OH-07 & OH-14
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:27:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  OH-07 & OH-14
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: OH-07 & OH-14  (Read 1107 times)
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 13, 2017, 01:29:52 PM »
« edited: August 14, 2017, 12:23:19 PM by BuckeyeNut »

As is well known, Ohio is badly gerrymandered, but if early fundraising is any indicator--and it usually is--OH-07 and OH-14 may well end up being competitive. This is somewhat surprising because if two Congressional races in Ohio were going to end up being competitive, the conventional wisdom would suggest it be some combination of OH-01, OH-10, and OH-16.

In OH-14, labor lawyer Betsy Rader has raised $132k to incumbent Dave Joyce's $169k. Rader has $80k in the bank, while Joyce has $389k in the bank. In OH-07, former Navy pilot and NGO executive Ken Harbaugh managed to narrowly outraise Bob Gibbs, $192k to $116k. Unfortunately, since Gibbs hasn't been in a serious race since 2010, he's sitting on nearly $1 mil, while Harbaugh is only sitting on $141k. Still, both Rader and Harbaugh are doing much better than one might expect.
Logged
GlobeSoc
The walrus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2017, 01:35:12 PM »

What could be making them potentially competitive?
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,124
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2017, 01:44:41 PM »

could OH-15 be competitive?
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2017, 01:50:43 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2017, 01:52:22 PM by BuckeyeNut »

What could be making them potentially competitive?

Well, both candidates went to Yale Law School, so that's helping with the fundraising.

Harbaugh is running in a very conservative district, but his military background is serving him really well. Rader, meanwhile, is running in a decently competitive district where the ODP has repeatedly run into recruiting failtures.


Unfortunately, no. Especially now that Stivers is serving as NRCC chairman.
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,234
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2017, 05:36:11 PM »

I could see OH-14 being competitive in a wave year, but I don't see OH-07 flipping even in a great year for Democrats.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2017, 09:15:50 PM »

What could be making them potentially competitive?

Well, both candidates went to Yale Law School, so that's helping with the fundraising.

Harbaugh is running in a very conservative district, but his military background is serving him really well. Rader, meanwhile, is running in a decently competitive district where the ODP has repeatedly run into recruiting failtures.


Unfortunately, no. Especially now that Stivers is serving as NRCC chairman.

The 15th district has a pvi of + 7 Republican. I'm actually surprised it's that low and question whether that stat from Wikipedia is up to date. Regardless, it is more than gerrymandered enough to keep it safe R even without Stivers running.

Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2017, 10:01:51 PM »

I could see OH-14 being competitive in a wave year, but I don't see OH-07 flipping even in a great year for Democrats.

OH-14 is definitely a great place to be running wave insurance, at the bare minimum. OH-07 is definitely very tricky, but Zack Space was able to win in the now defunct OH-18 in both '06 and '08, and it encompassed much of the same territory. Which is to say, it definitely doesn't hurt to be having such a credible candidate running. At absolute worst, it causes Gibbs to spend money.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2017, 10:08:34 PM »

What could be making them potentially competitive?

Well, both candidates went to Yale Law School, so that's helping with the fundraising.

Harbaugh is running in a very conservative district, but his military background is serving him really well. Rader, meanwhile, is running in a decently competitive district where the ODP has repeatedly run into recruiting failtures.


Unfortunately, no. Especially now that Stivers is serving as NRCC chairman.

The 15th district has a pvi of + 7 Republican. I'm actually surprised it's that low and question whether that stat from Wikipedia is up to date. Regardless, it is more than gerrymandered enough to keep it safe R even without Stivers running.


Keep in mind, Athens is in the district. That's probably what keeps the PVI at "only" R+7.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2017, 10:09:49 PM »

What could be making them potentially competitive?

Well, both candidates went to Yale Law School, so that's helping with the fundraising.

Harbaugh is running in a very conservative district, but his military background is serving him really well. Rader, meanwhile, is running in a decently competitive district where the ODP has repeatedly run into recruiting failtures.


