AZ-PPP (D): Flake getting crushed by Generic Democrat

[Pollster]

Against a named candidate I would predict Flake would be down 4-6 points in this poll. The approval numbers probably aren't accurate but if they are (and are being replicated in internals for other orgs/candidates/etc) Flake could well lose the primary.

Basically this. In no way would he be down 16 to Sinema, but probably more like 5 or so. AKA--he's doing worse than McCaskill. But MUH Trump states and MUH Democratic obstructionism

I could certainly see the national environment shaping up in a way that produces a McCaskill reelection happening in conjunction with a Flake defeat, though I believe McCaskill's issue is increasing Dem turnout whereas Flake's is managing his image.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Flake barely defeated a novice democrat politician in 2012, a massive Obama year. His chances of winning in a year with a president that has a 33% approval rating are very slim.

Still a hispanic military dude he ran against though, very appealing. Arizona is a reddish state, and Flake has that moderate tone, distanced himself from the drumpft quite a bit, and hence will do better in Maricopa county, and is running against a bunch of nobodies in the dem bench so far. Recruit Stanton, Sinema, or Kelly, and then we can talk. Otherwise, Lean R.

No one announced against McCaskill either when you were proclaiming her dead... and yes, Flake's numbers are worse than McCaskill's.  And nothing suggests that Flake is at all popular with moderates. Look at any approval rating poll of Flake since he became senator. He's always been unpopular, mostly because he has zero crossover appeal and is a libertarian purist in a state where that's not popular among the Republican base. And him taking an anti-Trump stance has only further endangered his position.

That was what my issue with your 53-42 statement was. That'd be insane, and would indicate he is popular since Generic (D/R) always does better than actual opponents. Flake is nowhere near that position of strength.

Friendly reminder to everyone also: just because a Presidential candidate won a state or district in 2016 doesn't mean that will carry over in 2018. Actually, far from the case

Yeah, totally called her DOA...

Many republicans need to stop calling this DOA, it is far from it, and on the other side, many democrats need to wake up and realize that this is not a shoo in for McCaskill either.

It is starting to look that way, but no DOA yet. Dems have no choice but to fight back, this is a seat worth defending. To just sit back and look dumbfounded in this race is unacceptable, it has to be defended, even if it is an R pickup in the end, this is a seat worth defending.
[/quote]

Next lie please. Flake's numbers are discouraging, and they are about on par with what I expect from McCaskill, a weaker holdout from both. Had a much better showing in Maricopa county than Trump, he also pulled ahead by a little from Bush and McCain in 2000, 2004, and 2008 CD's. Was also against a decent candidate, now he is facing nobodies. As I said, we can talk if one of the big three enters, till then, Lean R. 10 years from now, Arizona R's will be needing crossover to win statewide, for now, the GOP just has to keep their base united. A dem must have crossover appeal if they are to win statewide in Arizona now, not the other way around. The Krazen's and Maga2020's of the state will still unite behind Flake, but he could have trouble with turnout. That one was somewhat legit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump's approvals were anywhere close to 50, Dems will be in serious trouble, where GOP would have picked up 5-7 seats. Dems may net lose a seat, and that would be a neutral year for them.

[Young Conservative]

1. This wouldn't happen because things are raw with the base right now, but they would come home to him.
2. "Generic democrat" doesn't exist and polling it is silly.

[Maxwell]

11. This wouldn't happen because things are raw with the base right now, but they would come home to him.
2. "Generic democrat" doesn't exist and polling it is silly.

Would they though? The base refusing to come home is one of the things that sunk Joe Heck's Senate campaign. They certainly wouldn't for someone whose criticism of President Trump was far more outspoken.

[Pericles]

oh sh** oh sh** its gettin real

I feel a Flake retirement is not out of the cards.

uhhh time to start polling in Texas.

Yes. Why else would he have attacked Trump in such strong terms in his book?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Can't wait for Senator Deedra Abboud ! That would drive MAGA nuts INSANE especially Amy Mek on twitter.

[Mr. Smith]

oh sh** oh sh** its gettin real

I feel a Flake retirement is not out of the cards.

uhhh time to start polling in Texas.

Yes. Why else would he have attacked Trump in such strong terms in his book?

I don't know. He's ramped up his fundraising for another run, and he seems well aware that the book could sink his reelection, but he noted, "if I do it after my reelection, then what courage is that?" That to me indicates he'll run and doesn't give a  if he goes down in flames, in either the primary or general.

