Will Arizona trend Democratic again in 2020?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Right. I don't waste my time with idiots. Ignored.

Idiot? I could write a book tallying all the stupid crap anti-Trump people were saying that got totally proven wrong, but they were so adamant that they were right and you were stupid if you didn't believe them.

I remember when everyone thought Donald Trump didn't stand a chance.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I would say definately. Still tilt R for Trump to win it in 2020, but it is fo shizzle in play and within reach for a good dem to win by a tiny plurality. Honestly, if the current trends continue, I would not be suprised if a good democratic nominee barely clinches the state 48-46.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Not bad model, but you are not giving enough points to indies and third parties. Small candidates are going to get more than 2% of the vote in AZ in 2020, trust me. Just Trump alone will siphon off at least 3-4 points for a libetarian from upset moderate Republicans, and essentially anyone besides Bernie who gets the D nomination will hand 0.5-1% to a radical left wing candidate.

[Devout Centrist]

Perhaps I'm wrong, but this state has all the makings of a new Virginia for Democrats, unlike Georgia.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Not bad model, but you are not giving enough points to indies and third parties. Small candidates are going to get more than 2% of the vote in AZ in 2020, trust me. Just Trump alone will siphon off at least 3-4 points for a libetarian from upset moderate Republicans, and essentially anyone besides Bernie who gets the D nomination will hand 0.5-1% to a radical left wing candidate.

The battle of 2020 will be fought over the 2016 third party voters (not "Trump Democrats" contrary to what people believe).

The election after an election with strong third party voting is always super bipartisan.

Por ejemplos:

- In 1980, third parties got around 9% of the vote, but in 1984 barely got 0.9%
- In 1992, third parties (Perot mainly) got 19% of the vote, but only 9% in 1996
- In 2000, third parties got 4% of the vote but in 2004 only got 1%

In 2016, third parties got 6% of the vote, and they'll probably only get 2% of the vote in 2020. This makes sense because the incumbent now has 4 years worth of a Presidential record - so now more people's minds are made up.

In Arizona, Romney got 53.7% of the vote in 2012. In 2016, McCain got 53.7% of the vote. Trump got 49.7% and Johnson got 4.2% - 49.7 + 4.2 = 53.9.

Now Trump won't get all Johnson voters and then there's demographics, so Trump won't get over 53% in 2020 but he should get 51-52%.

[cvparty]

In 2016, McCain got 53.7% of the vote. Trump got 49.7% and Johnson got 4.2% - 49.7 + 4.2 = 53.9.

Now Trump won't get all Johnson voters and then there's demographics, so Trump won't get over 53% in 2020 but he should get 51-52%.

umm...

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

In 2016, McCain got 53.7% of the vote. Trump got 49.7% and Johnson got 4.2% - 49.7 + 4.2 = 53.9.

Now Trump won't get all Johnson voters and then there's demographics, so Trump won't get over 53% in 2020 but he should get 51-52%.

umm...

Que?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

In 2016, McCain got 53.7% of the vote. Trump got 49.7% and Johnson got 4.2% - 49.7 + 4.2 = 53.9.

Now Trump won't get all Johnson voters and then there's demographics, so Trump won't get over 53% in 2020 but he should get 51-52%.

umm...

Que?

Trump could lose voters.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

In 2016, McCain got 53.7% of the vote. Trump got 49.7% and Johnson got 4.2% - 49.7 + 4.2 = 53.9.

Now Trump won't get all Johnson voters and then there's demographics, so Trump won't get over 53% in 2020 but he should get 51-52%.

umm...

Que?

Trump could lose voters.

Doubt it. He'll win in 2020 and except for Obama (who could risk it) everyone since FDR has increased their votes in their re-election win. In fact, I think Trump will be the first incumbent since Nixon to increase his margin in all 50 states + DC.

[cvparty]

Doubt it. He'll win in 2020 and except for Obama (who could risk it) everyone since FDR has increased their votes in their re-election win. In fact, I think Trump will be the first incumbent since Nixon to increase his margin in all 50 states + DC.

¿QUÉ?

Trump is an unstoppable juggernaut and he kind of underperformed in 2016, so he has nowhere to go but up.

Arizona will got 52-46ish in 2020, 49.5-49ish in 2024, then blue in 2028.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Doubt it. He'll win in 2020 and except for Obama (who could risk it) everyone since FDR has increased their votes in their re-election win. In fact, I think Trump will be the first incumbent since Nixon to increase his margin in all 50 states + DC.

¿QUÉ?

Trump is an unstoppable juggernaut and he kind of underperformed in 2016, so he has nowhere to go but up.

Arizona will got 52-46ish in 2020, 49.5-49ish in 2024, then blue in 2028.

Trump is an unstoppable juggernaut of epic proportions but he underperformed in 2016 - he has nowhere to go but up.

There are 53-54% potential R votes and I think Trump gets most of them in 2020.

[AN63093]

Perhaps I'm wrong, but this state has all the makings of a new Virginia for Democrats, unlike Georgia.

