North Korea Mega Thread

[AtorBoltox]

This is utter insanity, however per the Guardian "There was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces" after Trump's statement. At this point American foreign/military policy and Trump's ramblings are two separate things

[GoTfan]

If we see out Auggust and no one does any more stupid saber-rattling, will we be in the clear for a time?

Somewhat but not totally. Every Feb and August are the drills which has NK up in arms every time we do those and why they are concerned. So yes and no.

I'll take it.

[Beet]

This is utter insanity, however per the Guardian "There was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces" after Trump's statement. At this point American foreign/military policy and Trump's ramblings are two separate things

If there was change in troop deployments, Japan and SK would be alerted and say no. However, Trump doesn't need them to start a war, just his B1-B's. He may think to force their hand by shooting first then they have no choice but be dragged in. Or think if no troop deployments NK won't retaliate, even though they'd still be forced to.

[Beet]

This is utter insanity, however per the Guardian "There was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces" after Trump's statement. At this point American foreign/military policy and Trump's ramblings are two separate things

If there was change in troop deployments, Japan and SK would be alerted and say no. However, Trump doesn't need them to start a war, just his B1-B's. He may think to force their hand by shooting first then they have no choice but be dragged in. Or think if no troop deployments NK won't retaliate, even though they'd still be forced to.

Beet you are correct in that it would be air only at first. The USA would open up as well but USAF/USN assets would strike NK with a metric-f ton of Tomahawks, maybe SLBMs, and B-1B/B-2 strikes. If we did boots-on (which we won't) it would open the door to China stepping in, which we don't want.

We already have boots on the ground, VirginiaModerate.

[BudgieForce]

This is utter insanity, however per the Guardian "There was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces" after Trump's statement. At this point American foreign/military policy and Trump's ramblings are two separate things

If there was change in troop deployments, Japan and SK would be alerted and say no. However, Trump doesn't need them to start a war, just his B1-B's. He may think to force their hand by shooting first then they have no choice but be dragged in. Or think if no troop deployments NK won't retaliate, even though they'd still be forced to.

Beet you are correct in that it would be air only at first. The USA would open up as well but USAF/USN assets would strike NK with a metric-f ton of Tomahawks, maybe SLBMs, and B-1B/B-2 strikes. If we did boots-on (which we won't) it would open the door to China stepping in, which we don't want.

We already have boots on the ground, VirginiaModerate.

30,000 in South Korea and I think 40,000 in Japan.

[GoTfan]

If we see out Auggust and no one does any more stupid saber-rattling, will we be in the clear for a time?

Somewhat but not totally. Every Feb and August are the drills which has NK up in arms every time we do those and why they are concerned. So yes and no.

I'll take it.

Good article on Freedom Guardian (Aug drills) sch for 21-31 Aug. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/north-korea-us-south-korea-huge-military-exercise KCNA article said the NK gens will present the plan to KJU to hit Guam in mid-Aug (15 Aug) for a go/no go. We are getting close. Either Kim blinks and does nothing or he goes all-in or is overruled by his gen staff.

Why would his staff overrule him? If Beet's theory is correct, they're the hardliners here.

[Beet]

This is utter insanity, however per the Guardian "There was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces" after Trump's statement. At this point American foreign/military policy and Trump's ramblings are two separate things

If there was change in troop deployments, Japan and SK would be alerted and say no. However, Trump doesn't need them to start a war, just his B1-B's. He may think to force their hand by shooting first then they have no choice but be dragged in. Or think if no troop deployments NK won't retaliate, even though they'd still be forced to.

Beet you are correct in that it would be air only at first. The USA would open up as well but USAF/USN assets would strike NK with a metric-f ton of Tomahawks, maybe SLBMs, and B-1B/B-2 strikes. If we did boots-on (which we won't) it would open the door to China stepping in, which we don't want.

We already have boots on the ground, VirginiaModerate.

Yes in Japan and SK but no boots on ground troops inside NK. What I was getting at is we wouldn't invade NK with troops like Iraq/Afghan. Maybe a few SOF to direct fire missions and take out certain hardpoints/personnel but the air assets can do that as well.

If our guys are getting shot at from the other side of the border, as they would in a war, at some point (very soon) the best military option will be to move the border, and at that point we'd go over it.

[TheSaint250]

If we see out Auggust and no one does any more stupid saber-rattling, will we be in the clear for a time?

Somewhat but not totally. Every Feb and August are the drills which has NK up in arms every time we do those and why they are concerned. So yes and no.

I'll take it.

Good article on Freedom Guardian (Aug drills) sch for 21-31 Aug. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/north-korea-us-south-korea-huge-military-exercise KCNA article said the NK gens will present the plan to KJU to hit Guam in mid-Aug (15 Aug) for a go/no go. We are getting close. Either Kim blinks and does nothing or he goes all-in or is overruled by his gen staff.

Why would his staff overrule him? If Beet's theory is correct, they're the hardliners here.

If Kim doesn't want to strike, maybe the hardliners do and will go forward anyway.

[GoTfan]

@Gotfan The theory (among others) is that they view KJU as weak. While he is a leader and almost God-like to the general populace, the old salts view him as a fat weakling but put up with the charade. If the hardliners actually think the US would strike and Kim says no-go, they might go around him but I think if Kim thought we would pre-empt, he would order the strike anyway. Catch 22.

