Alaska 2016
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Author Topic: Alaska 2016  (Read 1889 times)
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 01, 2017, 08:20:33 PM »

I was shocked when I saw the results for the senatorial election in Alaska.
Joe Miller almost received 30% of the vote. And he even won some House districts. Did he also win a borough? Was it the best statewide performance of a Libertarian ever? And was it the first time that a Libertarian won a county(-equivalent) in a statewide race?
And why did de perform so well anyway? Or was Murkowski rather a poor fit?

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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2017, 08:26:11 PM »

He already had high name recognition from his 2010 campaign (he was the GOP nominee), and many Republicans would rather die than vote for a so-called RINO.  Thus, the large number of protest votes for Miller.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2017, 08:26:42 PM »

I was shocked when I saw the results for the senatorial election in Alaska.
Joe Miller almost received 30% of the vote. And he even won some House districts. Did he also win a borough? Was it the best statewide performance of a Libertarian ever? And was it the first time that a Libertarian won a county(-equivalent) in a statewide race?
And why did de perform so well anyway? Or was Murkowski rather a poor fit?


Look back at 2010.
He won the nomination, but Murkowski ran a successful write-in campaign and won senator again.  In 2016 the only libertarian dropped out and the party picked Miller as a replacement, he merely got the base he had in 2010.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2017, 08:28:15 PM »

Why did the party allow for Miller to run under their label? Not only is he not a libertarian, don't the libertarians run in a Dem-Libert-AK Ind. primary?
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2017, 08:30:47 PM »

If Murkowski had managed to win via write-in, one might expect her to win even much more overwhelmingly under the GOP label.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2017, 08:34:17 PM »

Not really surprising, Miller was the only conservative candidate in this race and Third parties have always done well in Alaska. The state has an Independent streak, and Miller had high name recognition from his 2010 run.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2017, 09:04:18 PM »

This was a bizarre and thrilling race that got very little attention because Murkowski was never actually going to lose - the Dem nominee actually came in fourth behind an independent candidate who had the endorsement of Mark Begich.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2017, 09:10:34 PM »

Libertarians have done better in a few statewide races -- John Monds got 33.4% in a 2008 Georgia Public Services Commission race, and Josh Trumbull won 32.8% in Washington's Attorney General election last year. However, this appears to be their best-ever performance in a race with both a Republican and Democrat running.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2017, 09:26:05 PM »

He was the only conservative in a race with 3 major liberal candidates. In addition, he had very high name ID.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2017, 10:31:51 PM »

Interestingly, this race jad four candidates that were either currently Republicans or formerly. Metcalfe only wwitched to the Democrats a decade ago and I thonk it mightjust been a political opportunist move. He raised and spent no money so I don't think had any presence.

Cean Stevens was the only Libertarian to file and withdrew after the primary so that Miller could replace her. I think the Libertarian line was just a matter of convenience for Miller because he was opposed to many Libertarian party planks and made no secret of it. Either way he barely raised or spent any money, and jumped in the race at the beginning of September so there wasn't a lot of time left to campaign. He's been vocal in his opposition to Walker's administration so I think that's what kept him in people's minds, so he probably got his support from voters who dislike both Walker and Murkowksi.
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Kamala
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2017, 10:37:53 PM »

Stock would've been a pretty great senator, imo. Murkowski's not bad either.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2017, 06:52:44 AM »

Libertarians have done better in a few statewide races -- John Monds got 33.4% in a 2008 Georgia Public Services Commission race, and Josh Trumbull won 32.8% in Washington's Attorney General election last year. However, this appears to be their best-ever performance in a race with both a Republican and Democrat running.

You're right. Wikipedia says that Miller's performance in Alaska was the best of any Libertarian in a senatorial election. I wasn't sure if it was even the best statewide performance of any race, and I didn't know either if another Libertarian has won any counties in a statewide election. And I discovered that Miller wasn't the first Libertarian to do so..

Here's the 2016 Attorney General General Election map of Washington; Libertarian candidate Joshua B. Trumbull received 32.75% of the vote:


John Monds ran for Public Service Commissioner for district 1 back in 2008. He was the first Libertarian in Georgia to receive more than 1 Million votes (1,076,780 or 33.4%).
He even won three counties: Clayton (64.2%), DeKalb (57.9%) and Hancock (54.2%). He also came close to winning Fulton (48.9%).

