I'll Be Back

[Senator Cris]

Democrats gain New Jersey, retain Virginia governorship

✓ Phil Murphy 58.8%
Kim Guadagno 39.9%

In the state of New Jersey, deeply unpopolar Gov. Chris Christie was term limited and it was not easy for Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno to run with that legacy on her shoulders. Democrat Phil Murphy easily gained this governorship from the Republicans.

✓ Ralph Northam 50.3%
Ed Gillespie 46.5%

After nearly defeating in a stunning upset popular Sen. Mark Warner in 2014, former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie decided to run for Governor. He ran a good campaign, but the state is more and more democrat as the time goes on and he wasn't able to beat the democrat candidate, Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam. Also Trump's low popularity in the state didn't help Gillespie.

Roy Moore becomes new Alabama Senator

✓ Roy Moore 56.4%
Robert Kennedy Jr. 43.6%

Former Chief Justice Roy Moore won the republican primary in Alabama. He finished in first place in the August primary with 38.3% of the vote and faced Sen. Luther Strange, who came in second with 25.8%, in the September runoff. Rep. Mo Brooks finished third with 17.6%. As of the runoff, ultraconservative Moore gained a 52.3-47.7 victory over Strange. In the general election, he faced democrat Robert Kennedy Jr. and won by a relatively comfortable margin, but not a whopping margin for a red state like Alabama.

President Trump deeply unpopular

As the time go on and the first 2018 primaries are starting, polls shows that President Trump is reaching his all time low level of popularity among americans. The most recent poll shows that 60% of Americans disapprove of the President, while just 34% approve of him.

Biden, Sanders not running in 2020. Warren leads early polls.

In early 2018, both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders announced that, despite early talks about their presidential ambitions, they will not seek the democratic nomination in 2020. Both said that it's time for new democratic leaders to shine and defeat togheter President Trump in both 2018 midterms and expecially in 2020.

In early polls, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds a lead, mostly because of higher name recognition than other potential candidates. The first candidate to declare candidacy, Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, is polled at 1% or worse. There is an high percentage of undecided democrats.

Democratic National Poll
Elizabeth Warren 17%
Tim Kaine 9%
Cory Booker 7%
Andrew Cuomo 7%
Kamala Harris 6%
Tulsi Gabbard 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand 5%
Martin O'Malley 3%
John Hickenlooper 3%
Steve Bullock 3%
Al Franken 3%
John Bel Edwards 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
John Delaney 1%

[Kamala]

The title makes me think this is a Hillary 2020 TL - can't wait to see where this goes!

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

My first thought was Ahnold primaries Donald after an amendment is passed, but I doubt it's that.

[TheSaint250]

My first thought was Ahnold primaries Donald after an amendment is passed, but I doubt it's that.

I just thought it was something Arnold-related just from the title.

Excited for this!

[_]

Please god be Arnold.

BREAK A CEILING THAT NEVER SHOULD HAVE EXISTED!

[TheSaint250]

Oh yeah I forgot:

NOT ROY MOORE!!!

[Senator Cris]

It's great to see so much interest for this! Thanks!

[Senator Cris]

Hillary Clinton not running in 2020

During a press conference in New York City, 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton announced that she won't be running again for President after failing to beat Fmr. President Obama in 2008 primaries and President Trump in 2016 election. Clinton said that she wanted to share time with his family and that was time for a new generation of democrats to take over the party. She said that there are so much great prospects for 2020 and beyond.

Flake facing strong primary challenger in Arizona, rumours: "Trump is secretely supporting Ward"

Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, a vocal opponent of some of Trump policies, is facing a strong primary challenger: Kelli Ward. She already primaried Sen. McCain in 2016 and did better than expected, reaching almost 40% of support against McCain's 52%. Polls showing Ward competitive against Flake: it's a very close race and some polls are putting Ward ahead of Flake and some rumours suggest that President Trump is secretely backing Ward's bid against Flake. In fact, despite some pressure from the establishment to endorse Flake, Trump refused to do so and remained neutral, while some donors close to the President donated to Ward campaign.
Another moderate republican who's facing a primary challenger is Sen. Heller in Nevada, but here the incumbent senator is favored. The challenger is perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian. Democrats are running competitive candidates in both states: Rep. Sinema in Arizona and Rep. Rosen in Nevada. Those seat will be hard to defend for the Republicans

Early 2018 analysis: not a great map for Dems, best for them is a 50-50 split Senate

Some early analysis of the incoming Senate elections shows that the Senate map this year is not so great, as the only two real pick-up opportunities for the democrats are Arizona and Nevada, while the Dems will have to defend several seats in red states or competitive states. As of democrats incumbents in red states, there are North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, West Virginia and Indiana. The democratic incumbents are favored in Montana, West Virginia, while the Republicans, despite Trump being unpopular, are running close races in Missouri, North Dakota and Indiana. The democrats seems also favored in purple states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Trump is toxic in almost all of these states (maybe with the exception of Ohio) and this factor is not helping Republican challengers.

