Sask Party leadership election: Jan 27, 2018

[RogueBeaver]

Brad Wall is retiring from politics upon his successor's election.

[DL]

Its a done deal, Brad Wall will be succeeded by Brad Trost - its a perfect fit!

[MaxQue]

Its a done deal, Brad Wall will be succeeded by Brad Trost - its a perfect fit!

What is the deal with Western Conservatives and bigots? First, the interim leader in Alberta, now Trost.

[DC Al Fine]

So who are the potential candidates?

Its a done deal, Brad Wall will be succeeded by Brad Trost - its a perfect fit!

What is the deal with Western Conservatives and bigots? First, the interim leader in Alberta, now Trost.

[MaxQue]

So who are the potential candidates?

Its a done deal, Brad Wall will be succeeded by Brad Trost - its a perfect fit!

What is the deal with Western Conservatives and bigots? First, the interim leader in Alberta, now Trost.

Well, Trost pretty much promised to defund anything gay-related back in March.

[RogueBeaver]

CBC on potential candidates.

[mileslunn]

Gordon Wyant probably seems like the best choice to win back the lost voters especially considering they largely have a lock on Rural Saskatchewan, it is urban areas they need to win back support.  Don McMorris would have been a good choice had he not had his DUI record.  His son Mark McMorris is an Olympic snowboarder and with the leadership race right around the Olympics most likely that would help in name recognition, but he is probably too damaged.

Brad Trost may run, but he will go nowhere.  Most people know full well someone like him would ensure a lost.  Even in Alberta, he would probably lose as leader of the UCP against Notley (perhaps the Alberta Party might win then if Notley is still unpopular) so he will never get anywhere near power.

[adma]

Of course, had he not won the federal CPC leadership, Scheer would have been talked about as a potential Wall successor.

Is there a "Liberal" wing to the Sask Party, and if so, who'd be its standard-bearer?

[Njall]

Its a done deal, Brad Wall will be succeeded by Brad Trost - its a perfect fit!

What is the deal with Western Conservatives and bigots? First, the interim leader in Alberta, now Trost.

For what it's worth, I'm not a big Nathan Cooper fan, but it's a little disingenuous to uphold him as a bigot in the same vein as Brad Trost. At least Cooper is attempting to make up for his past bigoted views (he plans to march in the Calgary Pride Parade, for example). He could be doing more, but it's a start. On the other hand, we all remember Trost's disgraceful attitude towards LGBTQ pride generally.

[mileslunn]

Of course, had he not won the federal CPC leadership, Scheer would have been talked about as a potential Wall successor.

Is there a "Liberal" wing to the Sask Party, and if so, who'd be its standard-bearer?

Not really although the 8 MLAs who created the party were four PCs and four Liberals, but I would say the party is about 90% federal conservative and 10% federal liberal otherwise it's not as mixed as say the BC Liberals are who are around 1/3 federal liberal and 2/3 federal conservative. 

[Jeppe]

Tina Beaudry-Mellor is the first entrant of the race, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/tina-beaudry-mellor-leadership-bid-1.4247897

She's the current Social Services Minister and is a first term MLA.  She's my MLA and I really doubt she'd hold onto her seat, even if she was leader. The NDP's polling lead is huge in Regina, and Eric Grenier will likely have her down at least 20-30 points below the NDP candidate come the next provincial election, not exactly the kind of position you would want from a leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tina Beaudry-Mellor is the first entrant of the race, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/tina-beaudry-mellor-leadership-bid-1.4247897

She's the current Social Services Minister and is a first term MLA.  She's my MLA and I really doubt she'd hold onto her seat, even if she was leader. The NDP's polling lead is huge in Regina, and Eric Grenier will likely have her down at least 20-30 points below the NDP candidate come the next provincial election, not exactly the kind of position you would want from a leader.

If Grenier thinks she will lose by 20-30 then we will know for sure she will not lose by 20-30.

I like to think that we can do a better job of analysis then him.

[Jeppe]

Tina Beaudry-Mellor is the first entrant of the race, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/tina-beaudry-mellor-leadership-bid-1.4247897

She's the current Social Services Minister and is a first term MLA.  She's my MLA and I really doubt she'd hold onto her seat, even if she was leader. The NDP's polling lead is huge in Regina, and Eric Grenier will likely have her down at least 20-30 points below the NDP candidate come the next provincial election, not exactly the kind of position you would want from a leader.

If Grenier thinks she will lose by 20-30 then we will know for sure she will not lose by 20-30.

