How many House seats will the GOP will pick up (gross, not net) in 2018?

[This is Eharding, guys]

If you answered any number other than zero, please explain which seats.

[Kamala]

Walz's

[This is Eharding, guys]

I see absolutely no reason for Walz's seat to flip in 2018. This is an Obama district, people, and it's not like it went for Trump by that much (it's the 288th most Democratic House district by 2016 two-party presidential vote). Interestingly, it ranks as the 206th most Democratic district both by my Composite Index and the 2012 two-party presidential vote.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268158.0

[NewYorkExpress]

Rick Nolan's seat seems like an obvious answer...even though Nolan is running, but that's the only one I can think of at this time.

[Coraxion]

Zero.

[Gass3268]

0-2, so I went with 1.

[MarkD]

I see absolutely no reason for Walz's seat to flip in 2018. This is an Obama district, people, and it's not like it went for Trump by that much (it's the 288th most Democratic House district by 2016 two-party presidential vote). Interestingly, it ranks as the 206th most Democratic district both by my Composite Index and the 2012 two-party presidential vote.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268158.0

But Obama won that district in 2012 by only 2% or so. It IS still a very competitive district, and the people who predict the closeness of races-- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato -- have been ranking MN-01 next year as a toss-up.

[Heisenberg]

Three. MN-01 and two others (not quite sure yet, but likely Trump seats).

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably MN-1, seems to be more of a Waltz district then a Democratic one. I think Republicans will pick up one other as well probably one of  NV-3,NJ-5, or NH-2.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably MN-1, seems to be more of a Waltz district then a Democratic one. I think Republicans will pick up one other as well probably one of  NV-3,NJ-5, or NH-2.

?

Oops I meant NH-1, Kuster should have no problem winning re-election. 

[Dr. Arch]

Probably MN-1, seems to be more of a Waltz district then a Democratic one. I think Republicans will pick up one other as well probably one of  NV-3,NJ-5, or NH-2.

?

Oops I meant NH-1, Kuster should have no problem winning re-election. 

You fell for the trick question. Both of those seats are safe D.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably MN-1, seems to be more of a Waltz district then a Democratic one. I think Republicans will pick up one other as well probably one of  NV-3,NJ-5, or NH-2.

?

Oops I meant NH-1, Kuster should have no problem winning re-election. 

You fell for the trick question. Both of those seats are safe D.

Hardly, Porter won only narrowly against a controversial incumbent. Trump also won this district as well. While I believe that Porter will probably win she is still probably the Second most vulnerable D incumbent (though this is probably in part because the GOP has a large majority anyway.)

[Nyvin]

MN-1 and NV-3 would be my top two.

[Xing]

MN-1 is the most likely, though NH-1 is a potential liability, provided Guinta isn't Shea-Porter's opponent again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP only has to hold down Dem gains to keep House. But, maybe not so in census year politics 2020.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Most likely to flip to GOP

MN-1
NH-1
NV-3
AZ-1
MN-8
IA-2
NJ-5
FL-7
NV-4
MN-7
PA-17
FL-13
NH-2
NY-18
CT-5
(Really pushing it towards the bottom but no others seem vulnerable at all

[Plate]

I think we'll lose seats, specifically the ones in districts with Democratic Cook PVIs

[LabourJersey]

Law of averages suggests the GOP picks up one or two seats even if they lose a majority, and MN-1 is the most obvious answer.

To those mentioning NJ-5: Gottheimer's not losing in 2018. He's very popular and there's no big-league opponents who are entering the race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem net 12 seats, enough to help them win to win outright in 2020.

Two or three special election losses pampered Dems hopes this year taking house

[progressive85]

I think 2006 is the only year when no Republican picked up a Democratic seat.  Even in waves, the losing party picks up at least one (Kansas 2 in 2008, Delaware in 2010).

[This is Eharding, guys]

BTW I believe that, after two GOP waves, the correct answer is zero. The most vulnerable D is Peterson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I aint worried about the house much. Only seats that I am concerned about are:

MN 1
MN 8
NV 3
CA 7
WI 3
And to a much lesser extent, NH 1st.

[Lachi]

I don't think anyone will, but if anyone was to fall, Peterson would certainly be the most obvious loss.

[Brittain33]

To those mentioning NJ-5: Gottheimer's not losing in 2018. He's very popular and there's no big-league opponents who are entering the race.

Given the solid R history of the district and Garrett's unique problems, I find it hard to have confidence in Gottheimer. I think this is a reasonable "top 5" option for a district to flip back, especially if GA-6 is any guide to go by.

[Tintrlvr]

To those mentioning NJ-5: Gottheimer's not losing in 2018. He's very popular and there's no big-league opponents who are entering the race.

Given the solid R history of the district and Garrett's unique problems, I find it hard to have confidence in Gottheimer. I think this is a reasonable "top 5" option for a district to flip back, especially if GA-6 is any guide to go by.

The difference between NJ-05 and GA-06 is that NJ-05 didn't swing much to Clinton at all and was only mid-single-digits for Romney whereas GA-06 voted for Romney by about 20 points.

I do agree it is probably one of the most vulnerable House seats the Democrats hold, though. Even in a wave where they take over the House, it would be a bit surprising if the Democrats didn't lose one or two seats in the opposite direction.