[Senator Cris]

Flake defeated in Arizona Primary

✓ Kelli Ward 50.7%
Jeff Flake 49.3%

In a stunning upset for the Republican establishment (less for President Trump), incumbent Senator Jeff Flake was defeated by conservative challenger Kelli Ward in Arizona primary. Early polls shows a close race among Ward and Kyrsten Sinema. In some polls, Sinema is leading the republican candidate.

Kasich considering 2020 run, early polls show him ahead in NH

According to various reports, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is considering challenging President Trump in 2020 primaries. The governor will be making a decision by the start of 2019. The last NH polls shows that Kasich is competitive in New Hampshire, while the President is ahead by a whopping margin in Iowa.

Republican National Poll
Donald Trump 60%
John Kasich 16%

Republican Iowa Poll
Donald Trump 68%
John Kasich 8%

Republican New Hampshire Poll
John Kasich 39%
Donald Trump 35%

[Senator Cris]

Senate rankings for competitive seats

Arizona (Trump 48.1% Clinton 44.6%) Lean Democrat
Kelly Ward defeated incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake in the republican primary. The democratic nominee is Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. In the last polls, Sinema is opening a lead over Ward. Looks like the republicans really screwed this race.

Polls: Sinema 48% Ward 44%

Florida (Trump 48.6% Clinton 47.4%) Lean Democrat
Republican governor Rick Scott is term limited and decided to run against incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Trump won this state in 2016, but the national environment, Trump's unpopularity in the state and Nelson's popularity are not helping Scott to make this race really competitive.

Polls: Nelson 49% Scott 45%

Indiana (Trump 56.5% Clinton 37.5%) Toss-up
Incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly is running for re-election and will face Rep. Todd Rokita in the general election. This is Mike Pence's home state and Trump won it bigly in 2016, but the environment is helping Donnelly. This race is really competitive, Pence is campaigning for Rokita, but the incumbent Senator is holding a very small lead over Rokita.

Polls: Donnelly 48% Rokita 46%

Michigan (Trump 47.3% Clinton 47%) Lean Democrat
Incumnbent Sen. Stabenow is reciving a challenge from republican Kid Rock, very similar to Trump, who surprisingly won this state back in 2016, was somewhat competitive in early polls, but now Stabenow opened a clear lead.

Polls: Stabenow 50% Rock 44%

Missouri (Trump 56.4% Clinton 37.9%) Toss-up
Maybe this race is the most close race all over the country. Incumbent Claire McCaskill is running for another term and the republican challenger is State Attorney General Josh Hawley. Despite the national environment and Trump, Hawley is keeping this race very competitive.

Polls: McCaskill 48% Hawley 47%

Montana (Trump 55.7% Clinton 35.4%) Lean Democrat
Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is running for re-election and will be challenged by republican State Auditor Matthew Rosendale. Despite this state being a republican one, Tester is still popular and is also favored by the national environment.

Polls: Tester 49% Rosendale 46%

Nevada (Clinton 47.9% Trump 45.5%) Toss-up
Incumbent Sen. Dean Heller won his primary and is facing Rep. Jacky Rosen in the general election. This race is really competitive, but Rosen seems to have a slightly advantage because of the national environment.

Polls: Rosen 48% Heller 46%

Ohio (Trump 51.3% Clinton 43.2%) Lean Democrat
Republican Josh Mandel is challenging incumbent democrat Sherrod Brown, a potential 2020 contender, in what is a rematch of the 2012 race. Despite Trump's large victory in Ohio in 2016 and that the state is switching more and more to the right, Brown has an advantage.

Polls: Brown 49% Mandel 46%

North Dakota (Trump 63% Clinton 27.2%) Lean Democrat
Incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is running for re-election in a safe republican state. She ran a great campaign also the national environment helped her to make this race lean democrat during all the campaign. She is running against republican Rick Berg, for what is a rematch of the 2012 race.

