Gun to your head: Will Trump be reelected?

[TDAS04]

Vote!

[GoTfan]

At this stage, yes. Democrats have no message. The party is divided between the left and the centrists. The centrists resist any changes wanted by the left because it directly threatens their wealthy donors and their chances of getting a cushy lobbying job post-office.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

At this stage, yes. Democrats have no message. The party is divided between the left and the centrists. The centrists resist any changes wanted by the left because it directly threatens their wealthy donors and their chances of getting a cushy lobbying job post-office.

You realize a fair chunk of the actual population is centre/centre-left, right? Centrists don't just exist on Wall Street.

[AN63093]

I voted "Yes, but without popular vote again," because I think the Dems haven't maxed out CA yet and it could trend D even more.

This is, of course, without knowing what the state of the economy will be, or who the D candidate will be, so all I have to go on is Trump having an incumbency advantage (assuming he runs again).

I think people tend to get a little too caught in the weeds when looking at individual elections and get wrapped up around minutia (e.g., "demographics is destiny" or the millennials D party identification %, and so on).  I think these are all great for evaluating long-term trends and what states will look like in 10, 20 years.. but for short-term election predictions, less helpful.  It's really just a question of a) does the economy suck; and b) do you have an affable, relate-able candidate that drives up turnout among your necessary demographics?

If the answer to both of those is "yes," then the Dems will probably be able to increase turn-out enough in Detroit and FL to win.  If the answer is "no," then Trump probably wins, simple as that.

[progressive85]

I think that the Democrats will not win the House in 2018, that 2020 will be an even nastier election than 2016, the Democrat will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.  I think there's also a possibility that there could be a 269-269 tie if the Democrats can win PA, MI, and the other Maine district... I think in both 2018 and 2020 the media will hype them as Democratic blowouts, only for us to wake up and be disappointed.

Trump's second term will be when all hell breaks loose - it will be worse than Watergate.  2022 will be a bloodbath for the Republicans, with Trump having the lowest approval rating in history - in the low 20s and over 65% disapproval.

Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a very bumpy, long eight years.

[TheSaint250]

Option 5

[Technocracy Timmy]

Pence probably wins with incumbency and a steady economy. He could very well lose the PV or eek out a plurality victory. Map ranges from 2016 - MI to 2016 + MN, NH, and Maine statewide.

[mcmikk]

In this great democracy we have, stupid sh**t like Trump getting reelected can happen.

I think the Democratic establishment will screw it up and put their support behind a lousy candidate, and even if a good candidate emerges from the primaries, the Republicans will do what they did to Hillary Clinton and exaggerate/make stuff up about the Democratic candidate, thus creating the same dynamic/false equivalency that happened in 2016. The Democrat will likely win the popular vote for the same reasons Hillary won in 2016.(unpopularity of Trump, their margins in big cities and states like NY and CA, etc.)

[Beet]

So is the consensus that the electoral college is the only thing holding up Trump? Is there anything that can be done about this? Surely there are people who realize what an undemocratic and illegitimate system this is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So is the consensus that the electoral college is the only thing holding up Trump? Is there anything that can be done about this? Surely there are people who realize what an undemocratic and illegitimate system this is.

the electoral college could have easily gave us president kerry in 2004.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't see how Trump is re-elected but anything is possible. If I had to bet I would say he will be defeated by a Democrat.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Yes with the popular vote

[Technocracy Timmy]

So is the consensus that the electoral college is the only thing holding up Trump? Is there anything that can be done about this? Surely there are people who realize what an undemocratic and illegitimate system this is.

the electoral college could have easily gave us president kerry in 2004.

Or President Obama in 2012 while losing the PV to Romney.

[Mr. Smith]

For now: Nope.

Divided as the Democrats are, the GOP are failing at governing [and in many ways very divided themselves] and no benefit of the doubt can be thrown their way if it stays and things go wrong. If jobs falter or come back wrong, all that needs be said is "Is America Great Again?" by a charismatic candidate that either wing'll get behind.

And when Trump gets Buchananized (or Kennedied given the rather Carter-esque circumstances), a few "broken clock" sound bites should be used against him.

I mean there are possibilities of Trump pulling a Dubya '04 and barely getting over the line, or for him to end up like Franklin Pierce against Kasich [his whole brand and ego won't let him go the way of LBJ or Truman], but these seem to be rather minute atm.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So is the consensus that the electoral college is the only thing holding up Trump? Is there anything that can be done about this? Surely there are people who realize what an undemocratic and illegitimate system this is.

the electoral college could have easily gave us president kerry in 2004.