Could be using that money to pull a Ted Kennedy in 2020.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can't wait for Senator Deedra Abboud ! That would drive MAGA nuts INSANE especially Amy Mek on twitter.

Lol, it's cute that you think she even stands a chance in either the primary or general election. She won't win the primaries, and even if she did, Arizona on the statewide level does not elect people like her...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Flake is no Heller, and in a neutral year, where GOP, will barely hang onto Senate until 2020, Flake can win. We've seen flawed AZ polling in 2016 with McCain. GOP keeps this seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Flake is no Heller, and in a neutral year, where GOP, will barely hang onto Senate until 2020, Flake can win. We've seen flawed AZ polling in 2016 with McCain. GOP keeps this seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, I was referring to the fact, that I do believe Kelly Ward will be the nxt Senator from AZ, due to the fact, a Democrat won't be elected to AZ Senate until 2022, when McCain is finish and I hope its Mark Kelly. 

[Virginiá]

Yes, I was referring to the fact, that I do believe Kelly Ward will be the nxt Senator from AZ, due to the fact, a Democrat won't be elected to AZ Senate until 2022, when McCain is finish and I hope its Mark Kelly.  

I hate to nitpick here, but what you said isn't actually a fact. It's just a prediction, and you didn't state why you thought no Democrat would hold an AZ Senate seat until at least 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is a prediction and its a bold one, AZ polling was eracted in 2016 and said Kirkpatrick was competitive with McCain and she wasn't.

Kelly Ward will win the primary against Flake, but she isn't Josh Mandel.  And neither is Kid Rock, both are upset predictions, but they are good candidates.

[Heisenberg]

It is a prediction and its a bold one, AZ polling was eracted in 2016 and said Kirkpatrick was competitive with McCain and she wasn't.

Kelly Ward will win the primary against Flake, but she isn't Josh Mandel.  And neither is Kid Rock, both are upset predictions, but they are good candidates.

Kelli award is just as bad as Mandel. She is literally a conspiracist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where's the Democratic bench? Kirkpatrick was bad as well. 

[Heisenberg]

Where's the Democratic bench? Kirkpatrick was bad as well. 

I've said it several times now: As a Republican, Greg Stanton is the one who scares me the most. I also think Democrats will win at least one row office next year (SiS and Superintendent are possibilities), so it will grow. If both seats open, not sure who else runs. I think Sinema would, but she has serious flaws and baggage.

[Virginiá]

It is a prediction and its a bold one, AZ polling was eracted in 2016 and said Kirkpatrick was competitive with McCain and she wasn't.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/az/arizona_senate_mccain_vs_kirkpatrick-5455.html

The RCP average aligned pretty nicely with the actual result. It wasn't far off. PPP didn't have any polls close to the election of that race, so it's not fair to say they were dead wrong. For all you know, that really was the state of the race in the early summer. In fact, with the constant scandal and ups and downs of the top of the ticket, it's not surprising to see downballot choices fluctuate too.

I still don't understand why you have such strong views about AZ like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am a donkey and will stay that way. But, until things change on the FBI side, with the Mueller investigation, Dems won't take Congress in 2018.  AZ is a libertarian, more like FL, OH and Iowa states, but its more like TX when it comes to immigration reform. Secure the border first and citizenship status later which Ward and Flake have clear positions on.

Unlike Heller, who changes positions on ACA all the time, support McConnell or not

[Sir Mohamed]

I want to believe it, but AZ is a toss-up at best for Dems. Also: A poll fifteen months before the election against "generic Democrat" is pretty meaningless.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I want to believe it, but AZ is a toss-up at best for Dems. Also: A poll fifteen months before the election against "generic Democrat" is pretty meaningless.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

This poll seems to overestimate republican partisan registration in AZ. Right now,  this is a toss-up at worst.

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

I see Flake's polling in the primary isn't great shakes, either.

Flake's a fairly impressive person, but he's made lots of mistakes with the base:

1.  He conspicuously refused to endorse Trump.

2.  He never let up in his criticism of Trump.

3.  He suggested that the GOP Senate take a second look at Merrick Garland to avoid a Hillary-selected SCOTUS appointee.

4.  He voted against Obamacare repeal.

For Flake to win the primary, he'd have to run as "the adult" in a Ben Sasse mode, and have the support of folks like Sasse, plus the support of folks like McCain and Kasich.  If he can survive the primary, he can prevail in the election; he'll be seen as a reasonable Republican by Democrats and Independents, and Republicans will come home to vote for him because they don't want to lose the Senate. 

I also think Heller will hang on, for many of the same reasons I see Flake prevailing.