Polls: Heitkamp 49% Berg 45%

Pennsylvania (Trump 48.2% Clinton 47.5%) Lean Democrat
This is another state won by Trump in 2016, but despite this and despite having a strong challenger like Rep. Lou Barletta, the incumbent democrat Sen. Bob Casey is holding a lead. Barletta was very competitive at the start of the campaign, but as the time gone on, Casey opened a clear lead. Trump's unpopularity is not helping the republican nominee.

Polls: Casey 50% Barletta 45%

Virginia (Clinton 49.8% Trump 44.4%) Safe Democrat
Virginia is becoming more and more a democratic state, Trump is deeply unpopular in the state, the national environment is good for democrats and the incumbent Senator is popular: all reasons why Sen. Tim Kaine, 2016 Clinton VP pick, is leading by so much against republican Corey Stewart, who, despite a strong showing in 2017 gubernatiorial GOP primary, wasn't never competitive against Kaine.

Polls: Kaine 56% Stewart 40%

West Virginia (Trump 67.9% Clinton 26.2%) Lean Democrat
This one of the few state where Trump is holding a great approval rating, Trump's message here reasoneted well and Gov. Justice switched from Democrats to Republicans, but democrats like Manchin are still popular and competitive here, expecially in a midterm year when the environment is so good for democrats. Republican Rep. Evan Jenkins

Polls: Manchin 50% Jenkins 46%

Wisconsin (Trump 47.2% Clinton 46.5%) Likely Democrat
That's another state of the so called “blue wall” that was won by Trump in 2016. In the governor race, republicans are doing well, but not so in the senate race, where incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is leading republican Kevin Nicholson.

Polls: Baldwin 52% Nicholson 44%

The best Democrats can hope for is a 50-50 draw, but Vice President Pence would break the tie for the Republicans.

Republicans 50
Democrats 47
Toss-up 3

[Kamala]

What about North Dakota?

[Senator Cris]

What about North Dakota?

Oops, I forgot that. Updated.

[Progressive]

Very cool. I wonder if Arnold runs OR if "I'll be back" is what Trump says when he loses...

[Senator Cris]

Governor rankings for competitive states

Alaska (Trump 51.3% Clinton 36.6%) Toss-up
Incumbent Governor Bill Walker is running for re-election as an independent candidate, while the democrats are running former Senator Mark Begich and republicans nominated perennial candidate  Joe Miller. Recent polls are showing a competitive race among Walker and Begich, while Miller is in third place.

Polls: Walker 36% Begich 33% Miller 24%

Colorado (Clinton 48.2% Trump 43.3%) Lean Democrat
Incumbent Gov. Hickenlooper is term-limited and democrats nominated U.S. Representative Jared Poles, while the republicans are running George Brauchler. Trump is toxic here, and this thing is not helping the republicans.

Polls: Poles 49% Brauchler 46%

Florida (Trump 48.6% Clinton 47.4%) Lean Democrat
Incumbent Gov. Rick Scott is term-limited. The republicans nominated Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putman, while the Democrats are running former Rep. Gwen Graham. The polls show Graham ahead

Polls: Graham 49% Putman 45%

Illinois (Clinton 55.2% Trump 38.4%) Lean Democrat
Incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner is running for re-election. He's not popular right now, also the national environment in a democratic state like Illinois is not helping him. The democratic candidate J. B. Pritzker is ahead in polls.

Polls: Pritzker 51% Rauner 45%

Kansas (Trump 56.2% Clinton 35.7%) Toss-up
Incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback resigned. As of the republicans, Secretary of State Kris Kobach defeated Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer in a very contested primary race. The democratic nominee is Carl Brewer, while Independent Greg Orman is running and is taking some votes from both sides, expecially from democrats.

Polls: Kobach 38% Orman 36% Brewer 23%

Maine (Clinton 47.8% Trump 44.9%) Toss-up
Incumbent Gov. Paul LePage can't run for another term. The republican nominee is Mary Mayhew. The democrats are running Attorney General Janet Mills, while there is an independent candidate: it's Terry Hawes. Most recent polls are showing a close race among Mills and Hawes, while Mayhew is in third place.

Polls: Hawes 33% Mills 30% Mayhew 25%

Maryland (Clinton 60.3% Trump 33.9%) Lean Republican
Incumbent and popular Gov. Larry Hogan is running for re-election and, despite Maryland being a democratic state and the national environment, is leading democrat Benjamin Jealous.

