Who is most likely to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?(Aug 2017)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nice to see Kamala doubling this month

[GoTfan]

Nice to see Kamala doubling this month

Long way behind Bernie and Warren

[Liberalrocks]

Well if Biden and Clinton opt out of running where do those voters go? I hardly see Warren and no way on Bernie getting them.

[Pyro]

Sanders if he runs. Not sure Warren can capture the same electorate.
The Dem establishment is dying to pick Harris or Booker.
The 2016 and 2008 prediction threads makes me doubt our estimates, though.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

With those close to Bernie saying he's probably gonna run, I don't see how he doesn't win.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Al Gore is the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2020.  He's subtly acting like a candidate, and he's the strongest candidate of the lot, all things considered.

Incidentally, what are all those Jim Justice 2020 folks thinking now?

[Panhandle Progressive]

Al Gore is the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2020.  He's subtly acting like a candidate, and he's the strongest candidate of the lot, all things considered.

I'd love to see this happen, but I don't believe it will. It would be awesome to vote for the same person again, 20 years after he won the popular vote and then see him elected president, over huckster Trump. Republicans would all blow their gaskets. Then he could make Hillary his running mate and set her up for 2028. And then I could vote once again for someone else who already won the popular vote. I wish I could see this dream coming true, but it seems implausible, although so did Trump. Who knows...

[Panhandle Progressive]

The sole vote for Newsom.

Newsom will become the next Governor of California about a year and a half from now. After being governor for roughly a year he will announce his run for the presidency. He will win over progressive voters that backed Sanders so strongly in 2016, largely due to his strong progressive support on key issues such as the environment, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization. He will win over enough of the remaining Dems to capture the party's nomination (aged 52), and will go on to win the presidency (aged 53) only two years after being elected Governor of California. Don't underestimate Newsom. He's the one to watch. Pay attention.

[ShadowRocket]

Still Warren, but I could easily see it winding up being someone like Brown, Merkley, or Franken. A strong case could also be made for Booker or Harris.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not sure yet. I think it'll be someone who is not really expected to.

The sole vote for Newsom.

Newsom will become the next Governor of California about a year and a half from now. After being governor for roughly a year he will announce his run for the presidency. He will win over progressive voters that backed Sanders so strongly in 2016, largely due to his strong progressive support on key issues such as the environment, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization. He will win over enough of the remaining Dems to capture the party's nomination (aged 52), and will go on to win the presidency (aged 53) only two years after being elected Governor of California. Don't underestimate Newsom. He's the one to watch. Pay attention.

Nah, won't happen. Newsom is favored be our next governor and he may run for president one day, but certainly not in 2020. That's too early. He'd likely support Harris if she enters the race.

[Liberalrocks]

Not sure yet. I think it'll be someone who is not really expected to.

The sole vote for Newsom.

Newsom will become the next Governor of California about a year and a half from now. After being governor for roughly a year he will announce his run for the presidency. He will win over progressive voters that backed Sanders so strongly in 2016, largely due to his strong progressive support on key issues such as the environment, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization. He will win over enough of the remaining Dems to capture the party's nomination (aged 52), and will go on to win the presidency (aged 53) only two years after being elected Governor of California. Don't underestimate Newsom. He's the one to watch. Pay attention.

Nah, won't happen. Newsom is favored be our next governor and he may run for president one day, but certainly not in 2020. That's too early. He'd likely support Harris if she enters the race.

Yeah I like both, but agree 2020 would be too soon for Newsom presuming he is elected Governor. I could see 2024 or 2028 and beyond. I think both have bright futures ahead.

[TheSaint250]

These candidates are my list, and them winning is based on the person above not running:

1. Bernie Sanders
2. Joe Biden
3. Elizabeth Warren
4. Cory Booker
5. Kamala Harris

[Kingpoleon]

I love Newsom but his time isn't 2020.

Isn't Newsom too economically moderate for you?

[GGover]

I don't know why people think 2020 will be the same as 2016.

Sanders is popular, has significant name recognition, a clear message, he's been building a relationship with the DNC chair, and the democratic establishment is moving in his direction. Bernie Sanders is the Hillary Clinton of 2020. I would be really surprised if 55% of primary voters voted for Clinton because they're opposed to Sanders and socialism, and that the majority of those voters couldn't flip to Sanders.