I'm curious as to why you think so (serious, not goading).

AZ and GA are both two of the fastest growing states in the US, AZ more so than GA.  But I think important to look at is where the growth is occurring.  AZ attracts a lot of people priced out of CA and retirees (and there is overlap in these groups, of course).  If you look at a distribution graph by age, AZ has a % spike in the 65-74 group; GA's graph is more level and also has higher spikes in the age groups 25-34 and 35-44.  AZ has the higher median age.

Both states have growth driven by primarily one MSA, but they have much different characters.  Not just age, as explained above, but Atlanta attracts a lot more millennials from the East Coast to work in private sector employment; there are 15 Fortune 500 companies in GA, most in the Atlanta MSA.  AZ only has 4, and none of which are nearly as big as a company like say, Coca Cola or Delta.  I would posit that AZ's economy is much more based in servicing its retiree and tourism sectors, than in its human capital, contrary to GA.

In this way, I think the Atlanta MSA has much more in common with the DC MSA, which is what has drove VA's growth, in large part.  Of course, there is nothing quite like the DC MSA, since it's heavily based in the cottage industry of government contracting and the associated bureaucracy.  But that being said, growth trends among well-off millennials seem similar in both Atlanta and DC, whereas I don't see what the "Fairfax County" of AZ would be.

Finally, note that in other demographics, while both GA and AZ have large minority populations, GA is over 30% black.  Likewise, VA is heavily Black and has majority Black areas like Richmond, and nearly so (Norfolk).  AZ is not very black, only 4%.  Although it is heavily Hispanic, almost 30%, and it also has the second highest illegal immigrant population in the US (second to NV).  For what it's worth, GA and VA are also both ancestrally southern D states, although I'm not sure this matters much any more.

I think both GA and AZ will trend D, but I just don't see the similarity between AZ/VA.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

How does Trump go from 46% of the electorate to 53-54% in the most polarized electorate since the civil war era? Giant economic boom? The reinstating of Jim Crow?

Third parties won't have as much of an impact as they did in 2016. We've seen this before - Reagan got 51% of the vote in 1980 due to Anderson, but in 1984 got 59% of the vote. Bush got 48% of the vote in 2000 but 51% in 2004.

Trump's dominance will be unpresidented.

[Lachi]

How does Trump go from 46% of the electorate to 53-54% in the most polarized electorate since the civil war era? Giant economic boom? The reinstating of Jim Crow?

Third parties won't have as much of an impact as they did in 2016. We've seen this before - Reagan got 51% of the vote in 1980 due to Anderson, but in 1984 got 59% of the vote. Bush got 48% of the vote in 2000 but 51% in 2004.

Trump's dominance will be unpresidented.

stop being an uber hack.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Reagan was a realigning President who took us away from FDR New Dealism while Trump is largely a continuation of the Reagan era, so I don't think that's a fitting comparison (plus there was a former Republican running Third Party in 1980 who took away from Reagan's vote total).

Bush is an interesting comparison; though a 3 point swing would only net Donald 49% of the electorate in 2020 (and that would be enough for him to win reelection given how his base of support is spread out) but where does he get 53-54% of the electorate from?

Trump is absolutely nothing like Reagan. Not even remotely similar. Well, except both being former Democrats/oldest President/former entertainers, but policy wise not even close to the same.

Bush Jr. was the "continuation of the Reagan era."

And Gary Johnson was a former Republican......

The 53-54% is referring to Arizona, not the entire electorate. I DO however believe Trump will get between 50-51% of the national popular vote.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Tax cuts; especially for the wealthy? Check.
Deregulation? Check.
Against ACA/socialized medicine? Check.
In favor of boosting military spending? Check.
Ran on the southern strategy? Check.
Ran on not cutting entitlements (Reagan changed his tune on this from 76'-80)? Check.
Pro life? Check.
Republicans? Check.

The only things that noticeably separate the two are immigration and free trade. How is he somehow a big repudiation of Reagan when even Mitch McConnell said Trump is now Jeb Bush and Romney said Trump was off to a great start two weeks into his administration?

Trump wants to cut taxes for the poor and middle class. Reagan focused exclusively on the rich. As I said, George W. Bush was the extension of this with the Bush tax cuts.

Reagan was Neoconish in terms of hawkishness. Trump is not.

Reagan gave amnesty - Trump is a hardliner on immigration. I mean this right here is a massive difference.

Abortion is a wedge issue.

Reagan was for gun control while Trump is not.

Reagan was for free trade and things like NAFTA; Trump is not (or, he's more in favor of making these deals help Americans).

Reagan loved to spend, spend, spend. Trump is not increasing the deficit.

Reagan and Trump only have a few things in common - both were the oldest Presidents inaugurated; both were former Democrats; both were former entertainers; both used Patriotism in their campaigns.

