting "factoids" of the election.

Kansas has a very young and educated population, and I just think Trump and Clinton were both horrible fits for their respective bases in the state. This was evident with both Cruz and Sanders winning their respective caucuses handily, and also the hard third-party swing in the GE (2.3% in 2012 to 7.4% in 2016). I don't read too much into Kansas 2016 except that they just weren't crazy about the choices they were given.

[Burke Bro]

Overrated: UT, NC, PA, FL, RI

Underrated: AZ, ME, TX, OH, WI