How many House seats will the GOP will pick up (gross, not net) in 2018?

[Indy Texas]

Rick Nolan's seat seems like an obvious answer...even though Nolan is running, but that's the only one I can think of at this time.

Rick Nolan seems like the Midwestern version of Mike McIntyre. He'll keep getting reelected by 1% margins until there is a good GOP cycle (perhaps 2022 with a Democratic POTUS).

[Indy Texas]

I don't think anyone will, but if anyone was to fall, Peterson would certainly be the most obvious loss.

Peterson has a strong personal brand in his district.

But if he retired, it would be the first on the list of GOP pickups and they would have to really screw up not to be able to win it as an open seat.

[LabourJersey]

To those mentioning NJ-5: Gottheimer's not losing in 2018. He's very popular and there's no big-league opponents who are entering the race.

Given the solid R history of the district and Garrett's unique problems, I find it hard to have confidence in Gottheimer. I think this is a reasonable "top 5" option for a district to flip back, especially if GA-6 is any guide to go by.

The difference between NJ-05 and GA-06 is that NJ-05 didn't swing much to Clinton at all and was only mid-single-digits for Romney whereas GA-06 voted for Romney by about 20 points.

I do agree it is probably one of the most vulnerable House seats the Democrats hold, though. Even in a wave where they take over the House, it would be a bit surprising if the Democrats didn't lose one or two seats in the opposite direction.

Gottheimer has been in the NJ news a lot, and works very hard to present the image of "Moderate Hero," which actually works in the Bergen county suburbs he represents. Also, he has yet to draw a challenger, and the Bergen county Republicans are facing serious internal strife and lack of funds at the moment. There's a Freeholder from Warren or Sussex County who's favored to win the primary, but each of those counties are too small a voter base to counteract Gottheimer's supporters in Bergen.

I'd concede that he is not a lock for re-election (I sounded too confident in that last post), but the NJ Republican Party does not have the resources they used to have in Bergen to defeat him easily.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't have to win House this year, so that burden is off of them now.

But, they want to make gains to they can have the trifecta in 2020, defeat of Trump is inevitable, npw

[Suburbia]

Law of averages suggests the GOP picks up one or two seats even if they lose a majority, and MN-1 is the most obvious answer.

To those mentioning NJ-5: Gottheimer's not losing in 2018. He's very popular and there's no big-league opponents who are entering the race.

The Trump Russia scandal could motivate Lou Dobbs to enter politics and could give Gottheimer a run. Some parts of NJ-05 is still conservative-leaning, and Dobbs could give a coattail effect to the 2018 GOP Senate candidate against Menendez.

[Suburbia]

Overall, the House GOP 2018 will pick up 6 seats.

[Lord Admirale]

Law of averages suggests the GOP picks up one or two seats even if they lose a majority, and MN-1 is the most obvious answer.

To those mentioning NJ-5: Gottheimer's not losing in 2018. He's very popular and there's no big-league opponents who are entering the race.

The Trump Russia scandal could motivate Lou Dobbs to enter politics and could give Gottheimer a run. Some parts of NJ-05 is still conservative-leaning, and Dobbs could give a coattail effect to the 2018 GOP Senate candidate against Menendez.

But Gottheimer is a much better fit for the district than Dobbs. Garrett was kicked out because he proved himself to be too conservative and intolerant. Not to mention, Gottheimer is closer to what Bergen County (or even the state as a whole) Republicans were 20-30 years ago than the national Democratic Party.