Senegalese Legislative Election, July 30, 2017

[Sir John Johns]

Parliamentary election is held today in Senegal, in order to elect the 165 members of the National Assembly, the Senegalese unicameral legislature.

Deputies are elected using a mixed voting system. 105 deputies are elected in 53 electoral constituencies (corresponding to the 45 Senegalese départements and the 8 newly created constituencies for Senegalese citizens living abroad) using a winner-take-all system in which the list which finishes ahead takes all seats of the constituency, the big prize being the Dakar département and its 7 seats. The remaining 60 seats are allocated through party-list PR in a national constituency using the simple quotient and greatest remainders rules.

The legislative election is considered as a test for the Senegalese political parties, two years before the next presidential election. Incumbent president Macky Sall (elected in 2012) seems poised to keep his overwhelming parliamentary majority (119 seats out of 150 in the outgoing parliament) thanks to his record in government (strong economic growth, institutional reforms). If his parliamentary alliance top the poll, he would appeared as the favorite for the 2019 presidential election. Otherwise, he would probably be forced into a coalition and would be compelled to appoint a prime minister coming from the opposition ranks.

The incumbent president is however helped by the fact that the two largest opposition blocs failed in last May in their attempt to constitute a broad electoral alliance and, consequently, are running separately. Therefore, the legislative election will be crucial to determine who will be Macky Sall’s leading opponent and the main opposition challenger in 2019: Karim Wade, the son of former president (2000-2012) Abdoulaye Wade, who currently resides in Qatar after having been sentenced to jail for corruption and having been pardoned by Macky Sall; or Khalifa Sall (no relation), the mayor of Dakar (elected in 2009 and re-elected in 2014), who is currently in jail for corruption.

The electoral campaign was plagued by violence (notably in the Dakar area) and the electoral authorities showed their incompetence and their amateurism: indeed the Autonomous National Electoral Commission (CENA) issued only 70% of the newly introduced biometric identity cards required to vote. As a consequence, the Senegalese government decided, in a controversial move, to permit voters to vote by presenting only their old identity card, their old electoral card or their passport and a mandatory “registration receipt” (récépissé d’inscription) proving that voters are actually registered on the rolls. According to the opposition parties this would facilitated electoral fraud in favor of the ruling coalition. So, once the election results will be known, it’s probable that the opposition would not recognized them.

This year, there is a record number of 47 lists (against only 24 in 2012) which are running. The three most important are:

Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) (“United in Hope”). The ruling coalition was formed in 2012 in the wake of Macky Sall’s election to the presidency. Its main components are: Macky Sall’s own Alliance for Republic (APR), a nominally liberal party founded by Sall in 2008 after his departure from Abdoulaye Wade’s PDS; the once powerful Socialist Party (PS), currently led by Ousmane Tanor Dieng (who ran for president in 2012 and got 13.6%), which is officially part of the Socialist International and which ran the country from the independence until 2000 under presidents Léopold Sédar Senghor and Abdou Diouf; the Alliance of Progress Forces (AFP), a self-described social-democratic party whose founder and leader is Moustapha Niasse, a very influential politician who served as prime minister under both Diouf (1983) and Wade (2000-2001), who is currently serving as president of the National Assembly and who ran for president in 2007 and 2012 (winning respectively 5.9% and 13.2%); the Democratic League/Movement for the Labour Party (LD/MPT), which was originally founded as – but is no longer – a marxist-leninist party; the National Union for the People (UNP) led by Souleymane Ndéné Ndiaye, a former prime minister (2009-2012) under Wade; and the Party of Independence and Labour (PID), an organization which described itself as a communist party. The BBY top candidate on the national list is Prime Minister Mahammad Dionne, who is campaigning on Macky Sall’s record in office.

Winning Coalition Wattu Senegaal (CGWS). One of the two main opposition alliances, it was formed earlier this year under the guidance of former president Abdoulaye Wade, 91, after the failure of the latter to reach an agreement with Khalifa Sall’s opposition coalition.