Unfortunately, no. Especially now that Stivers is serving as NRCC chairman.

The 15th district has a pvi of + 7 Republican. I'm actually surprised it's that low and question whether that stat from Wikipedia is up to date. Regardless, it is more than gerrymandered enough to keep it safe R even without Stivers running.

Keep in mind, Athens is in the district. That's probably what keeps the PVI at "only" R+7.

I'm fairly sure OH-15 was R+5 before 2016, FWIW.
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,663
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2017, 11:11:25 PM »

Why did the other OH thread get locked BuckeyeNut?
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2017, 11:46:58 PM »

Why did the other OH thread get locked BuckeyeNut?

What other Ohio thread? The OH-SEN thread is open, AFAIK, and the 2018 mega-thread is open over in the Gubernatorial elections... But talk about two specific Congressional races didn't belong in either.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2017, 01:41:34 AM »

What could be making them potentially competitive?

Well, both candidates went to Yale Law School, so that's helping with the fundraising.

Harbaugh is running in a very conservative district, but his military background is serving him really well. Rader, meanwhile, is running in a decently competitive district where the ODP has repeatedly run into recruiting failtures.


Unfortunately, no. Especially now that Stivers is serving as NRCC chairman.

The 15th district has a pvi of + 7 Republican. I'm actually surprised it's that low and question whether that stat from Wikipedia is up to date. Regardless, it is more than gerrymandered enough to keep it safe R even without Stivers running.


Keep in mind, Athens is in the district. That's probably what keeps the PVI at "only" R+7.

Not to mention portions of Franklin County. Expertly crafted portions to include Stivers residence in Upper Arlington while avoiding every possible pocket of liberal and / or minority neighborhoods before linking up with the rest of Southeast Ohio, but still Franklin County none-the-less.

Hell, the district doesn't even include all of Athens County. That's how gerrymandered it is.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2017, 01:42:15 AM »

What could be making them potentially competitive?

Well, both candidates went to Yale Law School, so that's helping with the fundraising.

Harbaugh is running in a very conservative district, but his military background is serving him really well. Rader, meanwhile, is running in a decently competitive district where the ODP has repeatedly run into recruiting failtures.


Unfortunately, no. Especially now that Stivers is serving as NRCC chairman.

The 15th district has a pvi of + 7 Republican. I'm actually surprised it's that low and question whether that stat from Wikipedia is up to date. Regardless, it is more than gerrymandered enough to keep it safe R even without Stivers running.


Keep in mind, Athens is in the district. That's probably what keeps the PVI at "only" R+7.

Not to mention portions of Franklin County. Expertly crafted portions to include Stivers residence in Upper Arlington while avoiding every possible pocket of liberal and / or minority neighborhoods before linking up with the rest of Southeast Ohio, but still Franklin County none-the-less.

Hell, the district doesn't even include all of Athens County. That's how gerrymandered it is.
Logged
Rjjr77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,994
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2017, 07:09:01 AM »

Why did the other OH thread get locked BuckeyeNut?

What other Ohio thread? The OH-SEN thread is open, AFAIK, and the 2018 mega-thread is open over in the Gubernatorial elections... But talk about two specific Congressional races didn't belong in either.

the OH Sen thread is locked.
Logged
Rjjr77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,994
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2017, 07:09:48 AM »

I don't think OH 14 is in play, with the way the district is, and are OH dems concerned that Betsy Rader isn't really a great candidate for a playable seat?
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2017, 08:04:34 AM »

I don't think OH 14 is in play, with the way the district is, and are OH dems concerned that Betsy Rader isn't really a great candidate for a playable seat?

OH-14 would definitely be in play with a strong Democratic candidate.  Rader has a lot to prove, but at least she's actually raising money Tongue  I'd prefer an elected official from Lake County, but this a step in the right direction.  As for OH-7, I've always maintained that seat could flip in a wave with the right Democrat.
Logged
Rjjr77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,994
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2017, 09:18:34 AM »

I don't think OH 14 is in play, with the way the district is, and are OH dems concerned that Betsy Rader isn't really a great candidate for a playable seat?

