What would happen if we (conventionally) bombed NK?

[Higgins]

Let's say we did a surprise attack on the capital city along with the main military/industrial centers, their nuclear facilities, bombed them all to hell...What would happen?

[AN63093]

Don't we already have a pinned thread going on this?  Anyway, as I discussed in that thread (go there for my much longer analysis of the situation):

If a war breaks out, then it's over for the regime, it's just a matter of how long and how many casualties.  There's no doubt that the casualties would be significant, quite a bit more than the US Armed Forces is used to seeing since at least Vietnam, or even the prior Korean War.  But the US would certainly prevail.  I can't remember the source precisely, but while NK has a large number of forces, artillery pieces, and so on, a big problem for them is logistics; talking about supply, food, fuel, ammo, etc.  Their logistics capability is very unsophisticated compared to either the US or South Korea, and I recall reading that current estimates place NK's ability to sustain full operations for a shockingly low period of time.  I can't remember the exact amount, but it was like days or something like that.  NK just simply can't sustain total war for more than a short period before it basically has to revert to guerrilla tactics.

[Coraxion]

It seems to me that any North Korea "solution" means millions of deaths, including this one.

[Higgins]

Don't we already have a pinned thread going on this?  Anyway, as I discussed in that thread (go there for my much longer analysis of the situation):

If a war breaks out, then it's over for the regime, it's just a matter of how long and how many casualties.  There's no doubt that the casualties would be significant, quite a bit more than the US Armed Forces is used to seeing since at least Vietnam, or even the prior Korean War.  But the US would certainly prevail.  I can't remember the source precisely, but while NK has a large number of forces, artillery pieces, and so on, a big problem for them is logistics; talking about supply, food, fuel, ammo, etc.  Their logistics capability is very unsophisticated compared to either the US or South Korea, and I recall reading that current estimates place NK's ability to sustain full operations for a shockingly low period of time.  I can't remember the exact amount, but it was like days or something like that.  NK just simply can't sustain total war for more than a short period before it basically has to revert to guerrilla tactics.

Why do we need ground troops when we could just continuously bomb enemy lines until the regime cracks? We could just use drones/conventional bombers to bomb every major production/military zone, and bomb the capital. NK would be crippled in weeks.

[AN63093]

Because, as the theory goes, it would not be able to be contained once it started, and would lead to a cycle of attack and counter-attack that, when further exacerbated by miscalculation, would eventually lead to an all-out war.

There was a great article in the Atlantic about this a little while ago, "How to Deal With North Korea" that discusses all the military options, including the limited strike route.  It's a long-read, so you'll have to set aside some time for it, but it's well worth it (incidentally, the Atlantic is one of the few sources out there that doesn't seem as prone to sensationalism and partisan tomfoolery, which is why I like it).

The section on limited strikes are discussed in part 2, "Turning the screws."  The article also discusses a "decapitation" strike against Kim, and what the consequences of that would be.

[JA]

Sure, why not speculate about how to pre-emptively bomb another country, level its infrastructure, and massacre countless people. Just another day on Atlas...

[SoLongAtlas]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

[Higgins]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

I think we should lance the boil before the infection gets any worse. The U.S. shouldn't be afraid to do whatever it takes. Conventional bombs. Have some agents infiltrate NK military establishments and knock out key personnel with chemical weapons. Prior to doing all this, rapidly withdraw all US and SK personnel from border/DMZ zone. The first strike should be at all nuclear sites in NK at once, to ensure they can't launch anything at Seoul.

Also, work with China to ensure they have NK's northern borders lined with mines (this planting of such can occur months ahead of the actual assault)

[ProudModerate2]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

I think we should lance the boil before the infection gets any worse. The U.S. shouldn't be afraid to do whatever it takes. Conventional bombs. Have some agents infiltrate NK military establishments and knock out key personnel with chemical weapons. Prior to doing all this, rapidly withdraw all US and SK personnel from border/DMZ zone. The first strike should be at all nuclear sites in NK at once, to ensure they can't launch anything at Seoul.

Also, work with China to ensure they have NK's northern borders lined with mines (this planting of such can occur months ahead of the actual assault)

I still wonder if China would ally themselves with North Korea.
Just like the first Korean War, the Chinese may not join with NK at first, but as war escalates and they ponder this outcome and that outcome, they may decide to defend NK.
If that happens, then China and the US nuke each other (both losers), and Russia wins.

[The Arizonan]

Wouldn't it be better if Kim Jong-Un got hit by a meteor or something rather than risk the lives of millions of troops?