The former President Trump is most like is probably Andrew Jackson or JFK. Maybe Teddy Roosevelt.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tax cuts; especially for the wealthy? Check.
Deregulation? Check.
Against ACA/socialized medicine? Check.
In favor of boosting military spending? Check.
Ran on the southern strategy? Check.
Ran on not cutting entitlements (Reagan changed his tune on this from 76'-80)? Check.
Pro life? Check.
Republicans? Check.

The only things that noticeably separate the two are immigration and free trade. How is he somehow a big repudiation of Reagan when even Mitch McConnell said Trump is now Jeb Bush and Romney said Trump was off to a great start two weeks into his administration?

Trump wants to cut taxes for the poor and middle class. Reagan focused exclusively on the rich. As I said, George W. Bush was the extension of this with the Bush tax cuts.

Reagan was Neoconish in terms of hawkishness. Trump is not.

Reagan gave amnesty - Trump is a hardliner on immigration. I mean this right here is a massive difference.

Abortion is a wedge issue.

Reagan was for gun control while Trump is not.

Reagan was for free trade and things like NAFTA; Trump is not (or, he's more in favor of making these deals help Americans).

Reagan loved to spend, spend, spend. Trump is not increasing the deficit.

Reagan and Trump only have a few things in common - both were the oldest Presidents inaugurated; both were former Democrats; both were former entertainers; both used Patriotism in their campaigns.

The former President Trump is most like is probably Andrew Jackson or JFK. Maybe Teddy Roosevelt.

LOL.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I genuinely question if you have the mental capacity to dress yourself in the morning. This is easily one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this forum.

Why? Trump is NOTHING like Reagan. Reagan was the birth of neoconservatism and Reagan Republicans HATE Trump.

Reagan would have given amnesty to illegals already, which is a huge deal (his 1986 amnesty turned California permanently blue).

Also, Reagan was the governor of California while Trump had no political experience.

JFK and Trump are alike because they made the Establishment feel fear.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Lol, please keep going.

One of the reasons I voted for Trump was because he was nothing like Reagan. You can lol @ my JFK comparison, but if you think Trump is anything like Reagan you've been drinking the DNC kool-aid. For example, bringing up tax cuts for the wealthy - Trump supports cutting taxes for the poor/middle class even moreso.

Reagan opposed a ballot initiative that would have permitted the firing of teachers for being gay. Trump just banned transgenders. Another huge difference.

Reagan supported the Brady Bill - Trump will not support any gun control measures.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Lol, please keep going.

One of the reasons I voted for Trump was because he was nothing like Reagan. You can lol @ my JFK comparison, but if you think Trump is anything like Reagan you've been drinking the DNC kool-aid. For example, bringing up tax cuts for the wealthy - Trump supports cutting taxes for the poor/middle class even moreso.

Reagan opposed a ballot initiative that would have permitted the firing of teachers for being gay. Trump just banned transgenders. Another huge difference.

Reagan supported the Brady Bill - Trump will not support any gun control measures.

Have you read his tax plan?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Lol, please keep going.

One of the reasons I voted for Trump was because he was nothing like Reagan. You can lol @ my JFK comparison, but if you think Trump is anything like Reagan you've been drinking the DNC kool-aid. For example, bringing up tax cuts for the wealthy - Trump supports cutting taxes for the poor/middle class even moreso.

Reagan opposed a ballot initiative that would have permitted the firing of teachers for being gay. Trump just banned transgenders. Another huge difference.

Reagan supported the Brady Bill - Trump will not support any gun control measures.

Have you read his tax plan?

https://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/billionaire-freaks-about-rumored-trump-tax-plan-reagan-would-have-choked-on-rate-hikes-on-the-rich/

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Once again, he's NOTHING like Reagan except for a few funny details (former Democrat til 50s/former entertainer/oldest President/first name ends in onald, stuff like that).

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump is gonna raise taxes on the wealthy?

 

He may have to compromise with Republicans, so probably not, but he's definitely not as bad as Reagan or Bush.

Obama was the one who resigned the Bush tax cuts btw.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump is gonna raise taxes on the wealthy?

 

He may have to compromise with Republicans, so probably not, but he's definitely not as bad as Reagan or Bush.

Obama was the one who resigned the Bush tax cuts btw.

Oh ok I see. He's nothing like Reagan except when he's sucking the GOP off to get Reagan's agenda through. Gotcha.

If Trump were like Reagan, I wouldn't have voted for him.

Trump wants to cut taxes for all people - not just the rich.

Was Obama like Reagan?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Well then you shouldn't have voted for the guy set to cut taxes for the wealthy now should you?

As long as my taxes get cut I don't mind.

Obama cut taxes for the wealthy.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Well then you shouldn't have voted for the guy set to cut taxes for the wealthy now should you?

As long as my taxes get cut I don't mind.

You must be wealthy then.

What's up with this obsession with wealthy tax cuts on the left anyway? I mean, Obama cut taxes on the wealthy and not one peep mentioned about how "he is like Reagan." The Bush tax cuts had bipartisan support as well.

Democrats peddle the same crap every 4 years and people buy into, it's amazing.