So you're syin a strike is inevitable?

[BudgieForce]

@Gotfan The theory (among others) is that they view KJU as weak. While he is a leader and almost God-like to the general populace, the old salts view him as a fat weakling but put up with the charade. If the hardliners actually think the US would strike and Kim says no-go, they might go around him but I think if Kim thought we would pre-empt, he would order the strike anyway. Catch 22.

So you're syin a strike is inevitable?

There are no good options. Status quo DPRK, preemption, SOF strike, all have the guaranteed risk of NK hitting back. The statement put out by the NK Army for the mid-August go/no go for the Guam potential strike ups the ante to the extreme. So yes given the recent developments, and Kim Trump standoff. It is basically who shoots first in the old Western standoff. The key is that if we shoot first (preemptive or surgical strike) it opens the door for Chinese intervention.

No a strike isnt inevitable.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I have a feeling that tensions will drop this weekend. No side wants a war.

[BudgieForce]

I wonder what this could mean.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/896017139831799809

[GoTfan]

I wonder what this could mean.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/896017139831799809

I think someone on here theorised this exact situation. Use back-channels so both sides can back down without losing face,

[Sir Mohamed]

What actually has to happen right now and what I would do as president:

I would try to begin direct talks with North Korea and invite China, South Korea and Japan as well. I would propose the following points:

- N.K. ends its nuclear program and turns existing weapons over to China
- N.K. stops making treats to America and our allies
- The US and its allies won't do any more military maneuvers anywhere near NK.
- The western Allies guarantee N.K.’s existence and China pledges to defend it, if attacked.
- If successfully implemented, the progress will be reviewed each year and sanctions will be partially lifted in return

The big question here actually is: Does a détente policy actually help Kim? I'm doubtful about this and that's probably the reason why my points above may be too optimistic. He probably needs an enemy to play the role as the tough guy. And lifting sanctions means more foreign influence (culture, freedom of information etc.) what could weaken his regime. So it may be better for him to keep the country isolated.

[°Leprechaun]

Does anyone think that the 25th amendment could or will be used to remove Trump, who seems, in the words of section 4 "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.."?

[TheSaint250]

Just wondering, if the US government changes the DEFCON level, does it become public knowledge?

[Beet]

Everyone in this board should read this, it gives precisely what I was saying before but expands on the OOB, next steps, etc. http://www.businessinsider.com/us-preemptive-strike-north-korea-2017-3/#the-first-targets--3

Scenarios like this are highly speculative. The whole article assumes that they won't engage in large scale retaliation, but once a strike occurs, events could easily spiral out of control. Neither side can endure a large hit without equally large retaliation or completely lose face. Especially not Kim and his regime.

[HisGrace]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/11/china-pledges-neutrality-unless-us-strikes-north-korea-first.amp.html

China pledges neutrality if North Korea attacks U.S., will get involved if there is a preemptive strike.

Came here to post that. All the more reason not to preempt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just wondering, if the US government changes the DEFCON level, does it become public knowledge?

No.

[Higgins]

The biggest worry with North Korea isn't them attacking us, it's with nuclear proliferation. They are a poor country. Our sanctions aren't helping. They could easily sell nuclear materials to terrorist groups for money/food/supplies.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So is world war 3 bout to happen? Are we gonna die?

[BudgieForce]

So is world war 3 bout to happen? Are we gonna die?

Yes, slowly and painfully..../s

Of course not, stop asking.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The biggest worry with North Korea isn't them attacking us, it's with nuclear proliferation. They are a poor country. Our sanctions aren't helping. They could easily sell nuclear materials to terrorist groups for money/food/supplies.

Just like Saddam!


It was never a good story to begin with, and it's a really lame one now. If we can cope with attempts at nuclear proliferation by our allies like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, I think we can deal with the Hermit Kingdom too. Without fighting a war.

[Cory]

Point Of Order: Does anybody seriously think that China will throw away everything they've built over the past decades to defend North Korea? I mean really?

I know they have to suggest as much but if it came down to it I highly doubt they would actually go to war with the USA (thus triggering the instant collapse of their economy) over this issue. I mean c'mon, they aren't anywhere near stupid enough to do that.

It isn't 1950 anymore. If anything they would back-stab the DPRK and invade themselves to secure a buffer zone for refugees and humanitarian concerns after the fall.

[Beet]

Point Of Order: Does anybody seriously think that China will throw away everything they've built over the past decades to defend North Korea? I mean really?

I know they have to suggest as much but if it came down to it I highly doubt they would actually go to war with the USA (thus triggering the instant collapse of their economy) over this issue. I mean c'mon, they aren't anywhere near stupid enough to do that.

It isn't 1950 anymore. If anything they would back-stab the DPRK and invade themselves to secure a buffer zone for refugees and humanitarian concerns after the fall.

North Korea only exists because of China. I wish China were more anti-North Korea, but if they were, they would have enforced sanctions against North Korea more harshly a long time ago. Fact is, the Chinese believe if they didn't protect North Korea in event of an attack, they'd be throwing away the hard-won sacrifices they made during the Korean War (1950-53), and the PLA wouldn't find that tolerable.