Will Trump get more or fewer primary votes in 2020 than he got in 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump got ~14 million votes in the 2016 primaries (depending on how you count...estimates vary).  This was about 45% of the total votes cast in the 2016 GOP primaries.  Will he get more or fewer primary votes next time around?

Things to consider:

1) It's always possible that Trump will drop out of the race at some point between now and 2020.

2) Historically, incumbent presidents who are essentially unchallenged for renomination actually get fewer votes in the primaries the second time around, because no one turns out to vote if the nomination isn't really contested.  E.g., Obama got more votes in the 2008 primaries than in 2012, because there was no point voting in the Dem. primaries in 2012.  Same with GW Bush and Bill Clinton.  But GHW Bush got more primary votes in 1992 then 1988, because Buchanan's candidacy actually prompted Bush supporters to show up to vote in the primaries.

3) OTOH, Trump only got 45% of the primary vote last time, which is lower than any of those previous recent presidents, so I guess he has room to grow, even if he doesn't face a serious challenge.

4) OTOH, turnout in the GOP primaries last time was higher than normal, so it might take a lot to replicate that.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

It all just depends on 2018.

If the GOP barely wins any seats in 2018 (say, they only gain a couple) and lose the House, then assuming Trump even makes it there is going to be a few primary challengers.

If the GOP gets a supermajority (entirely possible) and only loses a few House seats, Trump's political capital will be proven beyond a reasonable doubt so he'll coast through the 2020 primaries.

So:

IF THE GOP HAS A BAD 2018 - they only gain - or even lose - a seat or 2 even when the map favors them HEAVILY, and the House is flipped, Trump faces tough primary competition - not enough to defeat him but enough to damage him like how Kennedy damaged Carter in 1980 and Buchanan damaged Bush in 1992.

Trump gets 65% of the popular vote, with around 12 million votes.

IF THE GOP HAS AN OK 2018 - they only gain 3-5 seats in the Senate, and barely hangs on to the House majority. We may see a half-hearted primary challenge.

Trump gets 80% of the popular vote, with about 8 million votes.

IF THE GOP HAS A GREAT 2018 - they get a Supermajority, and lose only a couple House seats, then I doubt we will see a primary challenger outside of a few gimmicks.

Trump gets 95% of the popular vote, with about 6 million votes.

[Spark]

About the same

[SNJ1985]

It depends on whether or not a serious challenger emerges.

[TheSaint250]

I'd say fewer because:

A. Primary challenger
B. Turnout is usually lower with incumbent presidents