Question 1: In how far is a district-1 election a statewide election? Huh
Question 2: Does anybody happen to know if a Libertarian has won any counties in a statewide election where both a Republican and a Democrat competed?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2017, 07:43:04 AM »

^ to answer your last question, WI's 2002 gubernatorial election.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2017, 08:38:46 AM »
« Edited: August 02, 2017, 08:54:56 AM by Ἅιδης »

^ to answer your last question, WI's 2002 gubernatorial election.

Thanks! How did Ed Thompson manage to win those two counties (Monroe and Juneau)?

Edit: I just found out. Two very simple reasons: First off, he is the younger brother of former governor Tommy Thompson; second off, he was the mayor of Thoma, which lies in Monroe County.
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Canis
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2017, 05:15:27 PM »

What was the best statewide preformance of the green party?
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Kamala
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2017, 05:32:19 PM »

What was the best statewide preformance of the green party?

Off the top of my head, maybe Arkansas senate 2008?
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2017, 09:25:13 PM »

John Monds ran for Public Service Commissioner for district 1 back in 2008. He was the first Libertarian in Georgia to receive more than 1 Million votes (1,076,780 or 33.4%).
He even won three counties: Clayton (64.2%), DeKalb (57.9%) and Hancock (54.2%). He also came close to winning Fulton (48.9%).

Question 1: In how far is a district-1 election a statewide election? Huh

It's a strange system: the Georgia PSC commissioners nominally represent one of 5 districts but actually are elected statewide. So it's really a statewide race.
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Canis
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2017, 12:15:46 AM »

What was the best statewide preformance of the green party?

Off the top of my head, maybe Arkansas senate 2008?
Your probably right its crazy that the republicans didn't  run anyone against Pryor I wish there was data to see if the republicans voted more for Pryor of Kennedy
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2017, 11:58:10 AM »

This was a bizarre and thrilling race that got very little attention because Murkowski was never actually going to lose - the Dem nominee actually came in fourth behind an independent candidate who had the endorsement of Mark Begich.

It was reminiscent of the 2006 gubernatorial election in Texas, when Oops first ran for re-election.
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Canis
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2017, 06:56:02 PM »


found another election where libertarians did well in North dakota for state auditor Ronald Riemers got 22% of the vote and won two counties coincidentally they are the same counties clinton won
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Jeppe
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2017, 10:11:41 PM »


found another election where libertarians did well in North dakota for state auditor Ronald Riemers got 22% of the vote and won two counties coincidentally they are the same counties clinton won


Probably just a big Native American population in those counties.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2017, 12:15:14 PM »

Like some other posters mentioned, I don't think it had much to do with libertarians. IMO, Joe Miller has a base of SoCons, tea partiers, and hard right republicans. Lisa Murkowski has a base of establishment Rs, "RINOs," independents, and a few democrats that she wooed in 2010 and managed to keep on her side by supporting things like the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell. Murkowski's group is just larger than Miller's group in Alaska.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2017, 12:43:12 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2017, 12:47:42 PM by Tintrlvr »


found another election where libertarians did well in North dakota for state auditor Ronald Riemers got 22% of the vote and won two counties coincidentally they are the same counties clinton won


Not a coincidence at all. There was no Democrat on the ballot. Libertarians can usually get 15-25% of the vote anywhere when only one major party runs a candidate. The Greens have gotten to 25% of the vote statewide in Arkansas. Doesn't mean anything except that 22% of North Dakotans prefer a Libertarian to a Republican (not shocking). It's more interesting when minor party candidates or independents do well even with both major parties running. (For other examples, see also the Illinois gubernatorial election in 2006 or the Massachusetts Senate election in 2000, or nearly all gubernatorial elections in Maine going back to the 1970s.)
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2017, 12:37:41 AM »

I feel like a lot of the 2008 Arkansas voters were misinformed Republicans who didn't want to vote for a Democrat, so they ended up going for someone even more liberal.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2017, 12:55:17 AM »

I feel like a lot of the 2008 Arkansas voters were misinformed Republicans who didn't want to vote for a Democrat, so they ended up going for someone even more liberal.
There are probably some Republicans who absolutely would not vote Democrat, and just take any third party if the GOP doesn't put up a candidate.
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