Polls: Hogan 52% Jealous 45%

Massachusetts (Clinton 60% Trump 32.8%) Likely Republican
Same as Republican Charlie Baker, the most popular governor in the country, is running for a second term and the polls are showing that he is ahead of democratic candidate Setti Warren.

Polls: Baker 54% Warren 44%

Michigan (Trump 47.3% Clinton 47%) Toss-up
Incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder can't run for another term. The republicans are running Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, while the democratic nominee is Representative Debbie Dingell. This is a very competitive race, both candidates might win.

Polls: Dingell 49% Calley 48%

Nevada (Clinton 47.9% Trump 45.5%) Toss-up
Republican incumbent governor Brian Sandoval is term-limited. Republicans are running Attorney General Adam Laxalt, while Democrats have nominated former Secretary of State Ross Miller. The race is seen as one of the most competitive in the country.

Polls: Miller 49% Laxalt 48%

New Hampshire (Clinton 46.8% Trump 46.5%) Toss-up
Incumbent republican Chris Sununu is running for re-election and will face democrat Colin Van Ostern. This is another competitive race, but the republican, who is popular among NH voters, is slightly favored.

Polls: Sununu 50% Van Ostern 48%

Ohio (Trump 51.3% Clinton 43.2%) Lean Republican
Gov. John Kasich, who's considering a 2020 bid, is term limited and can't run for re-election. After an highly contested primary, Pubs nominated former Sen. Mike DeWine. He defeated Jim Renacci, Jon Husted and Mary Taylor, backed by Kasich, in the primary. Democratic nominee is Betty Sutton. The race is competitive, but DeWine has the advantage here. The Ohio's shift toward the right is also helping DeWine.

Polls: DeWine 49% Sutton 46%

Pennsylvania (Trump 48.2% Clinton 47.5%) Likely Democrat
Gov. Tom Wolf is running for another term and will face Republican State Senator Scott Wagner in the general election. The race wasn't really competitive during the year.

Polls: Wolf 52% Wagner 45%

Vermont (Clinton 56.8% Trump 30.3%) Lean Republican
The 2018 race will be a rematch of the 2016 one, as incumbent Gov. Phil Scott will face Democrat Sue Minter in the general elections. Despite Vermont being one of the strongest democratic states in the nation, he's popular and is ahead by a not large but reassuring margin.

Polls: Scott 50% Minter 46%

Wisconsin (Trump 47.2% Clinton 46.5%) Toss-up
This is another state that is shifting to the right, but incumbent Gov. Scott Walker, with the environment favoring the democrats, is in a competitive race against Democrat Tony Evers.

Polls: Walker 49% Evers 47%

[Senator Cris]

7 PM: "The polls are about to close in four states. Will the Republicans be able to defend their 2 competitive seats tonight? Will the democrats be able to defend all their seats in traditional republican and purple states? Will they be able to split the Senate 50-50? Will the Republicans keep the control of the House and how many governorships will they lose tonight?"

A few hours later...

[rpryor03]

Kasich 2020! Woo!

[Senator Cris]

Republicans to retain House and Senate

Republicans 51
Democrats 49

At the end of the night, the Senate net was DEM +1. The democrats gained two republican seats: Arizona, where ultraconservative Kelly Ward was defeated by Kyrsten Sinema, and Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Dean Heller was defeated by Rep. Jacky Rosen. The democrats also retained almost all competitive seats, with the exception of Missouri, where incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, despite the latest polls showing a small lead for her and the national environment, was defeated by republican Attorney General Josh Hawley. Democrats retained all their seat in the Rust Belt, where President Trump did very well in 2016: Donnelly was re-elected in Indiana, Stabenow re-elected in Michigan, Sherrod Brown (a potential 2020 contender) re-elected in Ohio, Manchin re-elected in West Virginia and Tammy Baldwin, a potential 2020 VP choice, re-elected in Wisconsin.
The Republicans also retained the House of Representatives: the Democrats gained 20 House seats, just 4 short of a majority. Right now, Republicans have 221 seats, Democrats have 214.

