NH-ARG: Kasich leading Trump, Pence in GOP primary.

[Senator Cris]

Kasich 52%
Trump 40%

Kasich 41%
Pence 27%

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/345687-new-hampshire-poll-kasich-leads-trump-among-likely-gop-primary-voters

[Mike Thick]

This can't possibly be accurate

[SoLongAtlas]

Primary inbound

[Gass3268]

Kasich 52%
Trump 40%

Likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire have a 44/53 approval of Trump.

They also tested Pence:

Kasich 41%
Pence 27%

Source

[Strudelcutie4427]

Interesting. I wonder if that could hold up in 2.5 years, although theres no New Hampshire primary that something bizarre doesnt happen in

[Phony Moderate]

So easy, ain't it.

[TheSaint250]

Huh

[SoLongAtlas]

LVs and not adults ± 4%, good poll if accurate. Kasich should go for it. If he doesn't beat Trump, he will tick him off and further split his base for the GE, all good things.

[TheSaint250]

Just as a general public service announcement, 538 gave ARG a C+.

I personally still believe the poll is somewhat legit.

[Gass3268]

LVs and not adults ± 4%, good poll if accurate. Kasich should go for it. If he doesn't beat Trump, he will tick him off and further split his base for the GE, all good things.

Based on some of his present actions, I definitely think he's taking a strong look at it.

[TheSaint250]

As I put in the other thread, 538 gave this pollster a C+.

I still think this is relatively legit poll.

[TheSaint250]

LVs and not adults ± 4%, good poll if accurate. Kasich should go for it. If he doesn't beat Trump, he will tick him off and further split his base for the GE, all good things.

Based on some of his present actions, I definitely think he's taking a strong look at it.

Up until this poll, I thought an independent candidacy would be the way to go for him. Now I'm not so sure

[SoLongAtlas]

LVs and not adults ± 4%, good poll if accurate. Kasich should go for it. If he doesn't beat Trump, he will tick him off and further split his base for the GE, all good things.

Based on some of his present actions, I definitely think he's taking a strong look at it.

Up until this poll, I thought an independent candidacy would be the way to go for him. Now I'm not so sure

He should run against Trump as an R and if he doesn't get it, run as an indy. He has avenues open for both options. NH voters are moderate/libertarian so it will help him against a toxic Trump. Harder in SC but doable in other states, esp. if Trump dips to the 20s.

[RINO Tom]

John Kasich running as an Indy defeats his purpose.  People like Kasich and "#NeverTrump Republicans" don't just dislike Trump as a person, they take great issue with the influence he's had on THEIR party, a party they were members of and gave decades of service to before Trump ever joined it.

[SoLongAtlas]

John Kasich running as an Indy defeats his purpose.  People like Kasich and "#NeverTrump Republicans" don't just dislike Trump as a person, they take great issue with the influence he's had on THEIR party, a party they were members of and gave decades of service to before Trump ever joined it.

And yet ignored the trends and economics of modern America that gave way for Trump's win. They have no one to blame but themselves. I have been to a few GOP meetings in years past as a volunteer for campaigns and as a member (albeit short-lived) and I can tell you that they bubble is small and increasingly such. They are ignoring the call for moderation time and time again. Kasich would be in that mold and have the country-club economics (which they need to ditch) so it would be a crossover appeal situation.

[TheSaint250]

If it ends up being a Trump vs. Kasich primary, I only see Kasich winning NH out of the four early states. Maybe NV, but considering that that was Trump's strongest, probably not.

[Mr. Morden]

Even though ARG sucks, I hope this result is enticing enough that it prompts real pollsters to start conducting some 2020 polls of their own.

[pbrower2a]

Poll by ARG in New Hampshire, but only of people who say that they intend to vote in the Republican Primary of 2020.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kasich 52 - Trump 40

Republicans 51-42
Undeclared  54-37

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kasich 41 - Pence 27

Republicans 37-30
Undeclared 48-21

....