Or President Obama in 2012 while losing the PV to Romney.

true as well.
People have a way too recent-event-colored view of the EC. The fact remains that it just disadvantages the party with a more concentrated voter base. That party could be the GOP at some point in the future. It's been like that in the past. Romney was piling up massive landslides in Mormonland and the Deep South, and Bush did extremely well in Texas. In both years Dems won most of the Midwest by relatively tiny margins.
Looking at things more broadly, it's not clear the EC even hurts Dems at all overall, if you take all of the past 10-15 years into account. Rs could have just ended up lucky.

[TheSaint250]

Option 5

[Technocracy Timmy]

So is the consensus that the electoral college is the only thing holding up Trump? Is there anything that can be done about this? Surely there are people who realize what an undemocratic and illegitimate system this is.

the electoral college could have easily gave us president kerry in 2004.

Or President Obama in 2012 while losing the PV to Romney.

true as well.
People have a way too recent-event-colored view of the EC. The fact remains that it just disadvantages the party with a more concentrated voter base. That party could be the GOP at some point in the future. It's been like that in the past. Romney was piling up massive landslides in Mormonland and the Deep South, and Bush did extremely well in Texas. In both years Dems won most of the Midwest by relatively tiny margins.
Looking at things more broadly, it's not clear the EC even hurts Dems at all overall, if you take all of the past 10-15 years into account. Rs could have just ended up lucky.

The Midwest (plus Florida to a lesser extent) seems to be the region that has decided Presidential elections from 2000-2016 more or less.

[Coraxion]

Trump will get Blanched.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So is the consensus that the electoral college is the only thing holding up Trump? Is there anything that can be done about this? Surely there are people who realize what an undemocratic and illegitimate system this is.

the electoral college could have easily gave us president kerry in 2004.

Or President Obama in 2012 while losing the PV to Romney.

true as well.
People have a way too recent-event-colored view of the EC. The fact remains that it just disadvantages the party with a more concentrated voter base. That party could be the GOP at some point in the future. It's been like that in the past. Romney was piling up massive landslides in Mormonland and the Deep South, and Bush did extremely well in Texas. In both years Dems won most of the Midwest by relatively tiny margins.
Looking at things more broadly, it's not clear the EC even hurts Dems at all overall, if you take all of the past 10-15 years into account. Rs could have just ended up lucky.

The Midwest (plus Florida to a lesser extent) seems to be the region that has decided Presidential elections from 2000-2016 more or less.

Very true.
Now it's interesting if the GOP is able to paint most of the MIdwest red, but loses the West (and Mormons). It's a margins game now. How Dem would states like UT, NV, and AZ be compared to the GOPness of IA, WI, and MI? That would determine how likely EV/PV splits are.

[DrScholl]

No, he will lose to a Democrat. The problem for Trump is that he can't play the outsider anymore and he will actually have a record to defend (so far it's not a good one).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very true.
Now it's interesting if the GOP is able to paint most of the MIdwest red, but loses the West (and Mormons). It's a margins game now. How Dem would states like UT, NV, and AZ be compared to the GOPness of IA, WI, and MI? That would determine how likely EV/PV splits are.

I think the GOP strategy in 2020 (and possibly 2024) will be to increase their share of the white vote. So I don't see them investing heavily in expanding Trump's 2016 map beyond lily white states (MN, NH, Maine at large, etc) and perhaps in Nevada since it did trend slightly Republican last year. Trump's populism was largely a farce and the income and social mobility statistics for Latinos and African Americans seem to present a pretty clear challenge in trying to incorporate them into the GOP moving forward (along with all of Trump's race baiting last year...and the year before that). They could court Asian voters but they're only 4-5% of the electorate and nearly half of them reside in New York or California.

If they do this does this make their vote more EV effecient or less EV efficient?

[Phony Moderate]

No, he will lose to a Democrat. The problem for Trump is that he can't play the outsider anymore and he will actually have a record to defend (so far it's not a good one).

As did Truman in '48...

[DrScholl]

No, he will lose to a Democrat. The problem for Trump is that he can't play the outsider anymore and he will actually have a record to defend (so far it's not a good one).

As did Truman in '48...

Because Trump is totally comparable to Harry Truman.

[BuckeyeNut]

Option 2.

[DrScholl]

I'll add that Trump could get re-elected if there is a massive terrorist attack that is worse than 9/11 and he handles it flawlessly.