The main component of the coalition is Wade’s Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), which has been founded in 1974 and is officially a member of the Liberal International. The PDS has already designated its candidate for the 2019 presidential election: Karim Wade. The CGWS is also comprised by Bokk Gis Gis, a party led by Pape Diop, a former mayor of Dakar (2002-2009) and a former president of the National Assembly (2002-2007); Diop’s decision to ally with Wade was however rejected by an important faction of his own party. Also divided is the And Jëf/African Party for Democracy and Socialism (AJ/PADS) – a party which was originally founded as a Maoist group but has evolved to became a largely non-ideological outfit -: a wing led by Mamadou Diop Decroix is part of the CGWS while the wing led by the historical founder, Landing Savané, has expressed its support to Macky Sall. Finally, the Tekki Movement also chose to ally with Wade’s coalition. The Tekki Movement is led by Mamadou Lamine Diallo, a minor presidential candidate in 2007 (he got only 0.5%).

The CGWS top candidate on the national list is Abdoulaye Wade, who specially returned from exile in France to take part in the electoral campaign; it’s however widely assumed that, due to his age, Wade will not take his seat.

Manko Taxawu Senegaal (MTS). This opposition alliance was founded in early 2017 and originally included Wade’s PDS; its purposed aim at the time was to force a cohabitation with Macky Sall but this goal has been apparently abandoned due to the defection of the PDS and its allies.

The MTS top candidate on the national list is Khalifa Sall, the mayor of Dakar and a probable presidential candidate in 2019. Elected under the banner of the PS, Khalifa Sall is currently detained for corruption (he denies the accusation and claimed to be politically persecuted by Macky Sall) and has campaigned from the Rebeuss jail in Dakar. He is seconded by another PS dissident, Barthélémy Dias, the mayor of Mermoz-Sacré Cœur (a suburb of Dakar), who was also sentenced to jail for having shoot to death a PDS activist during a brawl at the Mermoz-Sacré Cœur town hall in 2011. While apparently not imprisoned, Dias blamed the judicial decision on political persecution by Macky Sall.

Besides of PS dissidents, the MTS also includes: the Grand Party (GP), led by Malick Gabou a former AFP member and a former cabinet minister under Macky Sall; Rewmi, a self-described liberal party founded in 2006 by Idrissa Seck, a politician who served as prime minister (2002-2004) under Wade and was mayor of Thiès from 2002 to 2014; the Front for Socialism and Democracy/Benno Jübel (FSD/BJ) a so-called left-wing party led by Cheikh Bamba Dièye, a former mayor (2007-2014) of Saint-Louis, a minor presidential candidate in 2007 and 2012 (he got respectively 0.5% and 1.9%) and a cabinet minister under Macky Sall; Bes Du Ñakk, a party which was founded as a citizen’s initiative by Mansour Sy Djamil, a Soufi marabout and a prominent opponent to both Wade and Macky Sall.

[Sir John Johns]

Noticeable also-ran:

Patriotic Convergence Kaddu Askan Wi. A political alliance which defended a “third way” between the opposition and the Macky Sall administration. It is led by Abdoulaye Baldé, currently the mayor of Ziguinchor (in Casamance), who used to serve as defense minister under Wade. Baldé is also the leader of the Union of Centrists of Senegal (UCS). The Patriotic Convergence also includes the Social Democratic Party-Jant Bi (PDS-Jant Bi), which is led by Mamour Cissé, a cabinet minister under Wade; and Waato Sita, a party led by Moustapha Guirassy, a former mayor of Kédougou (2009-2014) and a cabinet minister under Wade.

Dare the Future. A non-aligned political alliance whose leader is the PS dissident Aïssata Tall Sall. A famous lawyer who notably defended Khalifa Sall in his corruption case, Tall Sall is also mayor of Podor since 2009. She initially participated in the establishment of the MTS alliance but ultimately chose to run alone, which had led some in the opposition to say that she has been bought by the Macky Sall’s administration.