OH-14 would definitely be in play with a strong Democratic candidate.  Rader has a lot to prove, but at least she's actually raising money Tongue  I'd prefer an elected official from Lake County, but this a step in the right direction.  As for OH-7, I've always maintained that seat could flip in a wave with the right Democrat.

Ugh i did one of those brain fart things where I meant to say OH-7 isnt in play. 14 is definitely gettable, but is Rader the one that gets it? i dont think shes got the chops...
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2017, 10:02:55 AM »

If Rader was fundraising like Harbaugh, I think we could say she's favored in a matter of months. As is, I agree with X. She's got potential, we'll see where she winds up.

OH-07 is a terrible district for Dems, but I could see Harbaugh pull it off is '18 really is anything like '06. Though Gibbs is no Bob Ney... If he does win, I have trouble seeing him keep his seat past 2022. If he loses, he could maybe run for the state legislature. Since he lives in Avon, I'm fairly certain he falls into Nate Manning's district, which ideally the GOP won't hold after this year, but you never know.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2017, 10:30:07 PM »

In the Canton newspaper, the Ohio 7th's largest, Gibbs echoed Trump stating "both sides" we're responsible for violence in C-Ville. Harbaugh is going after him hard. I'm trying to not to get my hopes up, especially this early, but Harbaugh might be the new Zack Space.
Logged
Rjjr77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,994
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2017, 03:33:04 PM »

In the Canton newspaper, the Ohio 7th's largest, Gibbs echoed Trump stating "both sides" we're responsible for violence in C-Ville. Harbaugh is going after him hard. I'm trying to not to get my hopes up, especially this early, but Harbaugh might be the new Zack Space.

Gibbs beat space by 13 points
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2017, 03:54:39 PM »

In the Canton newspaper, the Ohio 7th's largest, Gibbs echoed Trump stating "both sides" we're responsible for violence in C-Ville. Harbaugh is going after him hard. I'm trying to not to get my hopes up, especially this early, but Harbaugh might be the new Zack Space.

Gibbs beat space by 13 points

That would be a significant gain. Though I'm sure if Gibbs has ever really had to campaign, even as a State legislator, aside from in 2010. Still not trying to get hopeful, but he could fall asleep at the wheel.

If/when Harbaugh fails, he should make a play for the 55th State House district.
Logged
Rjjr77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,994
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2017, 11:08:09 AM »

In the Canton newspaper, the Ohio 7th's largest, Gibbs echoed Trump stating "both sides" we're responsible for violence in C-Ville. Harbaugh is going after him hard. I'm trying to not to get my hopes up, especially this early, but Harbaugh might be the new Zack Space.

Gibbs beat space by 13 points

That would be a significant gain. Though I'm sure if Gibbs has ever really had to campaign, even as a State legislator, aside from in 2010. Still not trying to get hopeful, but he could fall asleep at the wheel.

If/when Harbaugh fails, he should make a play for the 55th State House district.

He'd have to be running in this cycle with Nathan manning running for senate, and my understanding gayle manning not flipping back. That's pretty much a lock to go D, unless another manning crops up
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2017, 04:36:06 PM »

In the Canton newspaper, the Ohio 7th's largest, Gibbs echoed Trump stating "both sides" we're responsible for violence in C-Ville. Harbaugh is going after him hard. I'm trying to not to get my hopes up, especially this early, but Harbaugh might be the new Zack Space.

Gibbs beat space by 13 points

That would be a significant gain. Though I'm sure if Gibbs has ever really had to campaign, even as a State legislator, aside from in 2010. Still not trying to get hopeful, but he could fall asleep at the wheel.

If/when Harbaugh fails, he should make a play for the 55th State House district.

He'd have to be running in this cycle with Nathan manning running for senate, and my understanding gayle manning not flipping back. That's pretty much a lock to go D, unless another manning crops up

My understanding is that Nathan Manning's sister will run.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.