New Hampshire is no longer a microcosm of America, but even this electorally-small state in a corner of the US powerfully suggests that Republicans are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump is a huge mistake.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres20/

[pbrower2a]

A C+ pollster will still get some things right -- when those things are blatant. A C+ student will get the easy questions right on most quizzes. Maybe not the tough ones, though.

[RINO Tom]

John Kasich running as an Indy defeats his purpose.  People like Kasich and "#NeverTrump Republicans" don't just dislike Trump as a person, they take great issue with the influence he's had on THEIR party, a party they were members of and gave decades of service to before Trump ever joined it.

And yet ignored the trends and economics of modern America that gave way for Trump's win. They have no one to blame but themselves. I have been to a few GOP meetings in years past as a volunteer for campaigns and as a member (albeit short-lived) and I can tell you that they bubble is small and increasingly such. They are ignoring the call for moderation time and time again. Kasich would be in that mold and have the country-club economics (which they need to ditch) so it would be a crossover appeal situation.

All I was saying is that these people aren't out to get Trump, they want their party to stand for something that isn't "Trumpism," so they're never going to just LEAVE the GOP; they're going to fight for its soul.  You say ditch "country-club economics" (you know who else was accused of economic policies only helping the country club?  Lincoln, Grant, Coolidge, Eisenhower and Reagan ... at a certain point, if you don't like the GOP, don't vote for it), I say fix the messaging.  Trump is still governing largely like a generic Republican.  There is a party for demonizing those who make it in our capitalist economy, and it ain't the GOP.  That doesn't mean only have policies that help the rich, that would be ridiculous; it also doesn't mean become a culturally conservative version of the Democrats.

[Classic Conservative]

Are you guys seriously believing ARG? They suck as a company.

[uti2]

Are you guys seriously believing ARG? They suck as a company.

The Pence numbers are more interesting than the Trump numbers.

This poll is worse news for Pence than Trump. The fact that Pence can't even break 30% in the state demonstrates that his base is pretty small there. Obviously, margins can be improved during the course of campaigning, but Pence will have to deal with an inherently smaller level of core support, esp. amongst Moderate Republicans.

[uti2]

There need to be an adjustment to the idea that all Trump voters are inherently also 'Generic R' or Pence voters. Trump consistently won sizable numbers of moderate/liberal republicans.

[uti2]

John Kasich running as an Indy defeats his purpose.  People like Kasich and "#NeverTrump Republicans" don't just dislike Trump as a person, they take great issue with the influence he's had on THEIR party, a party they were members of and gave decades of service to before Trump ever joined it.

And yet ignored the trends and economics of modern America that gave way for Trump's win. They have no one to blame but themselves. I have been to a few GOP meetings in years past as a volunteer for campaigns and as a member (albeit short-lived) and I can tell you that they bubble is small and increasingly such. They are ignoring the call for moderation time and time again. Kasich would be in that mold and have the country-club economics (which they need to ditch) so it would be a crossover appeal situation.

All I was saying is that these people aren't out to get Trump, they want their party to stand for something that isn't "Trumpism," so they're never going to just LEAVE the GOP; they're going to fight for its soul.  You say ditch "country-club economics" (you know who else was accused of economic policies only helping the country club?  Lincoln, Grant, Coolidge, Eisenhower and Reagan ... at a certain point, if you don't like the GOP, don't vote for it), I say fix the messaging.  Trump is still governing largely like a generic Republican.  There is a party for demonizing those who make it in our capitalist economy, and it ain't the GOP.  That doesn't mean only have policies that help the rich, that would be ridiculous; it also doesn't mean become a culturally conservative version of the Democrats.

Such 'great messaging' allowed an incumbent Bush who campaigned as a moderate compassionate conservative who expanded medicare to win 2004 by a similar margin as Trump (100k votes in OH), and allowed him to win as a non-incumbent by less than 500 votes in 2000.

Maybe it's not the messaging, but the fluke of Bushism, who barely won despite running as a relative moderate.

[uti2]

^To add to that train of thought, don't forget that a lot of people initially thought they were getting Bush Sr. part 2 when Bush was elected in 2000.