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Author Topic: Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?  (Read 874 times)
slightlyburnttoast
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E: -5.42, S: -5.43

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« on: August 06, 2017, 03:08:41 pm »
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Closest races: NH, MD, ME, FL, AK, VT
Dem. pickups: MI, ME, FL, NM, IL
Rep. pickups: AK

Post-2018 map of governorships:



NH, AK, and FL could really go either way though.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 03:41:54 pm by slightlyburnttoast »Logged

2018 MI Gov. Race: Gretchen Whitmer (D)
2018 MI Sen. Race: Debbie Stabenow (D, inc.)
Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2017, 03:45:40 pm »
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Dems will win KS or WI
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Progressive Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2017, 05:14:49 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 05:16:42 pm by Progressive Democrat »Logged
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2017, 06:28:33 pm »
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I think it's incredible that in the most Democratic state in the nation, in a Mid-Term that by all accounts will be heavily Democratic .... a Republican Governor is virtually assured of reelection
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2017, 04:28:25 am »
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My prediction: FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, NH, NM and WI flips

D+8
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Not_Madigan
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2017, 09:35:21 am »
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I'm making one prediction. 

IL will be Tilt R once Pritzker wins the nom.
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Endorsements:
2017:

German Federal Election:  FDP,AFD,CDU
NJ-Gov:  Kim Guadagno (R)
VA-Gov:  Ed Gillespie (R)

2018:
IL-Gov:  Bruce Rauner (R)
MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker (R)
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan (R)
VT-Gov:  Phil Scott (R)
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel (R)
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine (R)
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam (R)
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker (R)
MO-Sen:  Josh Hawley (R)
NV-Sen:  Dean Heller (R)
NY-23:  Ch
Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2017, 09:42:02 am »
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No, it won't, this race won't be a run away race, but even Pritzker can beat Rauner by 5, in a Trump down year.
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Blue Dog Moderate
Admiral President
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2017, 07:11:46 pm »
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2017:
New Jersey: Likely Democratic Pickup
Virginia: Lean Democratic Hold

2018:



Maine will be Republican if Susan Collins runs. Nevada, Florida, Kansas, and Connecticut are a bit iffy in my mind.
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First Degree Burns
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2017, 06:34:21 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2017, 06:34:49 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god

Please let Rauner survive PLEASE!
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Endorsements:
2017:

German Federal Election:  FDP,AFD,CDU
NJ-Gov:  Kim Guadagno (R)
VA-Gov:  Ed Gillespie (R)

2018:
IL-Gov:  Bruce Rauner (R)
MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker (R)
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan (R)
VT-Gov:  Phil Scott (R)
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel (R)
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine (R)
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam (R)
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker (R)
MO-Sen:  Josh Hawley (R)
NV-Sen:  Dean Heller (R)
NY-23:  Ch
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1184AZ
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2017, 06:37:49 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html
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The Saint
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2017, 06:39:44 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html
I think he meant someone like Malloy
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Moderate Republican

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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2017, 06:44:08 pm »
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Xavier Inglemoor Curry
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2017, 07:20:32 pm »
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With no toss-ups, Walker wins in AK, Democrats win KS, MI, NV, and NH, Republicans win CT, FL, and MD. D+7.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2017, 07:24:59 pm »
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As of 8/8/17





Note on IL:  I have 3 ratings for IL, the one in the picture is for Kennedy.

Pritzker:  Tilt R
Kennedy:  Tossup
ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT:  Lean D
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Endorsements:
2017:

German Federal Election:  FDP,AFD,CDU
NJ-Gov:  Kim Guadagno (R)
VA-Gov:  Ed Gillespie (R)

2018:
IL-Gov:  Bruce Rauner (R)
MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker (R)
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan (R)
VT-Gov:  Phil Scott (R)
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel (R)
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine (R)
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam (R)
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker (R)
MO-Sen:  Josh Hawley (R)
NV-Sen:  Dean Heller (R)
NY-23:  Ch
Libertarian-Leaning Progressive
canis
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E: -5.74, S: -8.61

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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2017, 07:35:21 pm »
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D+7
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 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2017, 11:58:41 pm »
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D+7

According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.
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Castro
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2017, 08:49:13 pm »
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No tossup map, lighter shades = pickups:



2017: D+1 (NJ)
2018: D+6 (NM, IL, ME, MI, FL, NV)
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ReaganClinton20XX (Fed-CT)
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E: -2.45, S: -5.57

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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2017, 09:55:30 am »
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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.
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Twitter (Personal): twitter.com/marioluigifun
Twitter (Atlasia): twitter.com/ReaganClintonXX
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2017, 11:33:47 am »
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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
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Endorsements:
2017:

German Federal Election:  FDP,AFD,CDU
NJ-Gov:  Kim Guadagno (R)
VA-Gov:  Ed Gillespie (R)

2018:
IL-Gov:  Bruce Rauner (R)
MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker (R)
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan (R)
VT-Gov:  Phil Scott (R)
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel (R)
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine (R)
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam (R)
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker (R)
MO-Sen:  Josh Hawley (R)
NV-Sen:  Dean Heller (R)
NY-23:  Ch
Libertarian-Leaning Progressive
canis
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E: -5.74, S: -8.61

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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2017, 12:00:00 pm »
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D+7

According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.
Walker's approval rating have recovered a bit but hes definitely not safe so thats why I have it only has likely republican
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 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2017, 05:37:44 pm »
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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
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Pre-third way-style Democrat with a Progressive Streak
Endorsements
Senate
  • AZ - Kyrsten Sinema
  • FL - Bill Nelson
  • NV - Jacky Rosen
  • OH - Sherrod Brown
  • WI - Tammy Baldwin
Governor
  • FL - Gwen Graham
  • GA - Stacey Evans
  • NJ - Phil Murphy
  • NM - Michelle Lujan Grisham
  • VA - Ralph Northam
  • WI - Kathleen Vinehout
Libertarian-Leaning Progressive
canis
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Political Matrix
E: -5.74, S: -8.61

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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2017, 08:32:52 pm »
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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
Bill or Scott Walker?
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 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2017, 11:08:55 pm »
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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
Bill or Scott Walker?
Bill. I should have clarified that.
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Pre-third way-style Democrat with a Progressive Streak
Endorsements
Senate
  • AZ - Kyrsten Sinema
  • FL - Bill Nelson
  • NV - Jacky Rosen
  • OH - Sherrod Brown
  • WI - Tammy Baldwin
Governor
  • FL - Gwen Graham
  • GA - Stacey Evans
  • NJ - Phil Murphy
  • NM - Michelle Lujan Grisham
  • VA - Ralph Northam
  • WI - Kathleen Vinehout
ReaganClinton20XX (Fed-CT)
ReaganClinton20XX
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E: -2.45, S: -5.57

P P

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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2017, 04:31:13 pm »
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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
In hindsight, I would've put it as a tossup, but Kennedy doesn't instill much confidence within the Democratic party, and there aren't many other Democratic candidates at the moment, which is why I gave it the slight R tilt.
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Center-Left Federalist running for Lincoln Assembly.



Twitter (Personal): twitter.com/marioluigifun
Twitter (Atlasia): twitter.com/ReaganClintonXX
YouTube: https://goo.gl/tft5t
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