If we have to send personnel, then we should send a covert ops team.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

You're forgetting the inevitable campaign of cyber-sabotage, a handful of conventional terrorist attacks and assassination attempts on whatever or whoever the North Koreans consider good targets, plus terror and conventional strikes with chemicals and bioweapons,  and bunch of nuclear bombs smuggled to their targets. (They probably have more bombs than they have ballistic missiles for.) Maybe a couple dirty bombs somewhere if they've got surplus nuclear material. Plus the accidental releases of all the above as we and whoever else is joining in bomb the North Koreans back to the stone age, again.

Much better than talking to them. Who knows what that could lead to.

[JA]

It seems to me that any North Korea "solution" means millions of deaths, including this one.

Yeah, but it's mostly just Koreans dying horrifically from a second American invasion, so who cares?

[AN63093]

I still wonder if China would ally themselves with North Korea.
Just like the first Korean War, the Chinese may not join with NK at first, but as war escalates and they ponder this outcome and that outcome, they may decide to defend NK.
If that happens, then China and the US nuke each other (both losers), and Russia wins.

I do think China would probably get involved in some fashion, but I think the risk of an actual nuclear exchange between the US/China is pretty low.

Beet and I have a back-and-forth going on this in the NK mega thread; I'll cut/paste the relevant portions so you don't have to suffer reading my long posts.

I think the risk of a greater strategic nuclear exchange with China is quite low in all scenarios, and comments suggesting such are a little over dramatic.  I don't think the conditions are quite right for sparking a great powder keg in the WW1 sense.. I've already typed long enough in this thread, so I won't go on that tangent, but suffice to say, the conditions are vastly different.  More likely, I think, is that China would get involved on the side of the US, so they could control as much of the North as possible and guarantee a seat at the table when hostilities die down, preferably with an eye towards installing a new client state in the North under Chinese control.  Sort of similar then, to the end of WW2 when the US and USSR were kinda/sorta allies, but not really, and we both had competing interests in how to divide up Germany.

on your point about Chinese escalation, I did read your reasoning, but I just don't find it that realistic.  You are right that China is not a perfect analogue of the USSR in WW2- that was a bit of a rough analogy, admittedly.  But I think it would also be incorrect to state China's involvement would be similar to that of the Korean War as well.  Consider that the US and China have a completely different relationship now than they did in the 50s, not to mention economic ties, trade, corporate entanglements, diplomatic relations, etc.

Yes, our respective armed forces would have fundamentally opposite interests.  That is true, but then again, so did the US/USSR in WW2, and that's why I brought that up as an example.  The war hadn't even ended yet by the time it had started to become clear that we were not going to agree on much when it came to how Germany was going to look going forward, and yet there was no confrontation over it (notwithstanding, of course, Patton's famous suggestion to the contrary, which by the way, he was not alone in his opinions at the time).

Of course, there is always the risk of an accident, you are right about that, but I think in the case of US/China, cooler heads would prevail.  We aren't friends, true, but we aren't enemies either.  We are kinda/sorta friends that tolerate each other because we have to, is maybe the best way to say it.  I think if there is a nuclear weapon used in Korea, the most likely scenario is that it is from Kim himself, perhaps as a retaliatory strike upon Seoul if he is attacked, or maybe as a 'last gasp' of his regime if he's about to lose the crown.

[Mike Thick]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

All of the above. I think that they may be more hesitant to use nukes than other WMD, since we would retaliate in kind and in force, but the point here is that any conflict would be prolonged and extremely bloody.

[SoLongAtlas]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/world/asia/north-korea-responds-sanctions-united-states.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/tillerson-in-thailand-presses-for-more-action-on-north-korea.html

NK says it will never give up its nukes and missiles, Tillerson trying to press NK in all of its regional neighbor nations. I read yest that the US won't directly talk to NK yet (even though we met with them at ASEAN but avoided looking like they were having sustained contact) so there's that aspect as well.

NK is backed into a corner on this one, if they jump it may be another test, maybe nuclear or another ICBM test. Waiting game continues.

[Coraxion]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

I think we should lance the boil before the infection gets any worse. The U.S. shouldn't be afraid to do whatever it takes. Conventional bombs. Have some agents infiltrate NK military establishments and knock out key personnel with chemical weapons. Prior to doing all this, rapidly withdraw all US and SK personnel from border/DMZ zone. The first strike should be at all nuclear sites in NK at once, to ensure they can't launch anything at Seoul.

Also, work with China to ensure they have NK's northern borders lined with mines (this planting of such can occur months ahead of the actual assault)

Wouldn't work. Virtually every person in North Korea is Korean. An American would stand out too much.

[SoLongAtlas]

I'm going to post this here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WyrYBrOC1o

Note this gives a good conventional wargaming scenario based on assets, responses, etc. but doesn't include some aspects that may be relevant such as C/B considerations or nuclear launches by NK.

