NV-Strategic National: Amodei 27%, Heller 26%, Tarkanian 21% in GOP primary

[The Other Castro]

Hypothetical 3-way GOP primary:
Mark Amodei - 27%
Dean Heller - 26%
Danny Tarkanian - 21%

Head to Head with Tarkanian:
Heller - 38%
Tarkanian - 34%
Undecided - 27%

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Heller Approval: 31%-43% (-12)

Heller Favorability: 39%-43% (-4)

Tarkanian Favorability: 37%-34% (+3)

Amodei Favorability: 25%-13% (+12)

Survey of 500 registered Nevada Republicans conducted over August 1-2.

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http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/07/exclusive-new-poll-shows-nevadas-dean-heller-is-vulnerable-in-gop-primary/

[Pollster]

Interesting how GOP could potentially throw away seats this cycle with primary challengers to incumbents who are already weak. If Tarkanian lost to Rosen 47-46 in the 3rd as Trump was winning 48-47, he probably loses to Rosen statewide by at least 5 points, assuming the climate is the same as 2016 (which it likely won't be).

It will be interesting to see if other GOP senators face unexpected primary challenges that could make other seats (with the right Dem candidate) competitive and have effects down ballot as well. A Trumpy primary challenger to Deb Fischer may not make the Senate seat competitive but could certainly change the landscape for NE-2.

[NewYorkExpress]

I thought Amodei said he wasn't running?

[Holmes]

I thought Amodei said he wasn't running?

I believe so. He's more likely to run for attorney general.

[Heisenberg]

I thought Amodei said he wasn't running?

I believe so. He's more likely to run for attorney general.

I thought he said he was running for reelection and wasn't interested in Attorney General?

[Holmes]

I thought Amodei said he wasn't running?

I believe so. He's more likely to run for attorney general.

I thought he said he was running for reelection and wasn't interested in Attorney General?

Yeah, that's why I said he's more likely to run for AG, not that he probably will, but he has left the door open. If things look bad for Republicans nationally before the filing date in Nevada (which I believe is the first week of February?) then I could see him jump to the AG race instead of facing a more difficult than normal re-election campaign and then serve in the minority.

[Maxwell]

Amodei wouldn't run against Heller.

[SATW]

Dean Heller has my full support. He is a capable incumbent and none of these people would even come closing to winning a general.

[JMT]

Amodei wouldn't run against Heller.

I agree, that won't happen. But Tarkanian very well may run against Heller. It would be great to see Tark defeat Heller in the primary, throwing the election away for the GOP. I wouldn't rule that out at this point, certainly seems possible.

[JMT]

I thought Amodei said he wasn't running?

I believe so. He's more likely to run for attorney general.

I thought he said he was running for reelection and wasn't interested in Attorney General?

Yeah, that's why I said he's more likely to run for AG, not that he probably will, but he has left the door open. If things look bad for Republicans nationally before the filing date in Nevada (which I believe is the first week of February?) then I could see him jump to the AG race instead of facing a more difficult than normal re-election campaign and then serve in the minority.

I could be wrong, but I believe I read somewhere that Amodei definitively ruled out running for Attorney General and said he would run for reelection instead. And while this next election may disastrous for Republicans, I still think Amodei would seek reelection because he represents an R+7 district, and he'd be safe running for it again. Running statewide (for AG) in a state Hillary won in a midterm with an unpopular Republican President would be far more difficult than running for reelection in a fairly safe district, in my view.

[maga2020]

Flake and Heller will be primaried

[I’m not Stu]

Dean Heller has my full support. He is a capable incumbent and none of these people would even come closing to winning a general.

I'm also endorsing Heller.