North Korea Mega Thread

[The Mikado]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

Oh, that is fascinating.

I wonder how we should react if North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at China, instead of Guam or the continental United States.  More importantly, how would China respond?  Would it flood troops into North Korea, and effectively annex it after annihilating the Kim dynasty root and branch?  

I don't think annexing North Korea is on the PRC's wishlist. Their wishlist would go more towards installing a pliant puppet ruler who was dependent on PLA soldiers and cash to stay in power who would be less willing to do crazy rogue state antics while still being a buffer against South Korea.

[Santander]

Annexation of any part of Korea is off the table from a Chinese perspective. Without even getting into the obvious practical concerns, a not-insignificant part of Han self-esteem, at least from a political and cultural perspective, comes from the (not inaccurate) perception that Koreans admire and emulate them.

[KingSweden]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

Oh, that is fascinating.

I wonder how we should react if North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at China, instead of Guam or the continental United States.  More importantly, how would China respond?  Would it flood troops into North Korea, and effectively annex it after annihilating the Kim dynasty root and branch?  

I don't think annexing North Korea is on the PRC's wishlist. Their wishlist would go more towards installing a pliant puppet ruler who was dependent on PLA soldiers and cash to stay in power who would be less willing to do crazy rogue state antics while still being a buffer against South Korea.

Honestly I'd be cool with this outcome, realpolitik as it may be. The Kims are out-of-their-gourds insane

[GoTfan]

A missile launch is coming. I can feel it.

[Frodo]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

Oh, that is fascinating.

I wonder how we should react if North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at China, instead of Guam or the continental United States.  More importantly, how would China respond?  Would it flood troops into North Korea, and effectively annex it after annihilating the Kim dynasty root and branch?  

I think they would invade, but I can't see a scenario where annexation is a plausible long-term solution. With annexation + presumable liberalization of North Korea that comes with that, there's no way that North Koreans will want to live under Chinese rule when they people who are culturally more similar them, who they feel a sense of nationhood with are to the south. On the Chinese side, I find it hard to believe they'll feel enthusiastic to inherit the mess that North Korea is, especially when you how unwilling South Korea is. On a similar note, it's also an open question on how South Korea will feel about China invading territory they technically claim.

Considering that any invasion in the aftermath of an unprovoked nuclear attack with mass civilian casualties would likely result in the utter destruction of the North Korean military (and unavoidably high losses on the part of the invader), I don't think China would accept anything less than an indefinite occupation of North Korea to ensure it never poses a threat to them ever again. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would China possibly OK South Korea getting all of the North knowing SK would be heavily distracted for years to come integrating the area?

[TheSaint250]

Would China possibly OK South Korea getting all of the North knowing SK would be heavily distracted for years to come integrating the area?

I don't think the Chinese would mind too much since it's not the Cold War anymore but who knows

[The Mikado]

Would China possibly OK South Korea getting all of the North knowing SK would be heavily distracted for years to come integrating the area?

They don't like this idea because the ROK is an American ally and they're concerned that the second the DPRK merges with its southern neighbor, construction will go up on US bases all over the former North Korea and the American soldiers stationed in the South will just move north a few dozen miles into the old North to be even closer to China.

[HisGrace]

China would go to war to stop a unification of Korea from South to North. They continue to make that very clear and have obviously done it before. One of the many reason a first strike against the North is unacceptable.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

China would go to war to stop a unification of Korea from South to North. They continue to make that very clear and have obviously done it before. One of the many reason a first strike against the North is unacceptable.

Some in China wouldn't mind a Seoul led united Korea if there were no US troops north of the DMZ and they weren't going to be hostile to China.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

[pbrower2a]

I can imagine some Chinese demands for a re-unified Korea:

1. No military alliance with Japan, Taiwan, or the USA.
2. Favorable trade treatment with China.
3. Legalization of Communist Parties other than the Korean Workers' Party (which would be outlawed much like the Nazis in Germany and Austria).
4. NUCLEAR FREE Korea.

Korea can still have a democracy and free enterprise.

[Santander]

I can imagine some Chinese demands for a re-unified Korea:

1. No military alliance with Japan, Taiwan, or the USA.
2. Favorable trade treatment with China.
3. Legalization of Communist Parties other than the Korean Workers' Party (which would be outlawed much like the Nazis in Germany and Austria).
4. NUCLEAR FREE Korea.

Korea can still have a democracy and free enterprise.

The #1 rule of any negotiation is that your starting offer shouldn't get you laughed out of the room.

[swf541]

I can imagine some Chinese demands for a re-unified Korea:

1. No military alliance with Japan, Taiwan, or the USA.
2. Favorable trade treatment with China.
3. Legalization of Communist Parties other than the Korean Workers' Party (which would be outlawed much like the Nazis in Germany and Austria).
4. NUCLEAR FREE Korea.

Korea can still have a democracy and free enterprise.

The #1 rule of any negotiation is that your starting offer shouldn't get you laughed out of the room.

[The Mikado]

Top Chinese demands for a unified Korea would likely be withdrawal of all US forces from the Korean peninsula, a drastic reduction in the militarization of the peninsula (S. Korea has 700,000 in the military, N. Korea has 1 million in the military...a unified Korea could easily do with a military a third the size of South Korea's), and strict border controls to prevent people from illegally immigrating into China.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Nikki Haley kicking ass again in the Security Council

[pikachu]

North Korea could be facing a 'perfect storm'

[GoTfan]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

I think she'd be a much better fit for the job.

[Beet]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

I think she'd be a much better fit for the job.

Why? She's more neoconish. What would she do differently than Tillerson?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

I think she'd be a much better fit for the job.

Why? She's more neoconish. What would she do differently than Tillerson?

Because she's experienced in government and seems like a capable administrator.  Tillerson clearly is not and is letting the State Department go to hell, during a world situation when we really need it to be functioning well.  I think Haley would run the department much better. 

In terms of foreign policy?  Yeah, probably not much difference.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh god they launched another missile
http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-fires-unidentified-missile-11036058

[Phony Moderate]

And Japan has warned its citizens to take shelter.

[BudgieForce]

Im getting to the point of not giving a crap. Its apparent nothing will happen unless North Korea actually hits someone, and I dont think Kim Jung Un has the balls to do it.

[henster]

Why is Trump's red line not a bigger deal than Obama's? Does nobody remember the 'fire and fury' threat he made last month and he did nothing...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Why is Trump's red line not a bigger deal than Obama's? Does nobody remember the 'fire and fury' threat he made last month and he did nothing...

Because Trump has no reputation to lose. Everyone already knows he's a chaotic, idiotic blowhard and expects him to act accordingly. He's the global equivalent of the struggling toddler who gets praise for not soiling his pants today.