AL-SEN 2017 predictions?

[MT Treasurer]

This election will be held on December 12, 2017, to choose Senator Jeff Sessions' successor who will complete the Senate term through January 2021.

GOP primary:

38% Moore
30% Strange
23% Brooks
9% Others

GOP runoff:

55% Moore
45% Strange

DEM runoff:

56% Jones
44% Kennedy

General election:

51% Doug Jones (D) 🗸
45% Roy Moore (R)
4% Write-in

[Heisenberg]

Likely R. I agree that Brooks is the least unelectable candidate, and Strange is the worst. Sucks that McConnell is wasting millions to prop up Strange, it could be used elsewhere, and, incidentally, Strange is the weakest. I do agree that it will be a Moore vs. Strange runoff, and I think that the runoff will come down to the wire. I would say Strange probably has the edge right now, but Moore can definitely catch up.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. I agree that Brooks is the least unelectable candidate, and Strange is the worst. Sucks that McConnell is wasting millions to prop up Strange, it could be used elsewhere, and, incidentally, Strange is the weakest. I do agree that it will be a Moore vs. Strange runoff, and I think that the runoff will come down to the wire. I would say Strange probably has the edge right now, but Moore can definitely catch up.

Yeah, her decision to hold this election in 2017 wasn't a smart political move by Ivey. Who do you think wins the Democratic primary?

[Heisenberg]

Who do you think wins the Democratic primary?

I'll need to look more into it, but I think it will be either Kennedy or Jones, I agree they seem to be the strongest candidates.

[Kamala]

He's no Jack Kennedy, but he's no Alvin Greene either.

[BuckeyeNut]

Optimistically only Likely R.

Kennedy is literally a nobody with a good name, and that's really not enough to win a general, even if it can pull him through a primary. Really hope Jones wins the primary. Very good candidate on paper who, maybe a decade ago, could have won a gubernatorial election.

But I've got a thing for US Attorneys running for office.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Safe D, Zombie Bobby's got this on lock.

[Alabama_Indy10]

At this point, Robert Kennedy will probably win the Dem primary on his name alone. Nothing is known about him otherwise.
And I have a very hard time believing Roy Moore can win a runoff. There is a strong love/hate divide about Moore in the state. He has die hard supporters and die hard opponents. If its a Strange vs. Moore runoff, I say at least Lean Strange.

[Alabama_Indy10]

At this point, Robert Kennedy will probably win the Dem primary on his name alone. Nothing is known about him otherwise.
And I have a very hard time believing Roy Moore can win a runoff. There is a strong love/hate divide about Moore in the state. He has die hard supporters and die hard opponents. If its a Strange vs. Moore runoff, I say at least Lean Strange.

[PragmaticPopulist]

At this point, Robert Kennedy will probably win the Dem primary on his name alone. Nothing is known about him otherwise.
And I have a very hard time believing Roy Moore can win a runoff. There is a strong love/hate divide about Moore in the state. He has die hard supporters and die hard opponents. If its a Strange vs. Moore runoff, I say at least Lean Strange.

I'm assuming the double post was a mistake.

I'm not gonna underestimate Roy Moore. He managed to win the nomination for Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. And he could pull off an upset in the runoff if polling is close. That being said, I think Strange is a slight favorite as of now. If Moore is the nominee though, this could easily become Likely R. Moore only won by 3.5% in 2012, and that was before he got suspended the second time.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Likely R. The sheer rightward nature of Alabama's partisan identity should make it a Republican seat by default, but this could quickly become a brutal clusterf**k for Republicans in a Moore/Strange runoff. The potential for significant divisiveness within the GOP electorate could make for the best opportunity Democrats will have for awhile to notch an upset win here.

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe R, though it could get uncomfortably close for Republicans if Moore or Strange wins the runoff.

[This is Eharding, guys]

Safe R, 35% Strange, 32% Moore, 30% Brooks. Strange wins the runoff by six points and the general election by 10.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R, Strange wins after a runoff with Moore, and faces down either Kennedy or Jones, and wins 56-40 vs Kennedy, and 55-43 vs Jones.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

GOP primary:

31% Moore
35%  Strange
23% Brooks
11% Others

GOP runoff:

44% Moore
56% Strange

DEM runoff:

43% Kennedy
57% Doug Jones

-Roy Moore has a high floor but is fairly polarizing and will have difficulty getting to 50%
- I think the recent news coverage on the Alabama Dem primary probably helps Jones. This helps increase Jones name rec., as well as clear up any ambiguity about Kennedy's relation to JFK.

[windjammer]

Kennedy is going to be the first black senator!!!!

[Kamala]

If you would've told someone from 1968 that in 50 years the two states represented by Kennedys would be Louisiana and Alabama...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kennedy is going to be the first black senator!!!!

There have already been black senators from around the country, now if you are talking about Alabama, this would be the first, if he won, and regardless of any primary outcome, this is Safe R, and best case scenario for dems with Moore vs Jones, Likely R.

[Mike Thick]

Moore is going to win, because this is 2017.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

1st Round:
Moore: 38%
Strange: 28%
Brooks: 27%
Others: 5%

Runoff:
Moore: 51%
Strange: 49%

Kennedy: 58%
Jones: 42%

General:
Moore: 58%
Kennedy: 42%

Other candidates:

Strange: 62%
Kennedy: 38%

Brooks: 60%
Kennedy: 40%

Jones probably does two points worse than Kennedy across the board.  Safe R.

[Lord Admirale]

Safe to Likely R, I chose safe because the Democratic Party in Alabama is dead outside of the black belt.

If Roy Moore was facing someone centrist-to-conservative like Walt Maddox or even Parker Griffith, then I could see it being competitive.

[McGovernForPrez]

It's a special election during a Trump midterm so I can't call it Safe R. I don't think it's impossible for us to see a Scott Brown type of situation happen here. Dems at least have a solid floor from the black belt so depending on turnout I sdd a Dem win within the realms of possibility. Still likely R because it's still Alabama.

[The Other Castro]

It is kind of funny that Democrats look like they're going to nominate someone they literally know nothing about except his name (Robert Kennedy Jr.) over a former U.S. Attorney. Predicting the Dem results is probably a crapshoot, but I'll put something down just for kicks. I'll do general election predictions later when we have nominees.


GOP primary:
Moore - 36%
Strange - 31%
Brooks - 22%
Others - 11%

GOP runoff:
Strange - 51%
Moore - 49%

Democratic primary:
Kennedy - 52%
Jones - 31%
Others - 17%

[Alabama_Indy10]

It's a special election during a Trump midterm so I can't call it Safe R. I don't think it's impossible for us to see a Scott Brown type of situation happen here. Dems at least have a solid floor from the black belt so depending on turnout I sdd a Dem win within the realms of possibility. Still likely R because it's still Alabama.

I do.

[windjammer]

Safe rep