I like to think that we can do a better job of analysis then him.

Either way, she won by 5% back before Regina swung 35% against the Sask Party, she's toast, leader or not.

[MaxQue]

On an uniform swing, it would an NDP gain if the election is less than 59-33 for SP, so, she's probably toast no matter what.

[mileslunn]

It also assumes the polls stay where they are at, nonetheless even if the Saskatchewan Party does recover I would be quite shocked if they got up to 60% support provincewide as when you've been in power 13 years you will develop some baggage and some will want you gone.  I can see the Saskatchewan Party maybe doing as well as they did in 2007, that is doable, but getting what they got in 2011 and 2016 considering both were records seems highly unlikely.  She could move to another riding but they would be more a tacit admission the party expects to lose seats.

[Jeppe]

It also assumes the polls stay where they are at, nonetheless even if the Saskatchewan Party does recover I would be quite shocked if they got up to 60% support provincewide as when you've been in power 13 years you will develop some baggage and some will want you gone.  I can see the Saskatchewan Party maybe doing as well as they did in 2007, that is doable, but getting what they got in 2011 and 2016 considering both were records seems highly unlikely.  She could move to another riding but they would be more a tacit admission the party expects to lose seats.

She actually lives in a different provincial seat called, Regina Wascana Plains, the only Regina seat the Sask Party could forceivably win in 2020, due to it containing the fiscally conservative and wealthy neighbourhoods of Regina, along with a large exurban/rural population. Helps a bit that her current constituency is right next to that one, so it's not as glaring as Clark's jump from downtown Vancouver to Kelowna.

[RogueBeaver]

Convention set for January 27.

[Njall]

Today is the Sask Party's leadership convention. The five candidates still in the race are as follows (click here for a more in-depth description of the candidates):

• Tina Beaudry-Mellor: MLA for Regina University and former Minister of Social Services/Minister responsible for the Status of Women Office
• Ken Cheveldayoff: MLA for Saskatoon Silver Springs and former Minister (most recently; he's held a number of portfolios) of Parks, Culture, and Sport
• Alanna Koch: public servant, having most recently served as Deputy Minister to the Premier
• Sott Moe: MLA for Rosthern-Shellbrook and former Minister of the Environment
• Gord Wyant: MLA for Saskatoon Northwest and former Minister of Justice

Rob Clarke, the former Conservative MP for Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River was previously in the race, and although he has since dropped out (endorsing Cheveldayoff), his name remains on the ballot.

The party estimates that first ballot results will be available around 5:45 or 6:00pm local time tonight.

[Jeppe]

The 3 frontrunners are Cheveldayoff, Koch, and Scott Moe in that order. If Chevy doesn't have a large lead on the first ballot, we could see Koch or Moe overtake him, as there's a bit of a "Anybody but Chevy" movement going on.

[Njall]

First ballot results:

Beaudry-Mellor: 226 (1.32%)
Cheveldayoff: 4177 (24.34%)
Clarke: 48 (0.28%)
Koch: 4529 (26.39%)
Moe: 4483 (26.13%)
Wyant: 3696 (21.54%)

Quite surprising to see Cheveldayoff in third.

[Njall]

Second ballot results:

Beaudry-Mellor: 228 (1.33%)
Cheveldayoff: 4202 (24.49%)
Koch: 4533 (26.42%)
Moe: 4495 (26.20%)
Wyant: 3698 (21.56%)

[Njall]

Third ballot results:

Cheveldayoff: 4221 (24.62%)
Koch: 4598 (26.82%)
Moe: 4544 (26.51%)
Wyant: 3780 (22.05%)

[Njall]

Fourth ballot results:

Cheveldayoff: 4844 (29.51%)
Koch: 5591 (34.06%)
Moe: 5980 (36.43%)

At this point, I'd wager that Moe has it.

[136or142]

Fourth ballot results:

Cheveldayoff: 4844 (29.51%)
Koch: 5591 (34.06%)
Moe: 5980 (36.43%)

At this point, I'd wager that Moe has it.

According to wiki, Scott Moe killed a person

In 1997, he caused the death of one person in a highway traffic incident for which he was issued a ticket for driving without due care and attention.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Moe

Scott "Teddy" Moe  or Scott "Killer" Moe

Not a surprise he opposes carbon taxes (or carbon pricing,) he doesn't care about life.  I believe he's anti abortion though, which to his idiot supporters makes him 'pro life.'

[Njall]

Fifth ballot results:

Koch: 6914 (46.13%)
Moe: 8075 (53.87%)