To Higgins point, it wouldn't be with chem, but it would be via SK SOF taking point on that. Cora is right in the demographics side, white/black/Hispanic SOF, etc. would stick out like a sore thumb. NK is 99% Korean.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

I think we should lance the boil before the infection gets any worse. The U.S. shouldn't be afraid to do whatever it takes. Conventional bombs. Have some agents infiltrate NK military establishments and knock out key personnel with chemical weapons. Prior to doing all this, rapidly withdraw all US and SK personnel from border/DMZ zone. The first strike should be at all nuclear sites in NK at once, to ensure they can't launch anything at Seoul.

Also, work with China to ensure they have NK's northern borders lined with mines (this planting of such can occur months ahead of the actual assault)

Wouldn't work. Virtually every person in North Korea is Korean. An American would stand out too much.

There are 1.8 million Korean Americans, and over 12 million Asian Americans. I suspect the CIA or military could find some people who would blend in. And that's assuming he wasn't talking about a Osama-takeout-style strike by special ops.

I still think it would be a terrible idea unlikely to succeed or have the intended effect.

[Coraxion]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

I think we should lance the boil before the infection gets any worse. The U.S. shouldn't be afraid to do whatever it takes. Conventional bombs. Have some agents infiltrate NK military establishments and knock out key personnel with chemical weapons. Prior to doing all this, rapidly withdraw all US and SK personnel from border/DMZ zone. The first strike should be at all nuclear sites in NK at once, to ensure they can't launch anything at Seoul.

Also, work with China to ensure they have NK's northern borders lined with mines (this planting of such can occur months ahead of the actual assault)

Wouldn't work. Virtually every person in North Korea is Korean. An American would stand out too much.

There are 1.8 million Korean Americans, and over 12 million Asian Americans. I suspect the CIA or military could find some people who would blend in. And that's assuming he wasn't talking about a Osama-takeout-style strike by special ops.

I still think it would be a terrible idea unlikely to succeed or have the intended effect.

I don't think many of those 1.8 million speak the North Korean standard dialect.

[SoLongAtlas]

Speaking of which...

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
After many years of failure,countries are coming together to  finally address the dangers posed by North Korea. We must be tough & decisive!
4:17 AM - 8 Aug 2017

[Santander]

Massive artillery barrage on Seoul, funneled troops including SOF push south, potential nuclear ICBM launches on Seoul, Tokyo, Pusan, US west coast. We know where they have some toys but not all of the chest, let me put it that way. 30 to 40,000 KIA within the first two hours. Guaranteed NK retaliation via the methods above and maybe chem/bio launches, insurgency. Bad stuff Higgins but the US and SK would win it in the end.

I think we should lance the boil before the infection gets any worse. The U.S. shouldn't be afraid to do whatever it takes. Conventional bombs. Have some agents infiltrate NK military establishments and knock out key personnel with chemical weapons. Prior to doing all this, rapidly withdraw all US and SK personnel from border/DMZ zone. The first strike should be at all nuclear sites in NK at once, to ensure they can't launch anything at Seoul.

Also, work with China to ensure they have NK's northern borders lined with mines (this planting of such can occur months ahead of the actual assault)

Wouldn't work. Virtually every person in North Korea is Korean. An American would stand out too much.

There are 1.8 million Korean Americans, and over 12 million Asian Americans. I suspect the CIA or military could find some people who would blend in. And that's assuming he wasn't talking about a Osama-takeout-style strike by special ops.

I still think it would be a terrible idea unlikely to succeed or have the intended effect.

Even if this fantasy that infiltrating North Korean military establishments with American agents was realistic, it is rather racist to assume that just because "they all look the same" to us, we could just plop even an ethnic Korean American (let alone an ethnic North Korean) and just expect them to pass as a local, even with training. If you have lived in these countries, you know that they can spot a foreigner from a mile away before they even open their mouths, regardless of their appearance. Literally every aspect of their behavior is different from ours. Ironically, North Korea's technological backwardness provides some degree of protection against covert attacks.

The only realistic method of North Korea infiltration would be to have Americans pose as a European students for basic espionage only, since foreign students are basically left alone to live free in North Korea ("you all look the same" is a two-way street). Foreign businessmen would get more access, but much more scrutiny. Student and academic/cultural exchange visas are classic routes for spies to enter target countries.

[Higgins]

Do we have any stocks of Napalm left?

[SoLongAtlas]

Do we have any stocks of Napalm left?

We can use Napalm B if needed. Obama signed a treaty against it but it states that it can be ignored if its use would save civilian lives, easy loophole to go through for usage. You don't really need to use it that much with advanced laser and satellite guided munitions but it can still be used for foliage, anti-personnel. I doubt we would employ it against NK.

[Coraxion]

Are there any options that don't involve burning people alive?

[ProudModerate2]

Do we have any stocks of Napalm left?

Napalm is out.
Cluster bombs are in.
https://youtu.be/5Q0Ulciz6fE