[Kingpoleon]

I love Newsom but his time isn't 2020.

Isn't Newsom too economically moderate for you?

He's an economic moderate only by virtue of his own description of himself. In reality he's basically right there on economic issues with the vast majority of California Democrats. The only reason single payer didn't go through at the state level is cuz we're required to balance our budget.

... I'm fairly certain that he wouldn't exactly push any such thing through. He and Brown seem to be building allies economically in the legislature. Nuñez, Brown, Newsom, and Westly are the main four I can think of, but there are quite a few Democrats in California who don't quite like single-payer and other such proposals.

[mcmikk]

I would love to see Sherrod Brown run and win above all else(I mean, it was Russ Feingold before he...you know...lost his Senate race.), but my money is on Harris. She's young, progressive, a woman, a minority, and I can see her becoming more friendly with the establishment and walking a dangerous line between establishment liberals and Berniecrats.

[Kingpoleon]

I love Newsom but his time isn't 2020.

Isn't Newsom too economically moderate for you?

He's an economic moderate only by virtue of his own description of himself. In reality he's basically right there on economic issues with the vast majority of California Democrats. The only reason single payer didn't go through at the state level is cuz we're required to balance our budget.

... I'm fairly certain that he wouldn't exactly push any such thing through. He and Brown seem to be building allies economically in the legislature. Nuñez, Brown, Newsom, and Westly are the main four I can think of, but there are quite a few Democrats in California who don't quite like single-payer and other such proposals.

Newsom supported single payer until it became obvious that they'd have to raise taxes dramatically to meet the budget shortfall so he correctly shifted his support to an all payer program instead. I support single payer at the federal level (where you can run a deficit and phase in the cost savings in the long run from negotiatiating for lower prices) but I think he made the right move at the state level.

You're an advocate of "pay cash now, save money later"? That might just be the definition of economic stupidity.

[GoTfan]

I love Newsom but his time isn't 2020.

Isn't Newsom too economically moderate for you?

He's an economic moderate only by virtue of his own description of himself. In reality he's basically right there on economic issues with the vast majority of California Democrats. The only reason single payer didn't go through at the state level is cuz we're required to balance our budget.

... I'm fairly certain that he wouldn't exactly push any such thing through. He and Brown seem to be building allies economically in the legislature. Nuñez, Brown, Newsom, and Westly are the main four I can think of, but there are quite a few Democrats in California who don't quite like single-payer and other such proposals.

Newsom supported single payer until it became obvious that they'd have to raise taxes dramatically to meet the budget shortfall so he correctly shifted his support to an all payer program instead. I support single payer at the federal level (where you can run a deficit and phase in the cost savings in the long run from negotiatiating for lower prices) but I think he made the right move at the state level.

You're an advocate of "pay cash now, save money later"? That might just be the definition of economic stupidity.

That's basic Keynesian economics. Run a deficit so you have cash on hand to pay for job, health and infrastructure programs in the short, which yield benefits in the long term.

[MillennialModerate]

I understand going for the candidate that most fits your views but in 2020 more than any other year we need an electable candidate, NEED. You know how politicians always say during every single presidential election that "this race means more than any other" well this one really is that big..... cause this President is literally the worst or second worst we've ever had. WE NEED SOMEONE ELECTABLE.

Bernie appears to a lot but not enough..

Warren does great work as a Senator but would not do well with the voters we need to flip from '16, in fact this is the one opponent that Trump would be favored against...

Honestly I think Cuomo, Biden or Tim Ryan are the best bets...

[Proudconnh]

I feel like a lot of progressives are going to look for someone who isn't Sanders or Warren, as Sanders backed out at the convention (remember #sellout) and Warren backed Clinton in the primaries. If Gabbard ran she could either take enough progressives to split the vote and hand the nomination to a more mainstream candidate.

Of course, in three years, I will look like an idiot as Sanders gives his acceptance speech to a bunch of cheering college kids.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren backed Clinton in the primaries.

No she didn't.  She was neutral in the primaries.  At least up until Clinton mathematically clinched the nomination, which didn't happen until every state had already voted.

[Proudconnh]

I seem to remember, for some reason, that she backed Clinton, but you are right. But even being on the fence as Sanders was crusading could hurt her if a person who endorsed Sanders in the primary runs. Sanders loyalist seem pretty unforgiving.