Joyyanti (“Reorient”). Also a non-aligned alliance which is led by Abdoul Mbaye, a former prime minister (2012-2013) under Macky Sall, and the leader of the Alliance for Citizenship and Labour (ACT). The Joyyanti coalition also includes the League of the Masses, the National Movement of Servants of the Masses, the New Alternative for Solidarity, and the African Party for Rebirth and Emergence, the latter being a split from the LD/MPT.

Ndawi askan wi (“Children of the people”). An opposition coalition, it is led by Ousmane Sonko, a tax inspector who was sacked by the Macky Sall government for having denounced various corruption cases, the most notable involving the president’s own brother. Sonko decided later to enter into politics and launched his own party, the Patriots of Senegal for Labour, Ethics, and Fraternity (PATEF). The Ndawi askan wi coalition also includes the islamist Reform Movement for Social Development (MRDP) and the self-described pan-africanist Democratic National Rally (RND).

Leeral Coalition. An opposition alliance led by the controversial lawyer El Hadji Diouf who notably defended former Chadian president Hissène Habré (who is judged in Senegal for crimes against humanity and torture) and pleaded against Karim Wade during the latter’s trial for corruption. Diouf recently made headlines by expressing his support for former Gambian president Yahya Jammeh. An independent deputy since 2007, he is also the leader of the Workers’ and People’s Party (PTP).

The Third Political Way Euttou Askan Wi. An opposition coalition which is led by Amsatou Sow Sidibé, a human rights lawyer who became in 2012 the first woman to run for presidency in Senegal (she got 0.2%). Sidibé also served as minister under Macky Sall until she was sacked for having criticized the incarceration of Karim Wade.

Manko Yeesal Senegaal. An opposition alliance led by Modou Fada Diagne, a former cabinet minister under Wade. Diagne left the PDS in 2015 to protest against the designation of Karim Wade as the party’s presidential candidate for 2019 and launched his own party, The Democrats and Reformers (LDR-Yessal).

Party for Truth and Development (PVD). A non-aligned and an islamic party linked to the Mouride brotherhood.

[Sir John Johns]

Voter turnout is estimated to be around 54%, up from 36.7% in 2012. According to partial results (to be taken with a pinch of salt), BBY finished far ahead with 48% (between 110 and 115 deputies) followed by MTS (24% and around 20 deputies) and by CGWS (20% and around 16 deputies). Far behind, the biggest surprise is the fourth position of the islamist Unity and Rally Party (PUR), linked to the Tijaniyyah Brotherhood, which would have won around 3 seats. Results are close in the Dakar département where MTS is slightly ahead of BBY.

The voting was marred by several incidents: most notably, in Touba (the second most populated city of the country and a stronghold of Wade’s PDS), several polling stations were destroyed, apparently by PDS activists.

[Neo-JacobitefromNewYork]

Seems BBY won 42 of 45 districts, have you seen any maps yet of voting patterns?

[Sir John Johns]

The Autonomous National Electoral Commission has proclaimed the provisional results, which have still to be validated by the Constitutional Council. The results (including the votes from the diaspora) are:

BBY 49.5%
CGWS 16.7%
MTS 11.7%
PUR 4.7%

I can’t find the results for the minor parties.

The seat counts is the following:

BBY 125 seats
CGWS 19 seats
MTS 7 seats
PUR 3 seats
Patriotic Convergence 2 seats
9 other parties/coalitions 1 seat each

Using the data provided by this newspaper website article, I have made a map (note that this is only provisional results).



The BBY lost only 3 départements, two of which (the Malinke-populated Saraya and Kédougou) being located in the Southeast corner of the country. Saraya was won for some reason by the CGWS while Kédougou was won by the Patriotic Convergence whose top candidate there was Moustapha Guirassy, a former mayor of Kédougou who seems to have maintain locally a strong following. The other département lost by the BBY is Mbacké (won by the CGWS), which is the home département of Abdoulaye Wade and a place where the Mourid brotherhood (which Wade heavily favored while in office) is very influential.

The BBY got his strongest results in the Northeast Toucouleur-populated départements, while being weak in the Dakar département and even more in the Diola-populated Western Casamance.