Results of competitive Senate races:

Arizona: ✓ Sinema 51.5% Ward 46.7%
Florida: ✓ Nelson 52.5% Scott 46.9%
Indiana: ✓ Donnelly 50.7% Rokita 47.8%
Michigan: ✓ Stabenow 53.6% Rock 45.2%
Missouri: ✓ Hawley 49.5% McCaskill 49.4%
Montana: ✓ Tester 50.5% Rosendale 47.6%
Nevada: ✓ Rosen 49.4% Heller 48.3%
North Dakota: ✓ Heitkamp 51.5% Berg 47.3%
Ohio: ✓ Brown 52% Mandel 47.6%
Pennsylvania: ✓ Casey 52.6% Barletta 46.1%
West Virginia: ✓ Manchin 51.9% Jenkins 47.3%
Wisconsin: ✓ Baldwin 54.3% Nicholson 44.8%

[Senator Cris]

Democrats gain 6 governorships.

Republicans 26
Democrats 22
Independents 2

Democrats gained 6 governorships: 5 from Republicans in Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats also gained Alaska, where former Sen. Begich defeated Independent Gov. Bill Walker. Independents gained 2 governorships from Republicans: Kansas, where Greg Orman defeated Kris Kobach, and Maine, where Terry Hawes defeated Janet Mills. Despite losing 7 states, Republicans retained various states, including some traditional democratic states like Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont.
At the end of the night, Republicans were still the major party but went from 33 states to 26 states. Democrats gained 6 and went from 16 to 22, while Independents gained 1 and went from only 1 to 2.

Alaska: ✓ Begich 36.7% Walker 35.4% Miller 23.4%
Colorado: ✓ Poles 50.8% Brauchler 46.5%
Florida: ✓ Graham 52.4% Putman 47.3%
Illinois: ✓ Pritzker 52.8% Rauner 46.1%
Kansas: ✓ Orman 40.6% Kobach 38.7% Brewer 19.4%
Maine: ✓ Hawes 38.8% Mills 33.7% Mayhew 24.6%
Maryland: ✓ Hogan 51.8% Jealous 47.5%
Massachusetts: ✓ Baker 54.9% Warren 44.2%
Michigan: ✓ Dingell 50.2% Calley 48.5%
Nevada: ✓ Miller 49.1% Laxalt 47.7%
New Hampshire: ✓ Sununu 49.9% Van Ostern 48.7%
Ohio: ✓ DeWine 50.4% Sutton 48.6%
Pennsylvania: ✓ Wolf 52.9% Wagner 46.8%
Vermont: ✓ Scott 50.9% Minter 47.5%
Wisconsin: ✓ Walker 50.3% Evers 48.8%

[Senator Cris]

Hickenlooper not running for President, will challenge Gardner

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, considered a possible candidate for the 2020 democratic primaries, announced that he's not running for President, but that will instead challenge incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner in the 2020 Colorado Senate election. Gardner is considered the most vulnerable among the 2020 incumbents. This race starts as Lean D.

Tim Kaine to stay in Washington, not running

During a TV appearance on Meet The Press, Virginia Sen. and 2016 vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine announced that he'll not run for President in 2020. "Serving Virginia is the biggest honor of my life and I want to continue to do it for the years to come" said Kaine.

New polls: Warren leads, close race for second

Democratic national poll
Elizabeth Warren 19%
Cory Booker 10%
Kamala Harris 9%
Andrew Cuomo 8%
Kirsten Gillibrand 6%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%
Steve Bullock 4%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Al Franken 3%
John Bel Edwards 2%
John Delaney 1%

[Senator Cris]

#2: Kamala Harris

During a rally in Los Angeles, California Sen. Kamala Harris announced that she is running for President. She was elected to the Senate in 2016 and that's considered relatively soon for a run, but another one that made the same move was elected President in 2008. Harris mostly focused on defeating President Trump and for the necessity of hope for the country. Currently she is polled in third place behind other two potential candidates, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker.

#3: Andrew Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo is in. The Governor of New York was the third major candidate to announce a run. Cuomo said that he's running as a reformer with results. He's polled in high low digits and it might be difficult with another New Yorker, Sen. Gillibrand, ready to announce a run. He's also not very popular with progressives, and this might be a factor during the primary season.

#4: Steve Bullock

Finally, conservadems have a voice in the primary. It's Steve Bullock, current Governor of Montana. His appeal is the appeal of a candidate that won several times in a traditional republican state like Montana, so a tested candidate, that might be the best to run against President Trump. On the opposite, it's necessary to remember that progressives will be fundamental in this primary and Bullock is not exactly the best fit for them.