Why did John Kerry lose New Mexico?

[Da2017]

..

[Skunk]

Hispanics weren't as Democratic leaning as they are today, Bush won something like 44% of the Hispanic vote overall in 2004 iirc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hispanics weren't as Democratic leaning as they are today, Bush won something like 44% of the Hispanic vote overall in 2004 iirc.

that, and Bush won utter landslides in Little Texas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[Pollster]

The GOP, especially the Bushes, were not yet anathema to Hispanics at the time. The state was also razor thin in 2000, so it makes sense that Bush would flip it when going from a national 48.5-48 loss to a 51-48 win.

[Lord Wreath]

Historically, it had always been a 'swing-y' sort of state. Maybe not an Ohio, but a state that could definitely go either way. Until 2008 when the Republican Party collapsed in the state, it had only backed a loser twice, in 1976 and 2000.

[The Govanah Jake]

Back when republicans didn't utterly suck with getting Hispanics.

[Averroës Nix]

This is also a state in which the shift in voting patterns within a single large metro - one that accounts for a growing portion of the statewide vote - explains a lot.

If you just look at the map, the comparison between 2004 and 2016 doesn't tell you much:



Sandoval and tiny Los Alamos flip, but these only account for a small portion of Democratic margins. Sandoval has a decent population, but a small swing; Los Alamos has a huge swing, but even that doesn't amount to much in a county that amounts to barely 1% of votes cast.

Here are the numbers from Bernalillo County, which accounts for a large majority of the Albuquerque MSA's population and about one-third of the state's vote:

2000: 48.7% Gore, +4k votes
2004: 51.5% Kerry, +11k votes
2008: 60.0% Obama, +61k votes
2012: 55.6% Obama, +45k votes
2016: 52.2% Clinton, +48k votes

Also, Dona Ana County - site of Las Cruces, the state's second largest city, adjacent to El Paso, and two-thirds Hispanic - has gained population and shifted strongly toward Democrats:

2000: 51.3% Gore, +2k votes
2004: 51.3% Kerry, +2k votes
2008: 58.1% Obama, +12k votes
2012: 55.9% Obama, +10k votes
2016: 53.7% Clinton, +13k votes

Democrats have won big statewide victories largely on the basis of margins in these counties - together, they account for 94%, 69%, 58% of the margin in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections. The Democratic vote has also held up almost everywhere, including the six north-central counties that they tend to win by wide margins. Even with Gary Johnson taking a tenth of the state's vote, they can win much larger victories than were possible for them in the Bush era.

[nclib]

Hispanics weren't as Democratic leaning as they are today, Bush won something like 44% of the Hispanic vote overall in 2004 iirc.

Yes, but even then W. Bush did better among Hispanics than most Republicans. Though northeastern Hispanics (mainly Dominican and Puerto Rican) were more Democratic and anti-Bush than Hispanics in the Southwest (mainly Mexican).

[UWS]

Because Bush is fluent is Spanish, which helped him to connect with Hispanic voters, including those in New Mexico. The moreover that Bush promised to reform America's immigration system in his second term, which surely increased Hispanic support towards his campaign.

And if you look at this article, an important part of New Mexico's economy is based on free trade, including trade with neighboring Mexico and NAFTA.

https://tradepartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/NM_TRADE_2013.pdf

In fact, since NAFTA's ratification, New Mexico's exports to Mexico and Canada have increased by $1.0  billion (878 percent). And John Kerry flip-flopped on NAFTA since he once supported the ratification of NAFTA and then was heavily critical of U.S. trade policy during the 2004 Democratic primaries.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kerrys-top-ten-flip-flops

And Bush also won New Mexico because he almost won the Bernalillo County (home to Albuquerque, the largest and most populous city in New Mexico) since Kerry won it by just 4 percentage points (51.5 % to Bush's 47.3 %) which is quite close compared to the results in all the following general election presidential contests in New Mexico and also Bush won the Sandoval County (home to Rio Rancho, the third largest city in New Mexico) by an even bigger margin than in 2000 (when the results in New Mexico were even closer than Florida) by 2.7 percentage points in 2004 compared to his 1.7 % margin of victory there in 2000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Mexico,_2004#By_county

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernalillo_County,_New_Mexico#Presidential

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandoval_County,_New_Mexico#Politics

[completely dead account]

From what I've heard, it was because Bush Jr had a moderate/liberal stance on illegal immigration which appealed to minorities. Bush Jr also got a pretty high share (in retrospect) of Asian American votes too.

[Mr. Smith]

John Kerry put the whole kitchen sink on Ohio.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bush was a champion for comprehensive immigration reform and therefore the state saw no reason to remove him.