Trump did better with Hispanics in western sunbelt, worse with whites vs 2012
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  Trump did better with Hispanics in western sunbelt, worse with whites vs 2012
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Author Topic: Trump did better with Hispanics in western sunbelt, worse with whites vs 2012  (Read 637 times)
super6646
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« on: August 08, 2017, 05:45:51 PM »
« edited: August 08, 2017, 06:29:07 PM by super6646 »

So this was kind of an interesting thing I noticed in a lot of sunbelt states, specifcally in ones in the west. Trump did worse with whites (with the exception of Nevada), but better with Hispanics.

Nevada (2012):

Hispanics: 71-24 (Obama)

Whites: 56-43 (Romney)

Nevada (2016):

Hispanics: 60-29 (Clinton)

Whites: 56-38 (Trump)

Colorado (2012):

Hispanics: 75-23 (Obama)

Whites: 55-44 (Romney)

Colorado (2016):

Hispanics: 67-30 (Clinton)

Whites: 47-45 (Trump)

New Mexico (2012):

Hispanics: 65-29 (Obama)

Whites: 56-41 (Romney)

New Mexico (2016):

Hispanics: 54-33 (Clinton)

Whites: 47-42 (Trump)

Arizona (2012):

Hispanics: 74-25 (Obama)

Whites: 66-32 (Romney)

Arizona (2016):

Hispanics: 61-31 (Clinton)

Whites: 54-40 (Trump)

I've noticed that were whites make up 3/4 of the electorate or more (Colorado or Arizona), he either did worse than Romney overall (Arizona), or the state trended democratic this cycle (Colorado). On the other hand, Trump performed better in Nevada and in New Mexico compared to Romney. Both of those states have smaller white populations, and larger hispanic populations. So why did Trump do much better with Hispanics, but much worse with whites? Aside from doing worse with college educated women in the suburbs (would apply to Colorado's case), I don't know why the same happened in Arizona and New Mexico, but not transfer to Nevada.

2012 exit polls: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

2016 exit polls: http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2017, 06:04:44 PM »

Huh. Good find.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2017, 06:16:23 PM »

Very interesting. I wonder if whites are more suburban and urban and there are a lot of Hispanics in rural areas in these states?
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super6646
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2017, 06:47:40 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2017, 06:49:12 PM by super6646 »

Very interesting. I wonder if whites are more suburban and urban and there are a lot of Hispanics in rural areas in these states?

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/map_of_the_week/2012/07/map_of_america_s_hispanic_population_county_by_county.html

A map of hispanic populations in counties. It is a few years out of date, but the information is decent enough.

In Nevada's case, most people live in Clark county (which is 30% hispanic), but a lot of the rural areas are around 1/4 hispanic. Trump did better than Romney (in terms of margins, same with percentage due to third party) in Clark county, so that could explain how Trump did better with hispanics. The entire state did swing towards the GOP, so the exit poll results do add up.


In Arizona, the swings kind of went everywhere. Maricopa county is around 60% non-hispanic white, but it does have a decent hispanic population. Greenlee county (which is almost 50% hispanic) swung more than 10% towards Trump, but Santa Cruz county (more than 80% hispanic) swung slightly against him. So I would have to do more research, but its definently hard to pinpoint what exactly happened there.

In Colorado, Trump did worse in the suburbs and Denver, but far better in rural areas. The rural areas mostly swung republican, including ones with heavy hispanic populations (Conejos county flipped republican and is majority hispanic, while Costilla county swung heavily towards him and is 66% hispanic). The one Denver suburban county Trump did better in was Adams county compared to Romney, which also has the largest hispanic population of the Denver suburbs (almost 40% hispanic). So the numbers do add up in Colorado as well.

In New Meixco, Trump did poorly in Los Alamos county (75% non-hispanic white), which does explain his drop in white voters. Almost everywhere else swung republican (most of the rural areas are heavily hispanic), so Trump doing better with hispanics should be expected in NM.

So your hypothesis appears to be correct. I would've expected the opposite to be the case (hispanics in the cities, whites in the suburbs and rural areas), but you were correct.

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